2023年经济学人 当前移民潮对世界经济的影响(2)（在线收听）

    Many governments are also trying to attract more people.

    许多政府也在努力吸引更多的人。

    Canada has a target to welcome 1.5m new residents in 2023-25.

    加拿大的目标是在2023-25年迎来150万新居民。

    Germany and India recently signed an agreement to allow more Indians to work and study in Germany.

    德国和印度最近签署了一项协议，让更多的印度人在德国工作和学习。

    Australia is increasing the time period some students can work for after graduating from two to four years.

    澳大利亚正在将一些学生毕业后可以留下工作的时间从两年增加到四年。

    Many countries have made it easy for Ukrainians to enter.

    许多国家已经为乌克兰人入境提供了便利。

    Even those countries hitherto hostile to migration, including Japan and South Korea, are now looking more favourably on outsiders as they seek to counteract the impact of ageing populations.

    即使是那些直到目前都一直对移民怀有敌意的国家，包括日本和韩国，现在也对外来者的看法更友好，因为他们力图抵消人口老龄化的影响。

    Economies that welcome lots of migrants tend to benefit in the long run.

    从长远来看，欢迎大量移民的经济体往往会受益。

    Just look at America.

    看看美国就知道了。

    Foreign folk bring new ideas with them.

    外国人会带来新的想法。

    In America immigrants are about 80% likelier than native-born folk to found a firm, according to a recent paper by Pierre Azoulay of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and colleagues.

    根据麻省理工学院的皮埃尔·阿祖雷及其同事最近的一篇论文，在美国，移民创办公司的可能性比本土人高出约80%。

    Research suggests that migrants help to build trading and investment links between their home country and the receiving one.

    研究表明，移民有助于在他们的母国和接收国之间建立贸易和投资联系。

    A slug of young workers also helps generate more tax revenue.

    一批年轻工作者也有助于创造更多的税收。

    Some economists hope that the wave of migration will have more immediate benefits.

    一些经济学家希望，移民潮将带来更直接的好处。

    “High immigration is helpful for the Fed as it tries to cool down the labour market and slow down inflation,” says Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management, an asset manager, expressing a common view.

    “在美联储试图给劳动力市场降温和减缓通胀之际，移民的大量涌入是有帮助的。”来自资产管理公司阿波罗全球管理的托尔斯滕·斯洛克表达了这一普遍观点。

    Such arguments may be a little too optimistic.

    这样的说法可能有点过于乐观了。

    Having more people does increase the supply of labour, which, all else being equal, reduces wage growth.

    人数增多确实增加了劳动力的供应，在其他条件不变的情况下，这会降低工资增长。

    But the effect is pretty small.

    但这种影响相当小。

    There is little sign that the countries receiving the most migrants have the loosest labour markets.

    几乎没有迹象表明，接收最多移民的国家拥有最宽松的劳动力市场。

    In Canada, for instance, pay is still rising by about 5% year on year.

    例如，在加拿大，工资仍同比上涨约5%。

    Migrants also lift demand for goods and services, which can raise inflation.

    移民还增加了对商品和服务的需求，这可能会推高通胀。

    In Britain new arrivals appear to be pushing up rents in London, which already had a constrained supply of housing.

    在英国，新来的人似乎推高了伦敦的租金，而伦敦的住房供应本来就很有限。

    A similar effect is apparent in Australia.

    类似的影响在澳大利亚也很明显。

    Estimates by Goldman Sachs, a bank, imply that Australia’s current annualised net migration rate of 500,000 people is raising rents by around 5%.

    据高盛银行估计，澳大利亚目前50万人的年化净移民率使房租上涨了约5%。

    Higher rents feed into a higher overall consumer-price index.

    租金上涨导致整体消费者物价指数上涨。

    Demand from migrants may also explain why, despite higher mortgage rates, house prices in many rich countries have not fallen by much.

    移民的需求可能也解释了为什么尽管抵押贷款利率较高，但许多富裕国家的房价并没有下降太多。

    Over the next year or so migration may come down a bit.

    在未来一年左右的时间里，移民人数可能会有所下降。

    The post-pandemic “catch-up” will end; rich-world labour markets are slowly loosening.

    疫情后的“追赶”将会结束，富裕国家的劳动力市场正在慢慢变宽松（劳动力供应大于需求）。

    In the very long term, a global slump in fertility rates means there may be a shortage of migrants.

    从非常长远的视角来看，全球生育率的下降意味着移民可能会短缺。

    Yet there is reason to believe that high levels of new arrivals will remain raised for some time.

    然而，有理由相信，高水平的新移民人数将在一段时间内保持上升。

    More welcoming government policy is one factor.

    更欢迎移民的政府政策是其中一个因素。

    And migration today begets migration tomorrow, as new arrivals bring over children and partners.

    而且今天的移民会带来明天的移民，因为新来的人会带来子女和伴侣。

    Before long the rich world’s anti-immigrant turn of the late 2010s will seem like an aberration.

    用不了多久，富裕世界在2010年代末转向反移民的态度将会看起来像是一种反常现象。