2022年经济学人 央行官员与其批评者之间的冲突（2）（在线收听）

Mr Bernanke dispenses with many of the criticisms of low rates with which Mr Chancellor is taken; what his account lacks in vivacity it makes up for with analytical clarity.

伯南克没有采用人们对低利率连带着对钱塞勒的许多批评；他的叙述缺乏活力，但他清晰的分析弥补了这一不足。

For example, he gives short shrift to the idea that loose monetary policy prolongs the lives of “zombie companies” whose capital would otherwise be reallocated to more productive endeavours.

例如，如果没有宽松货币政策延长“僵尸企业”的寿命，这些企业的资本将被重新配置到更有生产力的领域，这样的观点，他只是一笔带过。

If interest rates are low because desired saving exceeds available lucrative investment opportunities, then of course capital will flow to less profitable ventures instead.

如果利率低是因为相比可获得的有利可图的投资机会，人们想存的钱更多，那么资本当然会流向利润较低的企业。

Low rates do not tie up capital, but make things easier for entrepreneurs who wish to borrow.

低利率不会束缚资本，但会让想借钱的企业家更容易借到钱。

Such an argument might not have the lustre of references to intellectuals such as David Hume or Frédéric Bastiat, but it is coherent.

相比提到大卫·休谟或弗雷德里克·巴斯夏等知识分子的论点，这样的论点可能缺乏光彩，但它很有条理。

By contrast, “The Price of Time” reads like a jumbled collection of every criticism to have been levied at low interest rates.

相比之下，《时间的代价》读起来就像是以低利率征收的一堆杂乱无章的批评。

Mr Chancellor argues that low rates benefit financial interests, then laments that they damage bank profits.

钱塞勒辩称，低利率有利于金融利益，但他又哀叹低利率损害了银行利润。

He says low rates hurt retirees by making annuities unaffordable, but also that they benefit the elderly at the expense of the young by pushing up property prices.

他说，低利率害得退休人员负担不起年金，但也推高了房地产价格，以牺牲年轻人为代价，使老年人受益。

It is not always clear whether he thinks low rates lead to too little investment, too much investment or investment in the wrong sorts of things.

对于低利率是会导致投资过少，还是投资过多，又或者是投资领域错误，他的看法有时会模糊不清。

Messrs Chancellor and Bernanke do agree that low rates increase financial risk-taking, for reasons that economists do not fully understand.

钱塞勒和伯南克确实同意低利率会增加金融风险，其原因经济学家还不完全明白。

In theory, low rates should make credit cheaper uniformly; in reality, the riskiest borrowers benefit the most.

理论上，低利率应该会让信贷整体变得更便宜；而实际上，承担最高风险的借款人受益最大。

But whereas Mr Chancellor sees this as sufficient reason to raise interest rates even when the economy is weak, Mr Bernanke sees it as an issue that is too little understood to form the basis of a monetary policy.

但是，尽管钱塞勒认为这是在经济疲软时也要加息的充分理由，但伯南克认为这是一个太少人能够理解的问题，不足以构成货币政策的基础。

Should the Fed ever raise rates to try to contain financial excesses?

美联储是否应该通过加息来遏制过度金融化？

“In principle, yes,” says Mr Bernanke.

伯南克表示：“原则上应该这么做。”

“But in practice, very cautiously and not very often.”

“但在实践中，要非常谨慎，而且不能很频繁地加息。”

Hence there is an amusing contrast between the books’ assessments of loose monetary policy after the global financial crisis.

因此，这两本书对全球金融危机后宽松货币政策的评估形成了有趣的对比。

Mr Chancellor blames it for almost any ill he can identify in the American and world economies.

钱塞勒将他能在美国和世界经济中发现的几乎所有问题都归咎于此。

Mr Bernanke regrets not having stimulated more, given how much the economy subsequently undershot the Fed’s employment and inflation targets.

而考虑到后来的经济状况远远没有达到美联储的就业和通胀目标，伯南克后悔没有采取更多刺激措施。

Again, it is Mr Bernanke’s account that is more convincing—for the simple reason that critics of loose money in the 2010s repeatedly predicted severe instability that never came.

同样，伯南克的描述更有说服力--原因很简单，那就是在20世纪10年代，批评宽松货币政策的人再三预测到了从未出现过的严重不稳定经济状况。

It took the pandemic to cause markets to crash in the spring of 2020.

2020年春季，疫情导致市场崩溃。

Central banks’ recent blunder has not been allowing excessive financial vulnerabilities to build.

各国央行最近的失误并不是让它们容易受到过度金融化的影响。

Their misstep has been a failure to control inflation.

而是未能控制通胀。

On this point, readers are likely to find Mr Bernanke’s book unsatisfactory, probably because it was written before the extent of the problem became clear.

在这一点上，读者可能会发现伯南克的书并不令人满意，这可能是因为这本书是在问题的严重程度变得明朗之前写的。

Readers may scoff when he describes a “burst” of inflation troubling the economy, or labels Jerome Powell, today’s Fed chair who has looked hapless as inflation has risen, a “consummate 21st-century central banker”.

当他形容通胀“爆发”困扰美国经济时，或者称在通胀上升之际看起来很倒霉的现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔是“完美的21世纪央行行长”时，读者可能会嗤之以鼻。

Though the lengthy discussion of alternative forms of stimulus may prove relevant again later in the decade, it will seem academic while central banks are desperately raising interest rates to get price growth under control.

尽管在近十年后，有关其它刺激措施形式的冗长讨论可能会再次证明具有现实意义，但在各国央行拼命加息以控制物价增长的情况下，这似乎是纸上谈兵。

Still, at least today’s central bankers now recognise the importance of inflation targets.

不过，至少今天的央行官员认识到了通胀目标的重要性。

Mr Chancellor would overturn their primacy in pursuit of amorphous goals.

钱塞勒将推翻他们优先追求乱七八糟目标的观念。

His worldview has much in common with the liquidationists of the 1930s who thought the Depression, in which America’s unemployment rate reached nearly 25%, was a necessary purging of the economy.

他的世界观与20世纪30年代的清算主义者有许多相似之处，后者认为，大萧条是对经济的必要清洗，当时美国失业率达到了近25%。

(At one point he argues the 1930s weren’t so bad after all because productivity growth was high.)

(他一度辩称，20世纪30年代的情况并不是那么糟糕，因为生产率增长很快。)

By all means enjoy his colourful challenge to conventional wisdom.

请尽情享受他对传统智慧花样百出的挑战。

But when the time comes to appoint a central banker, choose someone like Mr Bernanke.

但到了要任命央行行长的时候，可要选择伯南克这样的人。