2022年经济学人 在艰难时期管理美国企业（2）（在线收听）

American bosses are again demonstrating that they are less squeamish about lay-offs than their European counterparts.

美国老板再一次证明，他们对裁员不像欧洲老板那么紧张。

In a memo sent to employees this month Elon Musk revealed plans to trim salaried headcount at Tesla, his electric-car company, by 10%.

在本月发给员工的一份备忘录中，埃隆·马斯克透露，他的电动汽车公司特斯拉计划裁员10%。

Digital darlings, many of which had boomed during the pandemic, collectively sacked nearly 17,000 workers in May alone.

数字宠儿公司中有许多在疫情期间蓬勃发展，但它们仅在5月份就总共解雇了近1.7万名员工。

After tempting workers with increased pay and perks, in the latest quarterly earnings calls more American CEOs have been talking up automation and labour efficiencies.

通过加薪和福利来吸引员工之后，在最近的季度财报电话会议上，更多的美国首席执行官一直在谈论自动化和劳动效率。

In the current climate, though, hard-headed (and hard-hearted) cost control won’t be enough to maintain profitability.

然而，在当前环境下，头脑冷静（且铁石心肠）的成本控制不足以维持盈利能力。

The remaining cost inflation must be pushed through to customers.

剩余的成本膨胀必须转嫁到消费者身上。

Many businesses are about to learn the difficulty of raising prices without crimping demand.

许多企业即将认识到，在不抑制需求的情况下提高价格有多么困难。

The companies that wield this superpower often share a few attributes: weak competition, customers’ inability to delay or avoid the purchase, or inflation-linked revenue streams.

掌握这一超能力的公司通常有几个共同的特征：竞争力弱，消费者无法推迟或避免购买其产品，或者其收入流与通胀挂钩。

A strong brand also helps.

一个强大的品牌也会有所帮助。

Starbucks boasted on an earnings call in May that, despite caffeinated price rises for its beverages, it has struggled to keep up with “relentless demand”.

星巴克在5月份的一次财报电话会议上夸口说，尽管其饮料的咖啡因价格上涨，但它一直难以满足“无休止的需求”。

Recent data hint at softer consumer sentiment, however.

然而，最近的数据显示消费者信心疲软。

This makes it riskier for firms to roll out frequent price increases.

这导致公司频繁提价会冒更大风险。

Amber lights are blinking, from McDonald’s, which has speculated about “increased value sensitivity” among burger-munchers, to Verizon, which detected customer “slowness” in the most recent quarter.

从麦当劳到威瑞森，都正闪烁着黄灯。麦当劳已经推测到吃汉堡的消费者“对价值的敏感度有所提高”，而威瑞森在最近一个季度察觉到了消费“放缓”。

The ability to push through price increases as customers tighten their belts requires careful management.

要想具备在消费者勒紧裤腰带的情况下推动价格上涨的能力，需要谨慎管理。

In contrast to the last high-inflation era, managers can use real-time algorithmic price setting, constantly experimenting and adjusting as consumers respond.

与上一个高通胀时代不同，管理者可以使用实时算法设定价格，根据消费者的反应不断进行试验和调整。

Nonetheless, all firms will still have to take a longer-term view on how long high prices will last and on the limits of what their customers will tolerate.

尽管如此，所有公司仍必须从更长远的角度考虑高价格持续的时间，以及他们的消费者可以容忍的极限。

That is finger-in-the-wind stuff.

这样能帮他们判断风向。

Even if they keep revenues and costs under control, CEOs are discovering what their predecessors knew all too well: inflation plays havoc with the balance-sheet.

即使他们能够控制收入和成本，首席执行官们也发现了他们的前辈们再了解不过的事情：通货膨胀会严重破坏资产负债表。

That requires even tighter control of working capital (the value of inventories and what is owed by customers minus what is owed to suppliers).

这就需要更严格地控制营运资金(即存货价值加上客户欠款再减去欠供应商的金额后的资金)。

Many firms have misjudged demand for their products.

许多公司误判了消费者对其产品的需求量。

Walmart lost almost a fifth of its market value, or around $80bn, in mid-May, after it reported a cashflow squeeze caused by an excess build-up of inventories, which rose by a third year on year.

沃尔玛曾报告称其存货过剩，同比增加了三分之一，导致现金流紧张，随后该公司在5月中旬损失了近五分之一的市值，约合800亿美元。

On June 7th its smaller retailing rival, Target, issued a warning that its operating margin will fall from 5.3% last quarter to 2% in the current one, as it discounts goods to clear its excess inventories.

6月7日，其规模较小的零售竞争对手塔吉特发出警告称，由于打折商品以清空过剩库存，其运营利润率将从上个季度的5.3%降至本季度的2%。

Payment cycles—ie, when a firm pays suppliers and is paid by customers—become more important, too, as the purchasing power of cash delivered tomorrow withers in inflation’s heat.

支付周期--即公司向供应商付款并收取客户账款的时间--也变得更加重要，因为第二天交付的现金的购买力会在通胀的热浪中萎缩。

All this makes a business’s performance more difficult to assess.

这一切都导致企业的业绩更难评估。

For example, calculations of return on capital look more impressive with an inflated numerator (present returns) and the denominator (capital invested in the past) in old dollars.

例如，在分子(现在的回报)涨高，而分母(过去投资的资本)按旧美元来计价的情况下，资本回报率的计算看起来会更令人印象深刻。

Between 1979 and 1986, during the last bout of high inflation, American firms were required by law to present income statements that were adjusted for rising prices.

1979年至1986年，在上一轮高通胀期间，法律要求美国公司提交根据物价上涨进行调整的损益表。

This edict is unlikely to be revived.

这一法令不太可能恢复。

But even as bosses boast of higher nominal revenue growth, investment and compensation decisions should account for such artificial tailwinds.

但是，即使老板们吹嘘名义收入增长率更高，投资和薪酬决策也应该对这种人为的顺风因素负责。

Just ask Mr Buffett.

问问巴菲特就知道了。

In his letter to shareholders for 1980 he reminded them that profits must rise in proportion to increases in the price level without an increase in capital employed, lest the firm starts “chewing up” investors’ capital.

在1980年致股东的信中，他提醒他们，利润必须与价格水平的上升成比例增长，而不能增加所用资本，以免公司开始“蚕食”投资者的资本。

His missive to investors in 2023 may need to carry the same message.

他在2023年致投资者的信中可能需要传达同样的信息。