2022年经济学人 一场太过冒险的赌博（2）（在线收听）

In theory, excluding Russian oil and gas from sanctions should enable the trading houses to continue their day-to-day operations.

理论上讲，将俄罗斯石油和天然气排除在制裁之外，应该能让这些贸易公司继续日常的运营。

In practice, it does not because energy trading is as much about the flow of money as of molecules.

而在实践中，并不是这样的，因为能源交易既是分子的流动，也是金钱的流动。

Cargoes are financed by banks.

货款由银行提供。

They require letters of credit guaranteeing payment.

银行要求提供信用证书作为付款保证。

They involve frequent messaging between banks working for the buyers and sellers.

这其中涉及为买卖双方服务的银行之间频繁的信息传递。

Until March 1st, when names were released of the seven Russian lenders potentially blocked from the SWIFT interbank-communications system, many energy-related transactions in Russia were halted, traders said, owing to the counterparty risk.

交易商表示，直到3月1日，7家可能被SWIFT银行间通信系统屏蔽的俄罗斯银行的名字公布，俄罗斯的许多能源相关交易都因交易对手风险而暂停。

Moreover, fears surfaced that as Russia's aggression on Ukraine escalates, sanctions will be strengthened.

此外，人们担心，随着俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略升级，制裁将会加强。

“The tit has to be reasonably in line with the tat,” says Jean-Francois Lambert, a commodities consultant.

“针锋需合理相对，”大宗商品咨询师让-弗朗索瓦·兰伯特如是说。

The problem is exacerbated by the length of time cargoes of oil and LNG spend at sea.

石油和液化天然气在海上停留的时间越长，问题就越严重。

By the time they reach port, sanctions on Russian energy may be in place.

当它们抵达港口时，对俄罗斯能源的制裁可能已经生效。

“The biggest grey area is that no one knows what comes next,” says Daniel Martin, who specialises in shipping rules at HFW, a law firm.

“最大的不确定是没有人知道接下来会发生什么，”在HFW律师事务所专门研究航运规则的丹尼尔·马丁说。

Logistical chaos compounds the uncertainty.

后勤的混乱加剧了这种不确定性。

Oil-tanker rates on the Black Sea adjacent to Russia and Ukraine have surged as fighting has intensified.

随着战事升级，与俄罗斯和乌克兰相邻的黑海的油轮运价飙升。

As well as business risks, the trading firms face reputational ones.

除了商业风险，贸易公司还面临着声誉风险。

This is exacerbated by long-standing links with firms and individuals at the heart of the regime.

与处于政权核心的公司及个人的长期联系加剧了这种情况。

In “The World for Sale”, a recent book, the authors argue that the merchants have probably been more engaged with Mr Putin's autocracy than anyone in the world of international business.

在最近出版的一本书《待售的世界》中，作者们认为，商人可能比国际商界的任何人都更多地参与到了普京的独裁统治中。

Despite a stand-off between Russia and the West, they made vast loans to Rosneft in exchange for oil-supply deals.

尽管俄罗斯与西方正进行对峙，他们还是向Rosneft提供了巨额贷款，以换取石油供应交易。

Two years after Russia seized Crimea in 2014, Glencore co-invested $11bn to buy part of the Russian government's stake in Rosneft (it has since sold almost all of it).

在俄罗斯于2014年占领克里米亚两年之后，Glencore联合投资110亿美元购买了俄罗斯政府在Rosneft的部分股份（后来该公司几乎将这些股份全部出售）。

After Trafigura and Vitol invested in Vostok, they received supply deals from Rosneft.

Trafigura和Vitol在投资了Vostok之后，获得了Rosneft的供应协议。

Mark Rossano, CEO of C6 Capital Holdings, a consultancy, believes that both the oligarchs and the traders were caught out by the economic reprisals that the war has unleashed.

咨询公司C6 Capital Holdings的首席执行官马克·罗萨诺认为，无论是政治寡头还是交易商，都在战争引发的经济报复中陷入困境。

They will survive.

他们会挺过去的。

Even with business in Russia in free fall, crisis breeds opportunity.

虽然在俄罗斯的商业处于自由落体式下跌之中，但危机也孕育着机遇。

As Western countries such as America release strategic reserves of crude to stop the price of oil soaring, they are queuing up for cargoes.

当美国等西方国家为阻止油价飙升而释放战略原油储备时，他们正在排队购买石油。

If Western sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil are lifted so that it can offset a potential loss of Russian crude, they have the contacts to move the stuff.

如果西方解除对伊朗石油的出售制裁，以抵消可能损失的俄罗斯原油，他们也有社会关系来转移这些东西。

But these are dangerous times.

但现在是危险时期。

The West's reaction to Mr Putin's war is visceral.

西方对普京的战争的反应是发自肺腑的。

It is one thing to be considered a non-aligned merchant providing the world with what it needs.

被当作是为世界提供所需的不结盟商人是一回事。

It is another to be seen as a mercenary.

被视为雇佣兵则是另外一回事。