TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(1)（在线收听）

So what if there were a highly obvious problem right in front of you?

假如有一个非常明显的问题摆在你面前，

One that everyone was talking about, one that affected you directly.

一个所有人都在讨论的，直接影响你的问题。

Would you do everything within your power to fix things before they got worse? Don't be so sure.

请问你会在事情变得更糟糕之前，尽你所能去解决它吗？不要太确定你的答案。

We are all much more likely than any of us would like to admit to miss what's right in front of our eyes.

我们比那些肯承认自己会错过的人更有可能错过那些在眼前发生的事情。

And in fact, we're sometimes most likely to turn away from things

而且就事实上来说，有时我们更有可能逃避事情的原因

precisely because of the threat that they represent to us, in business, life and the world.

正是来自这些事情给我们的，在事业方面，生活方面，乃至世界方面的风险。

So I want to give you an example from my world, economic policy.

我想举一个我身边的例子——经济政策。

So when Alan Greenspan was head of the Federal Reserve, his entire job was to watch out for problems in the US economy

当阿兰·格林斯潘还是联邦储备局局长的时候，他的整个工作就是小心地监督美国经济的潜在问题，

and to make sure that they didn't spin out of control.

并确保它们没有失去控制。

So, after 2006, when real estate prices peaked, more and more and more respected leaders and institutions

所以，2006年以后，当房地产价格达到顶峰的时候，越来越多有名望的领导人和机构

started to sound the alarm bells about risky lending and dangerous market bubbles.

开始敲响风险贷款和危险市场泡沫的警钟。