2022年经济学人通货膨胀：更快、更高、更长(2)（打印版）

The second dimension is also becoming clearer.

第二个维度也愈发清晰。

In September the median expectation of Fed officials was that rates would peak at 4.6% next year.

9月份，美联储官员的预期中值是利率将在明年达到4.6%的峰值。

Bond pricing now has the peak pegged at 5%, reflecting the fact that a variety of inflation indicators have stayed stubbornly high.

债券定价现在将峰值固定在5%，反映出各种通胀指标一直居高不下。

Mr Powell suggested that the Fed’s thinking is in line with the bond market.

鲍威尔暗示，美联储的想法与债券市场一致。

Even so, there is a logic for slightly smaller increases from here on.

即便如此，从现在开始小幅加息也是有道理的。

Just as an aeroplane slows before landing, so, ideally, does a central bank before settling on its peak rate.

就像飞机在着陆前减速一样，理想情况下，央行在确定最高利率之前也会放缓加息。

The biggest uncertainty surrounds the final dimension.

最大的不确定性在于最后一个维度。

How long will the Fed need to keep rates at a restrictive level?

美联储需要将利率维持在限制性水平多长时间？

It estimates that the long-term neutral level—that which is neither inflationary nor stimulative—is about 2.5%.

据美联储估计，既不会导致通胀，也不会刺激经济的长期中性利率水平，约为2.5%。

By this yardstick, nominal rates are already in restrictive territory.

按照这个标准，名义利率已经处于限制范围内。

But in real terms, with inflation still running at more than 8% annually, policy remains loose.

但实际上，在年通胀率仍在8%以上的情况下，政策还是有些宽松。

So the question is when the economy will react to them.

所以问题在于经济何时会对它们做出反应。

Some developments have been predictable.

有些发展是可以预见的。

Mortgage rates have more than doubled over the past year, exceeding 7%.

抵押贷款利率在过去一年上涨了一倍多，涨至7%以上。

That has led to a sharp fall in house purchases.

这导致房屋购买量骤降。

But the resilience of the labour market has been harder to predict.

但劳动力市场的韧性更难预测。

There are still nearly twice as many job openings as there are unemployed people, placing upward pressure on wages and, in turn, inflation.

职位空缺数量仍然是失业人数的近两倍，这给工资带来了上行压力，进而也带来了通胀。

At several points during the conference, Mr Powell emphasised that the Fed would keep rates high for as long as is required.

在发布会期间，鲍威尔曾多次强调，只要有必要，美联储将一直维持高利率。

Markets have priced in a pivot before the end of 2023.

市场已经消化了在2023年底前转向的预期。

The view is the Fed will trim rates in the second half of the year.

有人认为，美联储将在今年下半年降息。

But it has raised them faster and higher than investors had expected.

但美联储提高利率的速度和幅度都超出了投资者的预期。

There is a good chance it will also keep them high for longer than investors currently expect.

同样，美联储维持高利率的时间也很有可能超出投资者目前的预期。