2022年经济学人 疫情后疯狂印钞发放的美国(2)（在线收听）

Another dampener may be the nature of the economic recovery.

另一个阻碍因素可能是经济复苏的性质。

In a paper last year Martin Beraja and Christian Wolf of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology showed that recoveries from recessions where falls in spending are concentrated on goods tend to be stronger than those with cuts concentrated on services.

麻省理工学院的马丁·贝拉贾（Martin Beraja）和克里斯蒂安·沃尔夫（Christian Wolf）在去年的一篇论文中指出，低迷的商品消费恢复势头比削减后的服务业恢复势头要强劲。

Pent-up demand for, say, smartphones can be released in a flood.

比如，被压抑的智能手机需求可能会像洪水一样被释放出来。

By contrast, demand for beach holidays returns more slowly: vacationers can only be in one place at a time.

相比之下，海滩度假的需求恢复得更慢：度假者在同一时间只能在一个地方度假。

This suggests that as the pandemic fades, the flow of savings into services such as travel and entertainment may be sluggish.

这表明，随着疫情消退，流向旅游和娱乐等服务业的储蓄可能会放缓。

A final concern is high inflation.

最后一个令人担忧的问题是高通胀。

That eats into both wealth and incomes.

这会侵蚀财富和收入。

Adjusted for rising prices, wage growth in America has turned sharply negative over the past half-year.

经物价上涨调整后，美国的工资增长在过去半年里急剧转为负值。

Similarly, the real value of savings looks a bit less impressive given the reduction in purchasing power.

同样，考虑到购买力的下降，储蓄的实际价值看起来不那么令人印象深刻。

The story does not end there, though.

然而，故事并没有到此为止。

Surveys by the Fed's New York branch indicate that stimulus recipients saved about one-third of the cash and used another third to pay down debts.

美联储纽约分行的调查显示，接受刺激计划的人将大约三分之一的现金存起来，另外三分之一用来偿还债务。

That helps explain why households' balance-sheets are healthier today than before the pandemic, regardless of their level of income.

这就解释了为什么不管收入水平如何，如今的家庭资产负债表都比疫情前更健康。

They thus have scope to borrow and spend more.

因此，他们有更多的借贷和支出空间。

This may already be happening.

这可能已经在发生了。

Consumer borrowing soared in November by $40bn, the most on record, as credit-card usage soared.

随着信用卡使用量的飙升，11月份消费者借款猛增400亿美元，创历史新高。

Some observers saw that as a sign that households were strapped for cash.

一些观察人士认为，这是家庭现金拮据的迹象。

Alex Lin of Bank of America disagrees.

美国银行的亚历克斯·林不同意这一观点。

"An increase in credit-card spending can be a function of greater re-engagement in the economy," he says.

他说：“信用卡消费的增加可能是更多地重新参与经济活动的结果。”

"Americans like to use their credit cards to rack up points for travel or restaurants, and that is not necessarily a sign of danger."

“美国人喜欢用他们的信用卡累积旅行或餐馆积分，这不一定是危险的迹象。”

The damage from inflation may also prove tolerable, especially if the Fed's tightening, plus supply-chain improvements, brings prices back under control.

通胀带来的损害也可能被证明是可以忍受的，特别是如果美联储的紧缩政策，加上供应链的改善，使价格回到可控范围内。

Wage growth has been stronger for those on lower incomes, the group most vulnerable to a reduction in real spending power.

低收入人群的工资增长更为强劲，这是最容易受到实际购买力下降影响的群体。

In November annual nominal wage growth for the bottom quartile of earners reached 5.1%, versus 2.7% for the top quartile, according to the Atlanta Fed.

亚特兰大联邦储备银行的数据显示，11月份，收入最低四分之一人群的名义工资年增长率达到5.1%，而收入最高四分之一人群的名义工资年增长率为2.7%。

As a whole, Americans saved about 6.9% of their incomes in November, less than the 7.4% average in the five years before the pandemic.

整体而言，11月美国人将收入的6.9%用于储蓄，低于疫情爆发前五年7.4%的平均水平。

Yet this is exactly what should be seen if some people are dipping into their excess savings.

然而，如果一些人动用自己的过剩储蓄，这正是应该看到的情况。

It is also a key reason why most forecasters think the economy will grow by about 4% this year, a robust pace in the face of headwinds.

这也是多数预测人士认为今年经济将增长4%左右的关键原因，在逆风的情况下，这是一个强劲的步伐。

And that barely grapples with the changes that the extra cash enabled for many recipients.

而这几乎无法应对额外现金给许多受助人带来的变化。

In another hip-hop track, Reneé the Entertainer sings of a woman who splurged on a buttock-augmentation procedure: "She spent the stimmy/on the booty/in Miami."

在另一首嘻哈歌曲中，艺人蕾妮演唱了一位在隆臀手术上挥霍无度的女人：“她在迈阿密花了刺激支票用于臀部。

Reneé, whose real name is Mariah Pizarro, in fact put her money to what is arguably a more productive use.

蕾妮的真名是玛丽亚·皮萨罗，实际上，她把钱用的恰到好处。

"I used them to get a more reliable vehicle," she says.

“我用它们来买一辆更可靠的车，”她说。

Although Ms Pizarro dreams of a music career, the car has for now facilitated a less glamorous occupation.

尽管皮萨罗女士梦想着从事音乐事业，但汽车目前推动了不那么光鲜的职业的发展。

It lets her drive to work at an Amazon warehouse.

她可以开车去亚马逊的一个仓库上班。