VOA时事新闻2023 研究表明西南极冰盖融化不可避免（在线收听）

研究表明西南极冰盖融化不可避免

A new study says that no matter how much the world cuts back on carbon emissions, a large and important part of Antarctica is expected to disappear.

一项新的研究表明，无论世界减少多少碳排放，南极洲的一大片重要地区预计都将会消失。

Researchers used computer models to predict the future melting of protective ice around Antarctica's Amundsen Sea in western Antarctica.

研究人员使用计算机模型来预测未来南极洲西部阿蒙森海周围保护性冰的融化情况。

They said the "unavoidable" melting will take hundreds of years.

他们说，“不可避免的”融化将需要数百年的时间。

It will slowly add nearly 1.8 meters to sea levels.

这将会使海平面缓慢上升近1.8米。

And it will be enough to reshape where and how people live in the future.

这将足以重塑人们未来的生活地点和方式。

The study was published recently in Nature Climate Change.

这篇研究论文最近发表在《自然气候变化》杂志上。

It found that even if future warming was limited to just a few tenths of a degree more, it would have "limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet."

研究发现，即使未来气温上升幅度被限制在仅零点几度的范围内，这也“无法阻止可能会导致南极西部冰盖坍塌的海洋变暖现象的发生”。

Many scientists say the goal of just a few tenths of a degree of warming is unlikely to be met.

许多科学家表示，将气温上升幅度控制在零点几度的目标不太可能实现。

"Our main question here was: How much control do we still have over ice shelf melting? How much melting can still be prevented by reducing emissions?" said study lead writer Kaitlin Naughten.

该研究论文的主要作者凯特琳·诺顿说：“我们的主要问题是：我们对冰架融化还有多大的控制力？通过减少排放还能防止多少冰架融化？”

She is an expert on oceans at the British Antarctic Survey.

她是英国南极调查局的海洋专家。

She said their research suggests that Earth is set on the path to a quick increase in the rate of ocean warming and ice shelf melting over the rest of the century.

她说，他们的研究表明，在本世纪余下的时间里，地球将走上海洋变暖和冰架融化速度迅速加快的道路。

While past studies have talked about how serious the situation is, Naughten was the first to use computer modeling to study how warm water from below will melt the ice.

虽然过去的研究已经谈论了情况的严重性，但诺顿是第一个使用计算机建模来研究来自地下的温水将如何融化冰的人。

The study looked at four different cases in how much carbon emissions the world produces.

这项研究考虑了全球碳排放量的四种不同情况。

In each case, ocean warming was just too much for this area of the ice to survive, the study found.

研究发现，在每一种情况下，海洋变暖的幅度都太大，以致这片冰区无法幸存。

Naughten looked at melting, floating areas of ice that hold back glaciers.

诺顿研究了阻止冰川融化的浮冰区域。

Once these areas of ice melt, there is nothing to stop the glaciers behind them from flowing into the sea.

一旦这些地区的冰融化，就没有什么能阻止它们后面的冰川流入大海。

The study also looked at what would happen if future warming was limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius over mid-19th century levels: the international goal.

这项研究还研究了如果未来气温上升幅度被控制在比19世纪中期的水平高1.5摄氏度以下（国际目标）会发生什么。

They found the runaway melting process in this case as well.

在这种情况下，他们也发现了失控的融化过程。

The world has already warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times and much of this summer went past the 1.5 degrees mark.

自前工业化时代以来，全球气温已经上升了约1.2摄氏度，今年夏天大部分时间的气温上升幅度都超过了1.5摄氏度的限制值。

Naughten's study looked at the part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that is most at risk from melting from below, near the Amundsen Sea.

诺顿的研究着眼于西南极冰盖靠近阿蒙森海的部分，那里最有可能从下方融化。

It includes the very large Thwaites ice shelf that is melting so fast it is called "the Doomsday Glacier."

其中包括巨大的思韦茨冰架，它融化得非常快，被称为“世界末日冰川”。

That part of Antarctica "is doomed," said University of California Irvine ice scientist Eric Rignot.

加利福尼亚大学尔湾分校的冰学家埃里克·里格诺特说，南极洲的这一部分“注定要毁灭”。

He was not part of the study.

他没有参与该研究。

He added, "The damage has already been done."

他补充说，“损害已经造成了。”

Naughten does not like to use the word "doomed," because she said 100 years from now, the world might not just stop but drive back carbon levels in the air and climate change.

诺顿不喜欢用“注定”这个词，因为她说，100年后，世界可能不仅会停止，还会降低空气中的碳含量和减缓气候变化。

But she said what is happening now on the ground is a slow collapse that cannot be stopped, at least not in this century.

但她说，目前正在发生的情况是一场无法阻止的缓慢坍塌，至少在本世纪是这样的。