2022年经济学人 油价为何又在飙升?（在线收听）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Oil Prices: Crude calculations

油价：粗略计算

Why oil is spiking again?

油价为何又在飙升？

In the 1970s Arab states used the “oil weapon” of embargoes to punish Western governments for supporting Israel.

20世纪70年代，阿拉伯国家利用禁运这一“石油武器”来惩罚支持以色列的西方政府。

On May 30th the heads of the 27 eu member governments agreed to turn the weapon on themselves, as part of a fresh round of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

5月30日，欧盟27个成员国的首脑同意将该武器对准自己，这是继俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后对俄罗斯新一轮制裁的一部分。

As well as cutting off Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, from the swift cross-border payment system, the package will also ban purchases of Russian crude oil and refined products, such as diesel, by the end of the year.

除了将俄罗斯最大的银行俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行(Sberbank)排除在快速跨境支付系统之外，该制裁计划还将在今年年底前禁止购买俄罗斯原油和柴油等成品油。

There would, the eu said, be a “temporary” exemption for oil delivered through pipelines.

欧盟表示，通过管道输送的石油可以“暂时”豁免。

The price of a barrel of Brent crude leapt above $120 on the news, its highest level since March.

消息传出后，布伦特(Brent)原油价格跃升至每桶120美元以上，为3月份以来的最高水平。

In principle, the decision is highly significant.

原则上，这个决定意义重大。

As well as demonstrating unity, and the bloc’s willingness to bear economic pain to punish Russia, it cuts one of the few remaining trade ties with the Kremlin.

它不仅表明了欧盟的团结，以及该组织愿意承受经济上的痛苦来惩罚俄罗斯，它还切断了与俄罗斯仅剩的贸易联系之一。

It also imperils one of Russia’s most lucrative sources of foreign-currency earnings.

它还危及俄罗斯最赚钱的外汇收入来源之一。

The eu is Russia’s biggest market for crude, buying about half the country’s oil exports.

欧盟是俄罗斯最大的原油市场，购买量占据该国大约一半的石油出口量。

There are reasons, however, to be sceptical that the move will deprive the Kremlin of much foreign currency.

然而，我们有理由怀疑此举是否会让俄罗斯失去大量外汇。

For a start, the ban applies only to seaborne oil, transported via tankers.

首先，这项禁令只适用于通过油轮运输的海运石油。

That is the price of unity: excluding oil delivered by pipelines was necessary to find a compromise with Hungary, which is both more sympathetic to Russia than most eu countries and critically dependent on the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline (a name meaning “friendship” in Russian).

这就是团结的代价：将通过管道运输的石油排除在外是为了与匈牙利达成和解，匈牙利比大多数欧盟国家更同情俄罗斯，而且严重依赖苏联时期的“德鲁日巴”管道(在俄语中是“友谊”的意思)。

Hungary imports about 65% of its crude from Russia.

匈牙利大约65%的原油从俄罗斯进口。

Seaborne oil makes up a similar share of Europe’s imports from Russia.

海运石油在欧洲从俄罗斯进口的石油中所占的份额也差不多。

But the ban is likely to have a limited impact on the oil market.

但该禁令对石油市场的影响可能有限。

Many tankers are already subject to “self-sanctioning” in parts of the West.

在西方部分地区，许多油轮已经受到“自我制裁”。

Dockworkers have refused to unload ships carrying Russian cargoes and oil majors have been worried about the hit to their reputations from accepting shipments.

码头工人拒绝为装载俄罗斯货物的船只卸货，石油巨头担心接受货物会损害他们的声誉。

Western financiers are stepping back from writing insurance contracts.

西方金融家正逐步退出保险合同。

Insurers based in Russia’s allies could partly replace them, but have shallower pockets.

以俄罗斯的盟友为基地的保险公司可以在一定程度上取代它们，但却资金不足。

A big question is whether Russian seaborne crude, once placed under sanctions, will go unsold.

一个大问题是，一旦受到制裁，俄罗斯海运原油是否会卖不出去。

So far Russia’s oil exports have risen even as the country has come under sanctions.

到目前为止，尽管俄罗斯受到制裁，但该国的石油出口仍在增长。

According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, much of the increase has gone to India, which has not issued sanctions of its own.

