2022年经济学人 印度信实工业的未来（2）（在线收听）

Interpreting these rumours is tricky.

解读这些谣言很费事。

Perhaps they reflect prudent succession planning.

或许它们是继任规划谨慎的一种表现。

Mr Ambani is 65, not old for an Indian tycoon, but it is time to start teeing up the next generation of leaders.

安巴尼现年65岁，作为一位印度大亨来说还不算老，但现在是时候开始培养下一代领导人了。

Even if his children were to take over the running of some of the group’s major subsidiaries, they would ideally have years more experience at management and building teams before even being considered as candidates qualified to take over Reliance itself.

即使他的子女将接手集团一些主要子公司的运营，理想情况下，他们在管理和组建团队方面也应该再多有几年经验，才能被视为有资格接手信实的候选人。

And Reliance’s history shows the drawbacks of leaving it too late.

而信实的历史表明，让位太晚是有弊端的。

Soon after Dhirubhai died in 2002 a brutal succession battle broke out between Mr Ambani and his brother, Anil, which ended with the company being split into two, and Anil’s side of the business faded into obscurity.

2002年迪鲁拜去世后不久，安巴尼和他的兄弟阿尼尔之间爆发了一场残酷的继承战，最终公司被一分为二，阿尼尔所在的企业也逐渐淡出大众视野。

Whenever he departs, there is little debate that Mr Ambani’s exit would constitute a huge loss for the company.

无论安巴尼何时离职，他的离开都会给公司带来巨大损失，这一点毫无争议。

Reliance has a loyal cadre of managers but he is regarded as the driving force behind every facet of Reliance’s business from strategy to finance.

信实拥有一批忠诚的管理人员，但他被视为信实从战略到财务各方面业务背后的驱动力。

He is seen as having the ability to deal with the complicated judicial, political and economic currents of India better than anyone.

他被认为比任何人都有能力去应对印度复杂的司法、政治和经济形势。

Whether in telecoms, energy or retail, Reliance has navigated and benefited from innumerable rules and rulings that make hamstrung competitors seethe with envy.

无论是在电信、能源还是零售行业，信实都曾在让陷入困境的竞争对手羡慕不已的无数规则和裁决中，找到正确的行进方向并从中受益。

Ensuring that this continues will be a tall order for the next generation at Reliance.

对于信实的下一代来说，确保这种情况持续下去将是一项艰巨的任务。

Perhaps most important, Mr Ambani has continued a pattern that his father began: betting the firm on enormous and risky projects within India.

也许最重要的是，安巴尼延续了他父亲开创的模式：将公司押注于印度境内的大型风险项目上。

Some of these wagers have not worked well: Reliance’s attempt to develop gas fields in the Bay of Bengal has been underwhelming, for example.

其中一些押注并不奏效：例如，信实在孟加拉湾开发天然气田的尝试结果不尽人意。

But some have been both jaw-droppingly daring and successful.

但有些既大胆到令人瞠目结舌又获得了成功。

Reliance’s telecoms and digital operation required huge upfront investments—its assets are now $49bn, according to Bloomberg data, up from close to zero a decade ago.

信实的电信和数字公司需要巨额前期投资--彭博社的数据显示，目前其资产规模为490亿美元，而10年前几乎为零。

And by bringing cheap communications to the masses it has helped transform Indian society.

通过向大众提供收费低廉的通讯服务，它帮助改变了印度社会。

This may go some way to explaining the respect now shown to Reliance even by its critics.

这可能在一定程度上解释了，为什么现在即使是批评信实的人也对它表示尊重。

Unlike classic crony capitalism where the extraction of rents is paramount, Reliance’s huge level of reinvestment mean its return on capital is modest: below 10% every year for the past decade.

与获取租金占首要地位的传统裙带资本主义不同，信实的巨额再投资意味着其资本回报率不高：过去10年，每年都低于10%。

Already the next big bet is being lined up.

下一个大赌注已经准备好了。

Profits from refining are providing tens of billions of dollars for investments in renewable energy infrastructure in a country with a shortage of power generation and an over-dependence on fossil fuels that will need to be remedied soon.

印度存在发电短缺和过度依赖化石燃料的问题，这些都需要尽快解决，炼油利润为这样一个国家的可再生能源基础设施投资提供了数百亿美元。

One theory is that the annual meeting has been delayed while a break-up of the company is debated.

一种说法是，由于公司分拆问题仍在讨论之中，年度会议被推迟了。

The firm is certainly in good nick.

可以肯定的是这家公司状况良好。

After India went into lockdown in 2020 it brought minority investors, including Google, into its digital arm.

印度在2020年实施封锁后，信实就让包括谷歌在内的少数股东入股了其数字部门。

The cash was used to slash debt.

这些资金被用于削减债务。

Refining profits are at high levels, notwithstanding the recent imposition of a windfall tax by the government.

尽管政府最近征收了暴利税，但炼油利润仍处于较高水平。

Jio enjoys a steady subscriber base and rising tariffs.

Jio享有稳定的用户基础和不断上涨的资费。

Reliance’s retailing arm is profitable and expanding.

信实的零售部门正在盈利，且正在扩张。

All this suggests Reliance, or its constituent parts, could plod on without Mr Ambani at the helm.

所有这些都表明，在没有安巴尼掌舵的情况下，信实或其组成部分仍可以艰难前行。

But would the group still have the appetite to undertake some of the boldest bets in global business?

但该集团还会有兴趣在全球商业领域进行一些最大胆的押注吗？