科学美国人60秒 新冠病毒死亡率及统计数据和新疫苗（在线收听）

COVID Death Rates Explained, Dismal Booster Stats and New Vaccines

新冠病毒死亡率及统计数据和新疫苗

Tanya Lewis: Hi, and welcome to COVID, Quickly, a Scientific American podcast series.

Josh Fischman: This is your fast-track update on the COVID pandemic. We bring you up to speed on the science behind the most urgent questions about the virus and the disease. We demystify the research and help you understand what it really means.

坦尼娅·刘易斯：嗨，欢迎收看科维德，快播，美国科学播客系列节目。

乔希·费奇曼：这是你对新冠病毒大流行的快速更新。我们将向您介绍有关病毒和疾病的最紧迫问题背后的科学知识。我们揭开了研究的神秘面纱，并帮助您理解它的真正含义。

Lewis: I’m Tanya Lewis.

Fischman: I’m Josh Fischman.

刘易斯：我是坦尼娅·刘易斯。

费奇曼：我是乔希·费奇曼。

Lewis: And we’re Scientific American’s senior health editors. Today, we’ll explain how to interpret COVID deaths among vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

Fischman: And we’ll discuss why so few people are getting booster shots.

Lewis: Plus, the latest news on new vaccines.

刘易斯：我们是《科学美国人》的高级健康编辑。今天，我们将解释如何解释接种疫苗和未接种疫苗人群中的新冠病毒死亡。

费奇曼：我们将讨论为什么很少有人注射助推器。

刘易斯：还有，关于新疫苗的最新消息。

Fischman: In the last few months, a fair number of people who died of COVID were vaccinated. Yet studies showed vaccination protects people, especially from severe illness. This seems like a big contradiction. Are the studies wrong?

费奇曼：在过去几个月里，相当多死于新冠病毒的人接种了疫苗。然而，研究表明，接种疫苗可以保护人们，尤其是防止重病。这似乎是一个很大的矛盾。研究有错吗？

Lewis: It’s a common misconception that, because vaccinated people can get and occasionally die from COVID, the vaccines must not work. But you need to understand the context.

刘易斯：这是一个常见的误解，因为接种疫苗的人可能会感染新冠病毒，有时会死于新冠病毒，所以疫苗一定不能起作用。但你需要理解上下文。

Our graphics editor Amanda Monta?ez and I published a story on this. We used CDC data from a subset of U.S. jurisdictions that have tracked vaccination and booster status and COVID deaths for people 12 and older. In March, among people vaccinated with just the primary series–that is, two shots of Pfizer or Moderna or one shot of J&J—there were 143 deaths. And there were 383 deaths among unvaccinated people.

我们的图形编辑阿曼达·蒙塔涅斯和我发表了一篇关于这个的报道。我们使用了美国疾病预防控制中心（CDC）的一部分辖区的数据，这些辖区跟踪了12岁及以上人群的疫苗接种和助推器状态以及新冠病毒死亡情况。3月份，在只接种初级系列疫苗的人群中，有143人死亡，即两次注射辉瑞（Pfizer）或摩德纳（Moderna）或一次注射强生（J&J）。未接种疫苗的人群中有383人死亡。

Fischman: That still seems like a lot of deaths among vaccinated people. What am I missing here?

Lewis: These figures don’t take into account the incidence rate—in other words, the number of deaths divided by the total number of people who were vaccinated or unvaccinated. If you do that, you’ll see that vaccinated people die at a far lower rate from COVID than unvaccinated people. In fact, the unvaccinated had 8 times the death rate of people vaccinated with the primary series only, and 17 times the rate of people who were vaccinated and received at least one booster shot.

费奇曼：接种疫苗的人中似乎仍然有很多人死亡。我错过了什么？

刘易斯：这些数字没有考虑发病率，换句话说，死亡人数除以接种或未接种疫苗的总人数。如果你这样做，你会发现接种疫苗的人死于新冠病毒的比率远远低于未接种疫苗的人。事实上，未接种疫苗的人的死亡率是仅接种初级系列疫苗的人的8倍，是接种疫苗并接受至少一次强化注射的人的17倍。

Fischman: That seems more in line with what we’ve been told about the vaccines’ effectiveness. But isn’t it true that they are less effective among older people?

费奇曼：这似乎更符合我们所知道的疫苗的有效性。但是，他们在老年人中的效果不是很好吗？

Lewis: Yes. We know that older Americans are more likely to get severely ill or die from COVID in general. And while the vaccines are very protective, their efficacy wanes over time. That’s why it’s so important to get booster shots.