据摩根大通银行的分析师称，大部分增加的出口量流向了印度，而印度还没有发布自己的制裁措施。

Another question is whether Europe does eventually ban piped Russian oil, which is harder to redirect to other countries.

另一个问题是，欧洲最终是否会禁止通过管道输送俄罗斯石油，因为这些石油更难转向至其他国家。

Poland and Germany have said they will cease importing via the Druzhba pipeline.

波兰和德国表示，他们将停止通过德鲁日巴管道进口石油。

Yet it is hard to imagine Hungary’s dropping its opposition to a wider ban.

然而很难想象匈牙利会接受更广泛的禁令。

Viktor Orban, the country’s populist prime minister, has demonstrated his willingness to block eu decisions before.

该国的民粹主义总理维克托·欧尔班此前就曾表现出阻止欧盟决定的意愿。

Thanks to a hefty discount on Russian crude--the Urals benchmark is trading significantly below Brent--mol, a Hungarian oil group, reports “skyrocketing” margins.

由于俄罗斯原油价格的大幅折扣——乌拉尔基准原油的价格远低于布伦特原油——匈牙利石油集团mol报告称，其利润率“暴涨”。

Partial though the embargo may be, such is the tightness of the oil market that prices still surged.

尽管禁运可能是部分原因，但由于石油市场的紧张，油价仍在飙升。

Demand for fuel is strong as the pandemic subsides and consumers start driving and flying again, and as governments try to shield voters from the impact of higher energy costs.

随着疫情消退，消费者再次开始开车和坐飞机，政府也试图保护选民免受能源成本上升的影响，目前燃料需求强劲。

China’s easing of coronavirus restrictions in recent days has also added to the thirst for oil.

中国最近几天放松了对新冠病毒的限制，也增加了对石油的需求。

The prices of industrial metals, including iron ore and copper, have rallied, too.

包括铁矿石和铜在内的工业金属价格也出现上涨。

Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (opec) and its allies, which include Russia, have shown little sign of increasing production just yet.

与此同时，石油输出国组织(opec)及其包括俄罗斯在内的盟友尚未有增加产量的迹象。

The group was due to meet on June 2nd, as we went to press, and was not expected to depart from its plan to gradually increase supply to levels seen before the pandemic

该组织原定于6月2日召开会议，预计不会偏离其逐步增加石油供应至疫情前水平的计划

(although prices dipped on reports that it was mulling a plan to exclude Russia from its production targets, allowing Saudi Arabia and others to pump more to make up for any lost output).

(虽然有报道称，该组织正在考虑一项计划，将俄罗斯排除在生产目标之外，允许沙特阿拉伯和其他国家增加产量，以弥补任何可能的减产)。

Tight supply and robust demand together translate into higher prices for consumers at the pump.

供应紧张和需求旺盛共同导致油价上涨。

To make matters worse, a shortage of refinery capacity in America has raised prices for petrol and diesel even further than the cost of crude.

更糟糕的是，美国炼油厂产能的短缺导致汽油和柴油价格的上涨幅度超过原油价格。

The surging dollar adds to costs for Europe and emerging markets, notes Francisco Blanch of Bank of America.

美国银行的弗朗西斯科·布兰奇指出，美元的飙升增加了欧洲和新兴市场的成本。

None of this is welcome news in an already inflationary environment.

在已经出现通胀的环境下，这些都不是好消息。

According to figures published on May 31st inflation in the euro area rose to 8.1% in the year to May, higher than economists had expected.

根据5月31日公布的数据，截至5月，欧元区的通货膨胀率上升至8.1%，高于经济学家的预期。

The Arab embargoes of the 1970s caused short-term pain for the West, but also spurred a drive for fuel efficiency that ultimately reduced its reliance on oil.

20世纪70年代的阿拉伯禁运给西方带来了短期的痛苦，但也刺激了提高燃料效率的行动，最终降低了对石油的依赖。

European governments today may find themselves hoping that the short-term pain for consumers similarly gives way to the long-term gain of energy security.

今天，欧洲各国政府可能会发现，他们希望消费者的短期痛苦也同样会为能源安全的长期收益让位。