金融世界 第十三讲 货币的价格（在线收听）

金融世界 第十三讲

自从二十世纪八十年代初开始，澳大利亚与其他许多国家一样实行了货币浮动汇率制，英文是 floating exchange rates。也就是说，澳大利亚元的价格要随着市场的变化而不断变动。

在这一讲中，我们就来看一看货币的价格也就是汇率到底是由什么来决定的。

我们知道，汇率是两种或两种以上货币之间的比价。最初，澳大利亚同世界上的许多国家一样，实行的是固定汇率制。澳洲广播电台金融节目主持人巴里克拉克对此作了解释。他在谈话中提到这样一些词汇：

1 fixed exchange rates 固定汇率

2 Gold Standard 金本位制，以黄金为本位货币的货币制度，1819年英国首先采用，1929年后被大多数国家放弃

3 Bretton Woods system 布雷顿森林货币体系，1944年7月在美国新罕布什尔州布雷顿森林举行了联合国家货币金融会议，确定一盎司黄金等于三十五美元，其他货币与美元汇率在上下百分之一的幅度内浮动

4 crawling peg system 蠕动钉住汇率制，布雷顿森林汇率制度瓦解后的一种汇率制度，只对汇率作少量调整，避免剧烈变动

5 International Monetary Fund 国际货币基金组织

下面我们分段听一遍澳广金融节目主持人巴里克拉克的谈话和中文翻译：

Precisely because the exchange rate is such an exceptionally important price, many find it surprising, and even alarming, that it is allowed to fluctuate from day to day, from hour to hour, and even from minute to minute, according to the vagaries of market forces.

恰恰由于货币兑换率是这样一种特别重要的价格，允许它根据市场反复无常的力量每日每时甚至每分钟都上下浮动，使很多人感到惊讶甚至担忧。

Throughout most of the 19th century, and for part of the 20th century, the world economy operated on a quite rigorous system of fixed exchange rates, known as the 'Gold Standard'. Though the Gold Standard was abandoned during the Great Depression, a modified regime of fixed exchange rates was reinstated with the reconstruction of the international financial mechanism after the Second World War. This was known as the 'Bretton Woods system', presided over by the International Monetary Fund.

在整个十九世纪和二十世纪部分时期，世界经济是基于一种严格的固定汇率制度来运作的。这种制度称为“金本位”制。尽管大萧条期间金本位制被抛弃，二次大战后重建国际金融秩序时又恢复了一种较为温和的固定汇率制，称作“布雷顿森林制”，由国际货币基金组织掌管。

Even as late as the early 1980s, though the original Bretton Woods mechanism had by then essentially collapsed internationally, the Australian authorities were still attempting to manage the exchange rate under a so-called 'crawling peg' system, with the object of stabilising the price of the dollar.

甚至到了一九八十年代初，尽管那时原来的布雷顿森林制在国际上已经基本垮台，澳大利亚政府仍试图根据所谓的“蠕动钉住”制来管理货币的兑换率，以稳定澳元的价格。

But in December 1983, the then Federal Treasurer, Paul Keating announced the floating of the dollar.

但是在1983年的12月，当时的国库部长基廷宣布澳元自由浮动。

现在我们再完整听一遍巴里克拉克的谈话。（略）

那么，货币的价格不再由政府的中央银行决定之后，是由什么来确定呢？是由坐在交易所里面的货币经纪人来决定吗？美国斯坦福大学经济系教授安妮克鲁格说：

The major part of the story has to do with the market determining the exchange rate, but the market in itself is reacting to a number of underlying factors and those include how much is exported, how much is imported, what relative interest rates are, how much demand and supply, if you like, there is for the Australian or the US dollar relative to other currencies.

So it's a market determined rate and in that sense, what's happening in the trading rooms is that the traders are trying to figure out where the market is going. And for most purposes I think the evidence is that they do not have a great deal of influence in anything other than a little bit on the day to day side.