2023年经济学人 欧洲暖冬带来的好运（2）（在线收听）

Yet it is still too soon to announce an end to the energy crisis.

然而，现在宣布能源危机结束还为时过早。

For a start, prices remain well above normal.

首先，能源价格仍远高于正常水平。

Overall power prices are roughly twice what they were in mid-2021.

电价总体来说大约是2021年年中的两倍。

The same gas that costs around 75 Euro ($81) per megawatt-hour today sold for 10 Euro before covid-19.

疫情前每兆瓦时10欧元的电如今的价格约为75欧元（即81美元）每兆瓦时。

Further drops are unlikely.

价格进一步下跌的可能性不大。

Gas demand from industry will probably pick up; gas-fired power stations may start to replace coal-fired ones.

工业对天然气的需求可能会回升；燃气发电站可能将开始取代燃煤发电站。

And even with bursting storage facilities, Europe is still short of what the International Energy Agency, an official forecaster, reckons the continent will need for a bad winter next year.

官方预测机构国际能源署估计，欧洲大陆明年将迎来严冬，即便现在欧洲储气设施充满，仍无法满足要度过寒冬的能源需求。

Asian demand for gas is increasing, and will rise further still as China's economy returns to normality.

亚洲对天然气的需求正在增加，随着中国经济回归常态，这一需求还会进一步上升。

As Timera Energy, a consultancy, notes, the gas market is still operating on the edge of supply capacity, meaning sharp price movements remain possible.

正如咨询公司Timera Energy指出的那样，天然气市场的供应仍有可能出现短缺，这意味着其价格仍有可能会大幅波动。

Europe would do well to bank its luck.

欧洲最好将自己的运气寄托于此。

Leaders could use the chance to rethink the myriad support schemes they introduced over the summer, many of which are are costly, inefficient and untargeted.

领导人可以利用这个机会重新考虑他们在夏天推行的大量支持计划，其中许多计划成本高昂、效率低下，而且没有针对性。

They would be wise to focus money on the vulnerable, and to tie it to green investments.

明智的做法是将资金集中在弱势群体身上，并将其与绿色投资挂钩。

After all, it is weirdly hot weather that has given Europe its current reprieve.

毕竟，正是异常的高温天气给了欧洲目前的喘息之机。

The fight against climate change will only become more acute as the energy crisis fades.

随着能源危机的消退，应对气候变化的斗争只会变得更加尖锐。