2023年经济学人 美国信用合作社面临风险（在线收听）

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Death valley

    死亡谷

    America's credit unions are exposed to a nasty consequence of higher rates.

    美国信用社面临高利率带来的恶劣后果。

    The federal reserve’s interest-rate rises are causing pain in the land of casinos: Nevadans are googling how to return their car more than folk in any other state.

    美联储加息给赌城带来了痛苦：内华达州比其他任何州都有更多的人在谷歌上搜索如何退还（断供的）汽车。

    Yet while their pain is acute, it is not unique.

    然而，尽管他们痛苦不堪，但并不孤苦伶仃。

    Across America, the share of high-risk auto borrowers that are behind on payments by at least 60 days reached 6.1% in September, its highest in three decades (even if just a little higher than in 2019).

    在全美，拖欠还款至少60天的高风险汽车借款人所占的比例在9月份达到6.1%，为30年来的最高水平(但只比2019年略高)。

    This spells trouble for an unglamorous yet increasingly important institution: the credit union.

    这给一家平淡无奇但日益重要的机构带来了麻烦：信用社。

    After all, one in three Americans who borrowed to buy a car during the covid-19 pandemic did so from such an organisation.

    毕竟，在新冠肺炎期间，三分之一的美国人都是从这样的组织借钱买车的。

    The sector is now looking at a liquidity crunch of its own, as investments struggle and regulators demand bigger buffers.

    由于投资减少，监管机构也要求信用社有更多的储备金，因此信用社目前正面临流动性紧缩问题。

    America’s 4,700-odd credit unions provide members with generous deposit rates and lending terms, and are run on a not-for-profit basis—an approach that won over savers during the low-rate era.

    美国有4700多家信用社，为会员提供慷慨的存款利率和贷款条件，并以非营利性的方式运营，这种经营方式在低利率时代赢得了许多储户。

    All told, they now hold deposits worth more than 10% of those in traditional banks.

    信用社现在总计持有的存款价值达到了传统银行的10%以上。

    In response to current difficulties, credit unions have been forced to break with their business model, and have raised deposit rates more slowly than banks.

    为了应对当前的困难，信用社被迫打破了他们的商业模式，比银行更慢地提高存款利率。

    Although they usually benefit from the fact that members, who tend to be associated with an institution such as a government bureaucracy or university, are patient types, that patience is now being tested.

    尽管信用社的储户往往与政府或大学等机构有关联，这类储户更有耐心，这种耐心也对信用社有利，但他们的耐心现在正在受到考验。

    Average deposits in credit unions fell by 3.5% in the year to July, an unwelcome trend in a sector that has enjoyed near-continuous growth since the 1970s.

    今年前6个月，信用社的平均存款额下降了3.5%，对于自20世纪70年代以来几乎持续增长的信用社来说，这是一个不利的趋势。

    Despite raising deposit rates slowly, credit unions are showing less restraint elsewhere.

    尽管存款利率上调缓慢，但信用社在其他地方的克制较少。

    Outstanding loans grew by 12% in the year to July, and growth is not slowing.

    今年前6个月，未偿还贷款增长了12%，且增长速度并未放缓。

    A fifth of union savings are in outfits where loans exceed deposits, up from an 80th at the start of 2021—meaning they need greater liquidity to ensure safety.

    五分之一的信用社储蓄放在贷款超过存款的机构中，高于2021年初的八十分之一，这意味着信用社需要更大的流动性来确保安全。

    Indeed, regulators are monitoring the sector’s liquidity.

    事实上，监管机构正在监控信用社的流动性。

    Just four unions went under in the first half of the year—consistent with recent trends—and in aggregate balance-sheets look healthy.

    今年上半年，只有4家信用社倒闭，这与最近的趋势一致，总体的资产负债表看起来比较健康。

    There are some worrying shifts, however.

    然而，也有一些令人担忧的转变。

    Cash and cash equivalents have fallen by half as a share of assets from a high reached during the pandemic, as unions have sought to meet loan demand.

    由于信用社力图满足贷款需求，现金和现金等价物占资产的比例已从疫情期间的高点下降了一半。

    Although they also face higher interest rates, co-operatives are nevertheless taking on debt: their borrowing is now equivalent to 6% of assets, up from an average of 3.5% over the past decade.

    尽管信用社也面临着更高的利率，但它们仍然在借贷：借款现在相当于资产的6%，而过去十年的平均水平为3.5%。

    This has led credit unions to seek other sources of funding, including by selling loans.

    这导致信用社寻求其他资金来源，包括出售贷款。

    Normally they trade among themselves, notes Steve Rick of TruStage, a mutual-insurance company.

    互惠保险公司TruStage的史蒂夫·里克指出，通常情况下，信用社之间会进行交易。

    But such is the state of the sector that few co-operatives have the cash to buy others’ loans.

    但目前的情况是没有几家信用社有现金能去购买其他信用社的贷款。

    Some have thus turned to the asset-backed securities market, in which they can exchange their car loans for cash upfront at the same time as offloading credit risks from their balance-sheets.

    因此，一些信用社转向了资产担保的证券市场，在这里，他们可以将汽车贷款提前兑换成现金，同时将信贷风险从资产负债表中剥离出来。

    Unfortunately, they can do so only on particularly bad terms.

    不幸的是，要达成这种交易就会和借贷人的关系闹得很僵。

    Since 2017 credit unions have raised $2.8bn in such markets, some $1.6bn of which has come in the past six months.

    自2017年以来，信用社已在这类市场上筹集了28亿美元，其中约16亿美元是在过去6个月里筹集的。

    This represents a large increase in costs, and as a consequence signals that there is little chance of better rates on deposits for members in the months to come.

    这意味着成本大幅增加，因此表明，未来几个月会员的存款利率提高的可能性微乎其微。

    Like Nevada’s car-owners, many may end up simply walking away.

    像内华达州的车主一样，许多会员最终可能会干脆离开信用社。