2023年经济学人 2023可能和2022差不多糟（2）（在线收听）

    Moreover, today’s valuations were reached during an unusual period: one in which central banks pumped endless liquidity into the market via quantitative easing (QE).

    此外，今天的估值是在一个不同寻常的时期实现的：在这个时期，各国央行通过量化宽松(QE)向市场注入了无尽的流动性。

    By buying government bonds with newly created money, the Fed and others depressed yields and nudged investors to seek returns in riskier assets, like stocks.

    通过用新创造的货币购买政府债券，美联储和其他机构压低了收益率，促使投资者在股票等风险较高的资产中寻求回报。

    Now these QE programmes are being kicked into reverse.

    现在，这些量化宽松计划正在被逆转。

    One consequence is that governments will rely much more on private investors to hold their debt.

    一个后果是，各国政府将更多地依赖私人投资者来持有其债务。

    In the fiscal year of 2022-23, America’s Treasury may need to borrow almost twice as much from investors as it did during each of the two years preceding the covid-19 pandemic, and four times the average in the five years before that.

    在2022-23财年，美国财政部可能需要从投资者那里借入的资金，几乎是新冠肺炎疫情暴发前两年每年水平的两倍，是之前五年平均水平的四倍。

    Even without central banks raising short-term interest rates, this glut could drive bond prices down and yields up.

    即使各国央行不提高短期利率，这种过剩也可能压低债券价格，推高收益率。

    Just as in 2022, stocks would therefore be left looking less attractive by comparison.

    与2022年一样，相比之下，股票看起来就不那么有吸引力了。

    The final reason for gloom is a divergence between economists and investors.

    悲观的最后一个原因是经济学家和投资者之间的分歧。

    Although wonks are betting on a recession, many punters still hope one can be avoided.

    尽管书呆子们押注于经济衰退，但许多投机者仍希望经济衰退能够避免。

    Markets expect the Fed’s benchmark rate to hit a peak of below 5% in the first half of this year, before declining.

    市场预计美联储的基准利率将在今年上半年达到低于5%的峰值，然后开始下降。

    The central bank’s governors disagree.

    央行行长们对此持不同意见。

    They project that the interest rate will end the year above 5%.

    他们预计今年年底利率将超过5%。

    Thus investors are betting either that inflation will fall to target more quickly than the Fed expects, or that the monetary guardians do not have the heart to inflict the pain it would take to get it down.

    因此，投资者要么押注通胀降至目标的速度将比美联储预期的更快，要么押注货币监管机构没有勇气承受降低通胀所需的痛苦。

    There is, of course, a chance they will be proved right.

    当然，他们有可能被证明是正确的。

    But markets spent much of 2022 underestimating the Fed’s hawkishness, only to be put in their place by Jerome Powell, the central bank’s governor, at meeting after meeting.

    但在2022年的大部分时间里，市场都低估了美联储的鹰派强硬手段，最终让美联储行长杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一次又一次的会议上提醒市场注意自己的位置。

    If the pattern repeats, 2023 will be another miserable year for investors.

    如果这种模式重演，2023年对投资者来说将又是悲惨的一年。