2021年经济学人 飙升的能源成本如何阻碍经济复苏（1）（在线收听）

Finance and Economics

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How soaring energy costs could hobble the recovery

飙升的能源成本如何阻碍经济复苏

FUEL PRICES over the past month show the same vertiginous upward slope as a covid-19 case count during a particularly brutal wave.

过去一个月的期货价格显示出与残酷的冠状病毒病例数量一样令人眩晕的上升比率。

Coal and gas prices have touched all-time highs.

煤炭和天然气价格已经触及历史新高。

Asian spot prices for gas have jumped by nearly 1,000% in the past year.

在过去的一年里，亚洲的天然气现货价格上涨了近1000%。

The cost of oil has soared as shortages of other fuels have pushed up demand for crude.

由于其他燃料的短缺推高了原油需求，石油成本飙升。

Surging energy costs are in many respects an expression of the same phenomenon driving supply-chain backlogs all over the world.

飙升的能源成本在很多方面都体现了同样的现象，推动了全球供应链的积压。

An unexpectedly strong rebound in demand has run headlong into stagnant supply.

需求出人意料地反弹强劲，导致供应停滞不前。

Disruptions, such as shortfalls in hydroelectric-power production caused by droughts, have exacerbated the shortages.

干旱导致的水电生产短缺等问题加剧了供应短缺。

So has the rush to boost low inventories in response to the energy crunch.

为应对能源危机而急于增加低库存的做法也是如此。

But surging fuel prices are also more ominous than supply-chain woes.

但燃料价格飙升比供应链问题更令人头大。

Past energy shocks have been associated not only with inflation, but deep recessions, too, as exemplified by the economic travails of the 1970s.

过去的能源冲击不仅与通货膨胀有关，还与深度衰退联系在一起，上世纪70年代的经济难题就是例证。

What does the latest crunch hold in store?

最新的危机将会带来什么呢？

The inflationary consequences of costly energy are already apparent.

昂贵的能源带来的通胀后果已经很明显了。

In the euro area, headline annual inflation jumped to 3.4% in September, thanks to a 17.4% leap in energy costs.

在欧元区，由于能源成本激增17.4%，9月份年度通胀率跃升至3.4%。

Underlying "core" inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) rose by a more modest 1.9%.

潜在的“核心”通胀（不包括食品和能源价格）上升了1.9%。

In America underlying inflation ran hotter in September, at 4%.

在美国，潜在的通货膨胀率在9月份更高，达到了4%。

But a 24.8% increase in energy costs pushed the headline rate up even higher, to 5.4%.

但24.8%的能源成本涨幅将整体通胀率推高至5.4%。

These figures are likely to rise further in coming months, since rocketing fuel prices in October have not yet made their way into the statistics.

这些数字在未来几个月可能会进一步上升，因为10月份飞涨的燃油价格尚未计入统计数据。

The contribution of energy to inflation will begin to fade once prices plateau—as they may in coming months, and even sooner if winter proves no colder than usual.

一旦价格趋于稳定，能源对通胀的贡献将开始减弱，未来几个月可能会这样，如果冬天不比往常更冷的话，这种情况可能会出现的更早。

Recent analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs, a bank, suggests that the effect of energy costs on America’s year-on-year inflation rate stood at 2.15 percentage points in September

高盛银行的经济学家最近的分析表明，九月能源成本对美国同比通货膨胀率的影响为2.15个百分点，

and will likely rise to 2.5 percentage points by the end of this year—taking the headline rate to 5.8%, holding other components constant—before eventually turning slightly negative by the end of 2022.

到今年年底可能会上升到2.5个百分点，将整体通胀率提高到5.8%，其他组成部分保持不变，最终在2022年底变得略有负值。

What about the damage to growth?

那么对经济增长造成的损害呢？

The predominant factor, in the near term at least, is the effect on consumption and investment.

至少在短期内，最主要因素是对消费和投资的影响。

Over short time horizons, households and firms cannot easily cut energy use in response to rising costs, leaving less to spend on other goods and services.

短期内，家庭和企业无法轻易地减少能源消耗以应对成本上升，相应地会减少在其他商品和服务上的支出。

This effect, according to work by Paul Edelstein of State Street, a bank, and Lutz Kilian of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is concentrated in the consumption of durable goods; a rise of 10% in the price of energy is associated with a 4.7% decline in spending on durables (and a particularly large drop in purchases of vehicles).

根据道富银行的保罗·埃德尔斯坦和达拉斯联邦储备银行的卢茨·基利安研究，这种影响集中在耐用品的消费上；能源价格上涨10%会导致消费品指数下降4.7%（汽车购买量降幅尤其大）。

Yet the researchers also note that consumption tends to fall by more in response to rising fuel costs than you might expect given the share of energy in budgets.

然而，研究人员也注意到，考虑到能源在预算中的份额，由于燃料成本上涨，消费量的下降幅度往往比你预期的要多。

That seems to be because energy shocks tend to depress sentiment.

这似乎是因为能源冲击往往会抑制情绪。