2023年经济学人 OPEC会议推迟暴露的问题（在线收听）

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Fissures

    裂隙

    Disobedient OPEC members are causing problems for Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    不听话的OPEC成员国给俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯带来了麻烦。

    The meeting in November of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) was meant to be a staid affair.

    石油输出国组织及其合作伙伴（OPEC+）在11月的会议本应是严肃无趣的。

    Instead, the summit was first pushed back from the 26th and then moved online, revealing a fracas between the cartel’s big producers and its minnows.

    相反，峰会先是从原定的26日推迟，然后转移到线上召开，透露了这个卡特尔组织中的大生产商和小成员之间正在争吵不休。

    After acquiescing to lower output quotas at their previous meeting in June, OPEC+’s west African members were unhappy to learn that Russia and Saudi Arabia, the bloc’s de facto leaders, wanted to further curtail output.

    在6月份的上一次会议上，OPEC的西非成员国默许了降低产量配额，然后它们得知，俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯（OPEC实际上的领头国）希望进一步削减产量，这让它们很不高兴。

    One oil minister, Diamantino Azevedo of Angola, planned to boycott the in-person meeting altogether.

    安哥拉石油部长迪亚曼蒂诺·阿泽维多计划（在抵制产量削减的同时）一并抵制这场面对面的会议。

    As The Economist went to press, OPEC+ was at last due to meet online.

    在《经济学人》付印之际，OPEC+终于要在线上会面了。

    Members were reported to be preparing modest additional cuts into 2024.

    据报道，成员国正准备在2024年继续进行适度的减产。

    This would represent the extension of a strategy in place since last October, under which they try to resist downward pressure on prices by restricting supply.

    这将是去年10月实施的一项战略的延伸，根据该战略，OPEC试图通过限制供应来抵制价格下行的压力。

    Saudi Arabia and Russia are leading the way, with cuts of 1m barrels a day (b/d) and 300,000 b/d respectively; the rest of OPEC+ is together contributing another 3.7m b/d in cuts.

    沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯带头，分别减产了100万桶/日和30万桶/日，其余成员国总计又减产了370万桶/日。

    Yet the price of the Brent crude benchmark is down by around 15% since the strategy was introduced—it currently sits at $83 a barrel—and has fallen for the past five weeks.

    然而，自该策略出台以来，布伦特原油基准价格已下跌约15%（目前为每桶83美元），而且过去五周都在持续下跌。

    The back-and-forth over November’s pow-wow exposes the difficulties that OPEC+ faces.

    11月会议的反复无常暴露出了OPEC+所面临的困难。

    Recent oil-price drops reflect both expectations of slowing global demand, influenced by concerns over China’s economy, and the fact that geopolitical risk has fallen: few now expect the war in Gaza to turn into a broader regional conflict.

    最近的油价下跌既反映了全球需求放缓的预期（对中国经济感到担忧的影响），也反映了地缘政治风险下降的事实：现在很少有人认为加沙战争会演变成更广泛的地区冲突。

    At the same time, other producers, including America, Brazil and Guyana, have increased output, making up for OPEC+’s cuts.

    与此同时，包括美国、巴西和圭亚那在内的其他产油国也增加了产量，弥补了OPEC+的减产。

    Yet the price falls also reflect the fact that OPEC+ is struggling to hold the line.

    然而，油价下跌也反映出OPEC+正在艰难地守住底线。

    The cartel welcomed an additional ten countries when it gained the plus sign in 2016, and plans to recruit still more.

    该卡特尔组织在2016年欢迎了10个国家加入，并在名称上添加了加号，而且计划招募更多国家。

    A larger organisation has no choice but to straddle divergent interests, as is now clear.

    一个更庞大的组织别无选择，只能横跨在不同利益之上，如今的情形就清晰地显示了这一点。

    The Angolan minister who planned to boycott the in-person get-together also walked out of another meeting in June alongside his counterpart from Gabon.

