2023年经济学人 美联储加息的两难困境（在线收听）

美联储加息的两难困境

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Of great interest

    利率问题

    As inflation cools, the Federal Reserve faces a bigger dilemma.

    随着通胀降温，美联储面临着更大的两难境地。

    It was never in doubt.

    这一点从未被怀疑过。

    In the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, investors assigned a probability of nearly 99% to the central bank raising interest rates once again.

    在美联储最近一次会议召开前夕，投资者认为美联储再次加息的可能性接近99%。

    On July 26th policymakers duly fulfilled those expectations, with their 11th increase in 12 meetings, together making for America’s sharpest course of monetary tightening in four decades.

    7月26日，政策制定者如期实现了这些预期，他们在第12次会议上宣布第11次加息，使之成为美国40年来最严格的货币紧缩进程。

    The central bank’s next steps, however, are clouded by uncertainty.

    然而，央行的下一步举措被不确定性所笼罩。

    Some economists are convinced that this will be the Fed’s last rate rise in this cycle.

    一些经济学家确信，这将是美联储在本轮周期中的最后一次加息。

    Inflation has come down from its highs in 2022, with consumer prices rising by just 3% year-on-year in June.

    通货膨胀率已经从2022年的高点回落，6月份消费者价格同比仅上涨3%。

    Core inflation—which strips out volatile food and energy costs—has been a little more stubborn, but even it has started to soften, in a sign that underlying price pressures are easing.

    剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀略显顽固，但就连核心通胀也开始疲软，这表明潜在的价格压力正在缓解。

    This opens a pathway for the Fed to relent, hopefully guiding America to a much-discussed soft landing.

    这为美联储打开了一条缓和道路，有望引导美国走向备受讨论的软着陆。

    Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley, a bank, expects an “extended hold” for the Fed, presaging a rate cut at the start of next year.

    摩根士丹利银行的艾伦·曾特纳预计美联储将“延长暂停时间”，预示明年年初将会降息。

    Others are not so sure.

    其他人则不那么确定。

    Inflation has consistently wrong-footed optimists over the past couple of years.

    过去几年，通胀一直令乐观主义者措手不及。

    Were, for instance, energy prices to rally, consumers and businesses could quickly revise up their expectations for inflation, nudging the Fed towards another rate increase.

    例如，如果能源价格上涨，消费者和企业可能会迅速上调他们对通胀的预期，这将推动美联储再一次加息。

    If an incipient rebound in housing prices gathers pace, that would also fuel concerns.

    如果房价开始反弹的步伐加快，这也会加剧人们的担忧。

    Vigour in the labour market adds to the worries, because fast-rising wages feed into inflation.

    劳动力市场的活跃加剧了人们的担忧，因为快速上涨的工资会加剧通胀。

    Remarkably, the Fed’s aggressive actions have barely affected American workers thus far: the unemployment rate today is 3.6%, identical to its level in March 2022 when the Fed raised rates for the first time in this cycle.

    值得注意的是，到目前为止，美联储的激进行动几乎没有影响到美国劳动者：现在的失业率为3.6%，与2022年3月美联储在本轮周期中首次加息时的水平相同。

    The pace of tightening would normally be expected to drive up unemployment.

    紧缩的步伐通常被认为会推高失业率。

    Instead, the recovery from the covid-19 pandemic, including an increase in the number of willing workers, seems to have cushioned the economy.

    相反，新冠肺炎疫情之后的复苏，包括愿意工作的劳动力数量增加，似乎为经济提供了缓冲。

    Opposing views among economists are mirrored within the Fed itself.

    经济学家之间的观点对立也反映在美联储内部。

    For the past two years America’s central bankers have spoken in similar terms about the peril of inflation, and have been nearly unanimous when it comes to big rate moves.

    在过去的两年里，美国的中央银行官员们在谈到通货膨胀的危险时都用了类似的措辞，而且在利率大幅变动的问题上也几乎是观点一致的。

    In recent months, however, divisions have surfaced.

    然而，近几个月来，分歧已经显现。

    Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, has come to represent the more hawkish voices.

    美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒已开始代表更强硬的声音。

    This month he warned that the central bank could continue raising rates until there is sustained improvement in inflation, dismissing the over-optimism bred by the weaker-than-expected price figures for June.