刘易斯：是的。我们知道，一般来说，美国老年人更容易患重病或死于新冠病毒。虽然疫苗具有很强的保护作用，但其效力会随着时间的推移而减弱。这就是为什么注射助推器如此重要的原因。

As time goes on, you’re likely to see more COVID deaths among vaccinated people, simply because a greater number of unvaccinated people will die from the virus, and there are more vaccinated people in general. But if you’re vaccinated, your risk of dying from COVID is still FAR lower.

随着时间的推移，你可能会看到接种疫苗的人中有更多的新冠病毒死亡，这仅仅是因为有更多的未接种疫苗的人会死于该病毒，而且一般来说接种疫苗的人会更多。但如果你接种了疫苗，你死于新冠病毒的风险仍然要低得多。

Lewis: Booster shots are even more important now, as new Omicron variants such as BA.4 and BA.5 roll across the country. Yet not a lot of people are getting the extra shots. Josh, what do the booster numbers tell us?

刘易斯：助推器现在更为重要，因为新的Omicron变体，如BA。4和BA。5在全国各地滚动。然而，并不是很多人都有额外的机会。Josh助推器的数字告诉我们什么？

Fischman: The numbers don’t look very good, honestly. And that’s especially true among people 65 and older, who have been the most vulnerable to the disease. This group was very eager when it came to the original round of vaccines over a year ago. 91 percent of them got vaccinated.

费奇曼：老实说，这些数字看起来不太好。65岁及以上的人尤其如此，他们是最容易感染这种疾病的人。一年多前，这一群体在第一轮疫苗研发时非常渴望。91%的人接种了疫苗。

But things changed with boosters. For the first booster shot, just 68 percent of the senior citizen group got them. And second boosters have reached only 30 percent of these people.

Lewis: That’s distressing since this is such a high-risk group. About three-quarters of the deaths in the U.S. have been among senior citizens, right?

但随着助推器的出现，情况发生了变化。在第一次助推器注射中，只有68%的老年人得到了它们。第二个助推器只惠及了30%的人。

刘易斯：这太令人沮丧了，因为这是一个高风险群体。美国大约四分之三的死亡是老年人，对吗？

Fischman: Yes, and it's frustrating because boosters really reduce their risk.  Antibodies against the virus drop to lower levels four months after the primary shots, and protection wanes with them. But a booster turns things around. A study of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines among older people showed that a booster shot reduced the risk of hospitalization by more than 60 percent. The booster lowered the chances of death by between 75 and 79 percent.

费奇曼：是的，这很令人沮丧，因为助推器确实降低了他们的风险。初次注射后四个月，病毒抗体下降到较低水平，保护作用随之减弱。但助推器可以扭转局面。一项针对老年人的辉瑞（Pfizer）和摩德纳（Moderna）疫苗的研究表明，强化注射可将住院风险降低60%以上。助推器将死亡几率降低了75%至79%。

Lewis: So that begs the question: why don’t older people get these protective extra shots?

Fischman: There seem to be a number of reasons. One of the big ones is that officials are not making boosters easily available, in contrast to what they did with the original vaccines.

刘易斯：这就引出了一个问题：为什么老年人不打这些额外的保护针呢？

费奇曼：似乎有很多原因。其中一个大问题是，与他们对原始疫苗所做的相比，官员们并没有轻易提供助推器。

Remember the government pushed out the first vaccines to nursing homes. Large-scale vaccination clinics popped up all over the place, in sports stadiums, schools, and other places, supported by FEMA and other federal agencies. Many of these clinics were near public transit, for ease of access. And there was a huge public messaging blitz.

还记得政府向养老院推出的第一批疫苗吗。在FEMA和其他联邦机构的支持下，在体育场馆、学校和其他地方出现了大规模的疫苗接种诊所。这些诊所中有许多都靠近公共交通，以方便出入。还有一场大规模的公共信息闪电战。

That hasn’t happened with boosters, either for the third or fourth shot. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational  Institute, told me the CDC really didn’t promote boosters for months. The agency merely said people had an option to get them. Topol says the CDC needed to be emphatic, and state people should get shots because they are essential protection. He’s very critical of this lapse, and says the messaging was badly botched.

无论是第三次还是第四次，助推器都没有出现这种情况。斯克里普斯研究转化研究所所长埃里克·托波尔（EricTopol）告诉我，疾控中心几个月来都没有推广助推器。该机构只是表示，人们可以选择购买它们。白杨说，疾控中心需要强调，州人民应该注射疫苗，因为它们是必不可少的保护措施。他对这一失误持批评态度，并表示消息传递的过程非常糟糕。

Lewis: That doesn’t sound good. Were there other problems?

