英国卫报：60年来的气候变化警告：那些被忽视的迹象(5)（在线收听）

In 1968 he had written an essay called How to Wreck the Environment, imagining a future in which we had resolved threats of nuclear war but instead weaponised the weather.

1968年，他写了一篇名为《如何破坏环境》的文章，想象在未来，我们已经解决了核战争的威胁，但却将天气武器化。

“In the decade since,” Rich writes, “MacDonald had grown alarmed to see humankind accelerate its pursuit of this particular weapon of mass destruction, not maliciously, but unwittingly.”

“在此后的十年里，里奇写道，麦克唐纳看到人类加速追求这种特殊的大规模杀伤性武器，不是恶意的，而是不知不觉的，这让他越来越感到震惊。”

More importantly, MacDonald was also a “Jason” – a member of a secret group of elite scientists who met regularly to give the government advice, outside of the public eye.

更重要的是，麦克唐纳还是一个 "杰森"--一个由精英科学家组成的秘密小组的成员，他们定期开会，在公众视野之外向政府提供建议。

The Jason group had met to discuss carbon dioxide and climate change in the summers of 1977 and 1978, and MacDonald had appeared on US TV to argue that the earth was warming.

1977年和1978年的夏天，杰森小组曾开会讨论二氧化碳和气候变化，麦克唐纳曾在美国电视上出现，论证地球正在变暖。

You might imagine there was some culture clash between Pomerance, a Friends of the Earth lobbyist, and MacDonald, a secret military scientist, but they made a powerful team.

你可以想象，地球之友的说客Pomerance和秘密军事科学家麦克唐纳之间会有一些文化冲突，但他们是一个强大的团队。

In an episode described in Losing Earth, they got a meeting with Frank Press, the president’s science advisor, who brought along the entire senior staff of the US Office of Science and Technology.

在《失去地球》一书中描述的一个情节中，他们得到了与总统科学顾问弗兰克-普雷斯的会面，后者带来了美国科技办公室的所有高级工作人员。

After MacDonald outlined his case, Press said he would ask the former head of the meteorology department at MIT, Jule Charney, to look into it.

在麦克唐纳概述了他的情况后，普雷斯说他将要求麻省理工学院气象系的前主任朱勒-查尼调查此事。

If Charney said a climate apocalypse was coming, the president would act.

如果查尼说气候启示录即将到来，总统就会采取行动。

“The scientists summoned by Jule Charney arrived with their wives, children, and weekend bags at a three-story mansion in Woods Hole, on the southwestern spur of Cape Cod,” Rich writes.

"被朱尔-查尼召集的科学家们带着他们的妻子、孩子和周末的行李来到科德角西南支线上伍兹霍尔的一座三层楼的豪宅，"里奇写道。

Charney’s brief was to assemble atmospheric scientists to check the Jasons’ report, and he invited two leading climate modellers to present the results of their more detailed, richer models:

查尼的任务是召集大气科学家来检查杰森的报告，他邀请了两位领先的气候建模师来介绍他们更详细、更丰富的模型的结果。

James Hansen at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at Columbia University in New York, and Syukuro Manabe of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab in Princeton.

纽约哥伦比亚大学戈达德空间研究所的詹姆斯-汉森，以及普林斯顿地球物理流体动力学实验室的Syukuro Manabe。

The scientists reviewed principles of atmospheric science and dialled in Hansen and Manabe.

科学家们回顾了大气科学的原则，并拨通了汉森和马纳比的电话。

The two models offered slightly different warnings about the future, and in the end, Charney’s group decided to split the difference.

这两个模型对未来提出了略微不同的警告，最后，查尼的小组决定将差异折中一下。

They felt able to say with confidence that the Earth would warm by about 3C in the next century, plus or minus 50% (that is, we would see warming between 1.5C or 4C).

他们认为可以有把握地说，在下个世纪，地球将变暖约3摄氏度，正负50%（也就是说，我们将看到升温幅度在1.5摄氏度或4摄氏度之间）。

In their report of November 1979, Science magazine declared: “Gloomsday predictions have no fault.”

在1979年11月的报告中，《科学》杂志宣布。“阴霾日的预测没有错”。