2022年经济学人 何时该相信直觉？（2）（在线收听）

To take one example, when your inbox brims with new emails at the start of a new day, there is absolutely no way to read them all carefully.

举个例子，如果你的收件箱在新的一天开始时塞满了新邮件，你绝不可能全部认真看完。

Intuition is what helps you decide which ones to answer and which to delete or leave unopened.

直觉会帮助你决定回复哪些、删除哪些或对哪些置之不理。

Emails that are part of existing threads: open.

属于现有线程的电子邮件：打开。

Messages from people directly above and below you: open.

直属上下级的消息：打开。

Reminders from the chief information officer that cyber-security really, really matters: delete.

首席信息官说网络安全真的、真的很重要的提醒消息：删除。

Instinct is also at work on those occasions when people have completely zoned out.

当人们完全思想游离的时候，本能也在起作用。

They might be working on something else during a Zoom call, or playing chess on their phones, or simply admiring the ceiling pattern.

他们可能在打Zoom电话时正在做其他事情，或是正在手机上下棋，或者只是在欣赏天花板的图案。

Suddenly they are aware of a silence, and realise that they have been asked something or are expected to make a contribution.

突然，他们感觉到了一阵沉默，并意识到有人向自己问了些什么，或者有人期待自己做点贡献。

This is the office equivalent of coming face to face with a lion.

这种职场上的情形就相当于与一头狮子面对面。

Those who are fit to survive will say something plausible like “I’d like to understand how we are measuring success,” prompting murmurs of agreement from everyone else who hasn’t been paying attention but senses this might be a good answer.

那些能够挺过去的人会说一些貌似有理的话，比如“我想知道我们衡量成功的标准”，引起其他所有人低声附和，这些人其实也一直在走神，只是感觉这个回答可能还不错罢了。

Fast thinking is not just about self-preservation.

快思考不仅仅能保护自己。

It can help the entire organisation.

对整个组织也有助益。

The value of many managerial decisions lies in the simple fact that they have been made at all.

许多管理决策有价值的原因很简单，就是因为这些决策已经做好了。

Yet as data gushes from every pore of the modern organisation, the temptation to ask for one more bit of analysis has become much harder to resist.

然而，随着数据从现代组织的每一个孔隙中涌出，要求更多分析的诱惑已变得更加难以抗拒。

A well-established psychological phenomenon known as “verbal overshadowing” captures the danger of overthinking things: people are more likely to misidentify someone in a line-up if they have spent time writing a description of their faces.

“语词遮蔽效应”这种广为人知的心理现象充分体现了过度思考有多危险：如果人们花时间写下对某人的脸部描述，就更有可能认错人。

Managers often suffer from analytical overshadowing, mulling a simple problem until it turns into a complex one.

经理们经常会受到分析遮蔽效应的影响，他们会把一个简单的问题琢磨成一个复杂的问题。

When to use intuition in the workplace rests on its own form of pattern recognition.

在职场上何时该依照直觉行事取决于它自己的模式识别形式。

Does the decision-maker have real expertise in this area?

判断一下：决策者在这一领域是否具备真正的专业知识？

Is this a domain in which emotion matters more than reasoning?

在这一领域中，情感是否比依据更重要？

Above all, is it worth delaying the decision?

最重要的是，推迟做这一决定是否值得？

Slow thinking is needed to get the big calls right.

要想正确处理重大问题，需要慢思考。

But fast thinking is the way to stop deliberation turning to dither.

但快思考可以阻止深思熟虑变成犹豫不决。