Fischman: There were. Nursing homes have been using the same services they use to deliver flu shots, and those are spottier. There are no big clinics, no big ad campaigns. People have to sign up for booster shots at pharmacies, and the online registration can be very confusing. So awareness is lower, and access is harder.

刘易斯：听起来不太好。还有其他问题吗？

费奇曼：有。养老院一直在使用与流感疫苗注射相同的服务，而这些服务更为精准。没有大型诊所，没有大型广告活动。人们必须在药店注册助推器注射，在线注册可能会非常混乱。因此，意识较低，访问更难。

Lewis: Are there ways to get past these obstacles?

Fischman: There are places that have done well with boosters, and they show what works. Minnesota, for instance, has the highest first booster percentage in the country, at 83 percent. Dakota County in the state has done exceptionally well, reports Kaiser Health News. It hired an agency that brought boosters to nursing homes. The county also ran clinics at lunch and in the evenings. It used money provided by Congress to purchase a mobile vaccine van, which traveled to different neighborhoods. Health workers walked through those neighborhoods, answering questions about the importance of boosters and building awareness.

刘易斯：有没有办法克服这些障碍？

费奇曼：有些地方的助推器做得很好，它们展示了什么是有效的。例如，明尼苏达州的首次助推器比例在全国最高，为83%。据《凯撒健康新闻》报道，该州的达科他县做得非常好。它聘请了一家机构为养老院提供助推器。该县还在午餐和晚上开设诊所。它利用国会提供的资金购买了一辆移动疫苗车，该车可以前往不同的社区。卫生工作者走遍了这些社区，回答了有关助推器重要性和提高认识的问题。

The county also used federal pandemic funds to give people fifty dollar vouchers for the shots, which helped cover costs for those who had to pay to travel to a clinic.

Now it's time for efforts like this on a national level, Topol says. Boosters need a big push, and he told me what the message should say, firmly and strongly: “This shot could save your life.”

该县还利用联邦流行病基金为人们发放了50美元的注射券，这有助于支付那些不得不前往诊所的人的费用。

Topol说，现在是时候在国家层面上做出这样的努力了。助推器需要大力推动，他坚定而有力地告诉我信息应该说什么：“这一枪可以挽救你的生命。”

Lewis: There’s more vaccine news, too. The Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee voted nearly unanimously last week to authorize another COVID vaccine, made by the company Novavax.

刘易斯：还有更多疫苗新闻。食品和药物管理局疫苗咨询委员会上周几乎一致通过投票，批准Novax公司生产的另一种新的新冠疫苗。

Fischman: The new vaccine, which uses a more conventional preparation based on proteins from the virus instead of genetic material, joins Moderna’s and Pfizer’s mRNA vaccines and Johnson & Johnson’s adenovirus vaccine. The FDA is now looking closely at the reliability of the Novavax manufacturing process.  If the agency is satisfied and follows the committee’s recommendation, the shot could be available in the U.S. in the coming weeks.

费奇曼：这种新疫苗使用了一种基于病毒蛋白质而非遗传物质的更为传统的制剂，加入了摩德纳和辉瑞的mRNA疫苗以及强生公司的腺病毒疫苗。FDA目前正在密切关注Novavax生产工艺的可靠性。如果该机构感到满意并遵循委员会的建议，那么在未来几周内，该镜头可能会在美国上市。

Lewis: In addition, Moderna announced that it has a booster dose that targets the Omicron variant as well the original version. That booster produced a better antibody response than the original version alone. They did not test how well it actually protected against disease, though.

刘易斯：此外，摩德纳公司宣布，它有一种针对Omicron变体以及原始版本的增强剂量。这种助推器产生的抗体反应比原来的版本更好。不过，他们并没有测试它对疾病的实际保护程度。

Fischman: The company said it will give this data to the FDA, and hopes the Omicron booster will be ready in early fall if authorized. The agency also plans to have a meeting at the end of June to decide which variants should be included in coming boosters. Their hope is to keep up with this ever-evolving virus.

费奇曼：该公司表示，将向FDA提供这些数据，并希望奥米克罗助推器如果获得授权，将在初秋准备就绪。该机构还计划在6月底召开一次会议，以决定未来的助推器应包括哪些变体。他们的希望是跟上这种不断进化的病毒。

Lewis: Now you’re up to speed. Thanks for joining us. Our show is edited by Jeff DelViscio and Tulika Bose.

刘易斯：现在你掌握了速度。谢谢你加入我们。我们的节目由Jeff DelViscio和Tulika Bose编辑。

Fischman: Come back in two weeks for the next episode of COVID, Quickly! And check out SciAm.com for updated and in-depth COVID news.

费奇曼：两周后再来看下一集《新冠肺炎》，快点！看看SciAm。com获取最新和深入的新冠病毒新闻。