2022年经济学人 科技——饥肠辘辘的独角兽（2）（在线收听）

Falling valuations in turn make it harder to raise capital.

不断下跌的估值反过来又加大了融资的难度。

New projects may be put on hold and new hires may have to stop.

新项目可能会被搁置，新员工的招聘可能不得不停止。

Some companies could go out of business altogether.

一些公司可能会直接倒闭。

On April 5th Fast, a maker of checkout software for online merchants, announced that it was shutting down because of fundraising problems.

4月5日，为在线商家提供结账软件的Fast公司宣布由于资金筹措问题将停止服务。

Many investors predict that more startups will go bust or see their valuations decline in the coming months.

许多投资者预计，未来几个月将有更多初创公司破产或估值下跌。

To see which startups are most at risk, The Economist looked at the annual revenue growth and valuation-to-sales ratios for 500-odd unicorns around the world, for which PitchBook, a data firm, had information.

为了了解哪些初创公司面临的风险最大，《经济学人》研究了全球500多家独角兽企业的年营收增长和估值与销售额的比值，数据公司PitchBook掌握着这些数据。

For the whole lot, the median revenue growth was 63% and the value-to-revenue ratio was 22.

整体而言，营收增长中值为63%，估值与营收比值为22。

Three sectors looked particularly vulnerable.

有三个行业看起来尤其脆弱。

One is hardware companies, such as Juul, an e-cigarette firm, and Royole, a Chinese maker of smart devices.

一类是硬件公司，比如电子烟公司Juul和中国智能设备制造商柔宇。

This group has a median revenue growth of 32% and valuations 25 times their annual sales.

这类企业的营收增长中值为32%，估值与年销售额的比值为25。

Another category is fintech firms, including Britain's Checkout.com and America's Plaid.

另一类是金融科技公司，包括英国的Checkout.com和美国的Plaid。

Such firms' median valuation is about 33 times their sales, the highest among the 11 broad sectors we examined, but their median sales growth is only middling, at 70% per year.

这类公司的估值中值与销售额的的比值约为33，是我们调查的11个行业中最高的，但它们的销售额增长中值仅为中等水平，每年增长70%。

Business-software firms, such as Miro and Talkdesk, are also looking shaky.

商业软件企业，如Miro和Talkdesk，看起来也不太稳定。

These firms have a median valuation of 28 times their sales and revenue growth of 33%.

这些公司的估值中值与其销售额的比值为28，营收增长为33%。

Some startups will be insulated from the shock.

一些初创企业将不会受到冲击。

Software firms, for example, tend to boast large gross margins, often around 70% for smaller companies.

例如，软件公司往往拥有很高的毛利率，小公司的毛利率通常在70%左右。

This can provide a buffer against a downturn.

这可以在经济低迷期起到缓冲作用。

Thanks to last year's bumper fundraising, many startups of all sorts have healthy balance-sheets and may not need to raise capital for several years.

多亏了去年丰厚的融资，许多各类初创公司都拥有健康的资产负债表，可能在几年内都不需要融资。

“I have so much money I don't know what to do with it,” the boss of one told The Economist earlier this year after a multibillion-dollar round.

今年早些时候，在完成一轮数十亿美元的融资之后，一家公司的老板告诉《经济学人》：“我现在有太多钱了，都不知道怎么花。”

And superstar companies, such as Stripe, a payments unicorn valued last year at $95bn, are so adored by venture capitalists that they will probably be able to raise money even in harsh environments.

而超级明星公司，比如去年估值950亿美元支付独角兽公司Stripe，深受风险投资家的青睐，以至于它们很可能在恶劣的环境下也能筹集到资金。

Indeed, VC firms insist that falling valuations across the industry do not affect their returns, precisely because these ultimately come from a small number of big hits, not a big number of small ones.

事实上，风投公司坚持认为，整个行业的估值下降不会影响他们的回报，正是因为回报最终来自少数大公司，而不是多数小公司。

Perhaps.

或许是这样。

Some investors are nonetheless rethinking their strategies.

尽管如此，一些投资者仍在重新考虑自己的策略。

Younger firms, which are further from listing and so are less likely to be hurt by the turbulence in public markets, are in favour.

较年轻的公司，由于离上市更远，因此受到公开市场动荡影响的可能性较小，则更受青睐。

In the past quarter deal size has continued to grow for striplings, while the median deal for late-stage firms has shrunk from $50m last year to $40m.

上个季度，新兴公司的交易规模继续增长，而处于发展后期阶段的公司的交易量中值已从去年的5000万美元降至4000万美元。

Startups, too, are adapting.

初创企业也在调整适应。

Mr Haslett reports a surge of chief financial officers asking for help in arranging the sale of employees' shares in secondary markets.

哈斯莱特表示，请求帮助安排在二级市场出售员工股票的首席财务官人数激增。

These shares may fetch less than if their owners had waited for their employer to go public.

这些股票的价格可能低于其所有者等到其雇主上市时的价格。

But that may be a long wait.

但这可能是一个漫长的等待。