    本月，他警告称，央行可能会继续加息，直到通胀持续改善，并未理会因6月份低于预期的价格数据而滋生的过度乐观情绪。

    “One data point does not make a trend,” he warned.

    他警告说：“一个数据点并不能说明趋势。”

    At the other end of the spectrum is Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, who said even before the latest rate increase that the central bank could stop hiking.

    另一个极端是美联储亚特兰大分行行长拉斐尔·博斯蒂克，他甚至在最近一次加息之前就表示，央行可以停止加息。

    “Gradual disinflation will continue,” he assured listeners in late June.

    他在6月下旬向听众保证：“通胀逐步放缓将持续下去。”

    Even if the latest rate increase does end up marking the peak for the Fed, Jerome Powell, its chairman, has maintained a hawkish tilt in his pronouncements.

    即使最近一次加息确实标志美联储的加息措施达到顶点，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔依然在他的声明中保持了强硬倾向。

    “What our eyes are telling us is that policy has not been restrictive enough for long enough,” he told a press conference following the rate rise.

    他在加息后的新闻发布会上表示：“我们看到的情况告诉我们，政策的抑制力度还不够大，时间还不够长。”

    Financial conditions have loosened in recent months.

    近几个月来，金融状况有所放松。

    The S&P 500, an index of America’s biggest stocks, is up nearly one-fifth from its lows in March, when a handful of regional banks collapsed.

    标准普尔500指数（美国最大股票的指数）从三月份的低点上涨了近五分之一，三月份时有几家地区性银行倒闭。

    With his sterner tone, Mr Powell may want to restrain investors from getting ahead of themselves, which could add to inflationary momentum.

    鲍威尔的语气较为严厉，他可能希望阻止投资者过早行动，因为这可能会加剧通胀势头。

    Central bankers wanting to preserve their reputations as inflation-fighters may prefer to err towards toughness.

    央行官员们想要维护自己作为通胀斗士的声誉，他们可能更倾向于采取强硬态度。

    Steven Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank, likens the Fed to a weather forecaster who thinks there is a 30% chance of rain.

    渣打银行的史蒂文·英格兰德将美联储比作认为有30%的可能性会下雨的天气预报员。

    It still makes sense to highlight the potential for wet weather, because predicting sun but getting rain is perceived as worse than predicting rain and ending up with sun.

    强调阴雨天气的可能性仍然是有道理的，因为预测晴天结果下雨，被认为比预测下雨结果晴天更糟糕。

    In practice, the Fed is sure to be flexible, reacting to economic data.

    在实践中，美联储肯定会灵活行事，对经济数据做出反应。

    It can look north of the American border for an example of the impossibility of maintaining a fixed policy stance.

    它可以把目光投向美国边境以北，那里有不可能保持固定政策立场的例子。

    The Bank of Canada had stopped its rate-rise cycle in January, thinking that inflation had crested.

    加拿大银行在一月份停止了加息周期，认为通货膨胀已经达到顶峰。

    But in June it was forced to resume tightening because economic growth had remained too hot, and inflation too sticky, for comfort.

    但在6月份，加拿大银行被迫重新收紧政策，因为经济增长仍然过热，通胀仍然过于顽固，令人不快。

    Ultimately, though, there are no risk-free choices for the Fed.

    归根结底，美联储并不存在无风险的选择。

    What is seen as the more doveish option—holding rates steady for the rest of this year—will in fact take on an increasingly hawkish hue if inflation does continue to recede.

    如果通胀真的持续回落，被视为较为温和的选择--在今年剩余时间内保持利率不变--实际上将呈现出越来越强硬的色彩。

    Unchanged nominal rates would be ever more restrictive in real terms (assuming that inflationary expectations diminish alongside waning price pressures).

    保持不变的名义利率将实际上变得更有抑制性(假设通胀预期逐渐降低，同时价格压力也逐渐减弱)。

    In such a scenario central bankers wishing to maintain their current policy stance should therefore think about cutting rates.

    在这种情况下，希望维持当前政策立场的央行官员应该考虑降息。

    When inflation was sky-high, the Fed’s task was tough yet its decisions quite straightforward: officials did not really have much choice but to raise rates.

    当通胀处于极高水平时，美联储的任务艰巨，但其决定非常直截了当：官员们除了加息之外真的没有多少选择。

    From here on, its task looks easier but its decisions more fraught.

    从这之后，美联储的任务看起来更容易，但决定更引人担忧。