2022年经济学人 科技——饥肠辘辘的独角兽（1）（在线收听）

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Technology -- Hungry, hungry unicorns

科技——饥肠辘辘的独角兽

After a fat year, tech startups are bracing for lean times

在经历了繁荣的一年后，科技初创公司准备迎来不景气时期

After a stunning run during the pandemic, which put a premium on all things digital, tech stocks have hit a rough patch.

在疫情期间，科技股涨势惊人，所有数字化产品都获得了红利，如今它们处境艰难。

The Nasdaq, a technology-heavy index, has fallen by 15% from its peak in November, weighed down by a new outbreak of Covid-19 in China and the Russia-Ukraine war, which are gumming up supply chains, and inflation, which erodes the value of future cashflows, making risky growth stocks less attractive to investors.

以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数相比去年11月的峰值下跌了15%，原因是中国爆发的新一轮新冠疫情、堵塞供应链的俄乌战争以及侵蚀未来现金流的价值的通货膨胀，降低了高风险成长型股票对投资者的吸引力。

On April 20th the market value of Netflix crashed by a third, or $54bn, after the video-streaming titan reported the first quarterly net loss of subscribers in more than a decade.

4月20日，在视频流媒体巨头Netflix公布了十多年来的首次季度订阅净亏损后，该公司市值暴跌三分之一，即540亿美元。

The bloodletting in public markets has left many wondering about private technology startups.

公开市场上的大出血让许多人对私营科技初创公司产生了怀疑。

Like their listed peers, they have enjoyed a Covid-fuelled bonanza.

与它们已经上市的同行一样，它们也拥有着新冠助推产生的财运。

Thanks in part to new types of investor, such as hedge funds and corporations, ploughing more cash into the sector, last year was a bumper one for venture-capital (VC) deals.

部分原因是对冲基金和公司等新型投资者向该行业投入了更多资金，去年是风险投资交易的丰收之年。

According to CB Insights, a research firm, global tech startups raised $628bn in 2021, more than double the previous year's tally.

根据研究公司CB Insights的数据，全球科技初创企业在2021年融资6280亿美元，是前一年的两倍多。

In the same period the number of deals jumped by a third, to more than 34,000.

同期交易数量激增三分之一，超过3.4万笔。

Fully 528 private firms became "unicorns", valued at $1bn or more.

总共有528家私营企业成为“独角兽企业”，估值达到或超过10亿美元。

Are these rich valuations now also about to take a tumble?

这些高估值企业如今也将经历暴跌吗？

The short answer: almost certainly.

简短的答案是：几乎可以肯定。

Dealmaking has already slowed.

交易已经放缓。

The number of transactions sealed between January and March fell by 5% compared with the previous quarter.

与上一季度相比，1月到3月之间达成的交易数量下降了5%。

The amount invested dropped by 19%, the biggest quarterly decline since 2012.

投资额下降了19%，这是2012年以来的最大季度降幅。

Some of the factors behind the slowdown are those unsettling the public markets, supply-chain snags and inflation chief among them.

经济放缓背后的部分原因是令公开市场不安的因素，其中最主要的是供应链障碍和通货膨胀。

Another cause is the public markets themselves.

另一个原因是公开市场本身。

An index of stocks that have floated via an initial public offering (IPO) within the past two years, compiled by Renaissance Capital, a hedge fund, is down by around a third in the past 12 months.

由对冲基金Renaissance Capital编制的一项股票指数显示，在过去的12个月里，通过首次公开募股上市的股票下跌了约三分之一。

This has discouraged many startups from going public.

这打消了许多初创公司上市的念头。

In the last three months of 2021, 296 firms listed.

在2021年的最后三个月，有296家公司上市。

In the first three months of 2022, just 164 did -- mostly in Asia.

而在2022年的前三个月，只有164个国家上市——大部分是在亚洲。

Worried that they will be unable to monetise their stakes soon, venture capitalists have tightened their purse strings.

由于担心无法很快将所持股份变现，风险投资家们捂紧了自己的钱包。

Private valuations are beginning to be affected.

私营企业的估值开始受到影响。

Last month Instacart, a grocery-delivery firm, took the unusual step of announcing its own devaluation, from $39bn in March last year to $24bn, even without an accompanying "down round" of fund raising at a lower price.

上个月，食品杂货配送公司Instacart采取了一项不同寻常的举措，自己宣布其资产贬值，从去年3月的390亿美元降至240亿美元，甚至没有伴随着一轮以更低价格进行的“下行”融资。

Valuations are falling in secondary markets, too.

二级市场的估值也在下降。

Phil Haslett, co-founder of EquityZen, which helps tech employees sell their pre-IPO stock options, says that the prices of some of those stocks have fallen by 30-40% since the second half of last year.

EquityZen是一家帮助科技公司员工出售上市前股票期权的企业，其联合创始人菲尔·哈斯莱特表示，自去年下半年以来，其中一些股票的价格已经下跌了30%到40%。