    这位计划抵制线下会议的安哥拉部长也在6月份与加蓬的石油部长一起退出了另一场会议。

    The two ministers were apparently protesting against quota reductions.

    这两位部长显然是在抗议配额削减。

    Along with others, they worry that output cuts will hurt investment in exploration .

    与其他人一样，他们担心减产会不利于勘探投资。

    At least Angola does not exceed its targets.

    至少安哥拉没有超出其目标配额。

    Not all countries are so well-behaved.

    但并不是所有国家都这么守规矩。

    Iraq, for example, is producing 180,000 b/d more than its limit.

    例如，伊拉克的石油日产量比其上限高出18万桶。

    Iran and Venezuela are not subject to the group’s production caps because of sanctions.

    由于受到制裁，伊朗和委内瑞拉不受该组织的产量上限限制。

    Mexico refuses to accept quotas.

    墨西哥拒绝接受配额。

    Despite being members of OPEC+, all have been selling more oil of late, eagerly hoovering up the market share forfeited by Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    尽管是OPEC+的成员国，但它们最近都在出售更多的石油，急切地想要吞掉俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯丢失的市场份额。

    The last time the group faced a similar state of affairs—decelerating demand, new entrants and co-ordination problems—in 2014, officials chose a different strategy, as Alberto Behar of the IMF and Robert Ritz of Cambridge University have written.

    国际货币基金组织的阿尔贝托·贝哈尔和剑桥大学的罗伯特·里茨写道，该集团上一次面临类似情况（石油需求放缓、新成员加入、成员国间的协调问题）是在2014年，当时官员们选择了一种不同的战略。

    Back then members increased supply in an attempt to drive down the oil price.

    当时，成员国增加了供应，试图压低油价。

    The aim, as announced at OPEC’s meeting in November nine years ago, was to grab market share (and in so doing drive out American competitors).

    9年前OPEC在11月的会议上宣布，此举的目的是夺取市场份额(并从而赶走美国竞争对手)。

    This had the advantage of stimulating demand and not requiring discipline among OPEC’s members: they were able to produce oil to their hearts’ content.

    这样做的好处是刺激了需求，而且不需要OPEC成员国遵守纪律：他们能够尽情地生产石油。

    Such an approach is no longer feasible.

    这样的方法不再可行。

    OPEC’s market-share strategy last time round helped discipline America’s oil producers, pushing them to become more efficient and therefore more resistant to future squeezes.

    OPEC上一轮的市场份额战略帮助训练了美国的石油生产商，促使它们变得更有效率，从而能够更好地抵御未来的价格挤压。

    JPMorgan Chase, a bank, reckons that the cost of getting oil out of the American ground has declined by more than one-third since 2014.

    摩根大通银行估计，自2014年以来，美国开采石油的成本已经下降了三分之一以上。

    The country’s oilmen have found methods to fracture rocks that produce more fissures, easing the extraction of oil, and now drill deeper wells that have longer lifespans.

    美国的石油商已经找到了压裂岩石并增加裂缝的方法，从而使石油开采更容易，并且现在他们已经在钻探寿命更长的更深的油井。

    Saudi Arabia would very much like OPEC+’s current strategy to succeed.

    沙特阿拉伯非常希望OPEC+目前的战略能取得成功。

    Its free-spending government has pushed up the price at which the country’s budget balances to $85 a barrel, according to the IMF—and that number is higher when outlays from its sovereign wealth fund are included.

    因为根据IMF的数据，挥霍无度的沙特政府要想让该国预算结平，石油价格就要升至每桶85美元，如果将其主权财富基金的支出包括在内，这一数字还会更高。

    Russia, meanwhile, needs oil revenues to fund its war in Ukraine.

    与此同时，俄罗斯也需要石油收入为其在乌克兰的战争提供资金。

    Delaying the meeting to November 30th did not help either country.

    将会议推迟到11月30日对两国都没有帮助。

    Both will now be hoping for a change in their luck.

    现在，两国都在希望自己能交上好运。