华盛顿邮报 美国经济真的变好了吗(1)（在线收听）

    Alright, so, give us the short story of the last couple years of the economy.

    好，给我们讲讲过去几年的经济情况吧。

    Well, to summarize it, the vibes have been off.

    好，总结一下，气氛一直不对劲。

    This is Rachel Siegel. She writes about the economy for The Post. And for the past few years, she's been covering crisis after crisis.

    这是瑞秋·西格尔。她为《华盛顿邮报》撰写经济方面的文章。在过去的几年里，她一直在报道接二连三的危机。

    You had an emergency health crisis that plunged the economy into a recession. You had supply chains going haywire, inflation shoot up.

    经历了一场突发的健康危机，这场危机导致经济陷入衰退。供应链陷入混乱，通胀飙升。

    The labor market seemed to be slow to recover at first and then just grew like gangbusters.

    劳动力市场一开始似乎恢复得很慢，不过后来迎来势如破竹地增长。

    And it has been so hard to get a sense of what's happening in the economy in real time.

    要实时了解经济的发展情况非常困难。

    Now we're at this place where a lot of those things are getting better.

    现在我们处在一个所有事物都向好的位置。

    The supply chains are getting better. The job market is still growing. Inflation is improving.

    供应链正在变好。就业市场仍在增长。通货膨胀正在好转。

    But there's still this term that economists will reach for, sometimes called a vibecession, where the vibes just still feel kind of off.

    不过，经济学家仍然会用到这个术语，有时被称为“氛围衰退”，指的是气氛仍然感觉不太对劲。

    It's still hard to understand why people are feeling really sour about the economy, even if, by some measures, things are really improving and we haven't had an actual recession yet.

    我们仍然很难理解为什么人们对经济感到如此悲观，即使从某些方面来看，情况确实在好转，而且我们还没有真正陷入衰退。

    Today on the show, we're taking a closer look at the economy and whether, after all the fears of a recession, it might actually be kind of good.

    在今天的节目中，我们将进一步关注经济，在所有对经济衰退的担忧之后，我们想知道经济是否真的变好了。

    So, Rachel, I feel like we've been hearing for months that we're headed for a recession, the economy is bad, prices are high, everything is terrible.

    蕾切尔，我觉得几个月来我们一直听到有人说我们正走向经济衰退，经济不景气，物价高，一切都很糟糕。

    Is that starting to change a little bit?

    这种情况开始有所改变了吗?

    Sounds crazy to say, but I think it might actually be changing.

    这样说很古怪，但我认为情况可能正在改变。

    We've been in this booth before talking about the recession that must surely be coming because of high inflation and high interest rates.

    在讨论高通胀和高利率必然会导致经济衰退前，我们已经在这个位置上了。

    But there are a lot of signs starting to pile up now that look like we're moving in a different direction.

    但现在有很多迹象开始叠加，貌似我们正在朝着不同的方向前进。

    Yeah, so, what are some of those signs that we might be turning a corner?

    对，有哪些迹象表明我们可能会出现转机呢?

    Well, the good news is that the job market is still growing. We've had 30 straight months of job growth.

    好消息是，就业市场仍在增长。我们已经连续30个月实现了就业增长。

    Inflation has come down from its peak from last summer, and even though it has a little bit of a ways to go, it's really moving in the right direction.

    通货膨胀已从去年夏天的峰值回落，尽管控制通胀还需要走很长的路，但我们确实在朝着正确的方向发展。

    People are still spending. They're going on vacation. They're shopping for cars. They're shopping for houses.

    人们仍在消费。人们要去度假。人们在买车。人们在买房。

    And, overall, the businesses that I talk to, the families I talk to, they might have specific struggles, but they're feeling a little bit better about where the economy is headed overall.

    总的来说，我采访过的企业，采访过的家庭，他们可能有特定的难事，但他们对经济的整体发展方向感觉好多了。

    Alright, so, employment growing for 30 straight months sounds fantastic, but I also hear about a lot of people having to work three jobs, having to really struggle, take on gigs just to make ends meet. What about wages?

    好，连续30个月的就业增长听起来很棒，但我也听说很多人不得不打三份工，不得不挣扎着打零工来维持生计。工资怎么样呢?

    So, there's some good news there, too. Wages have now grown faster than inflation for four straight months.

    这里也有一些好消息。工资增长已经连续四个月快于通货膨胀了。

    So, as you mentioned, even though there have been a ton of jobs coming online, inflation was often climbing faster.

    正如你所提到的，即使有大量的工作机会出现在网上，但通货膨胀往往上涨得更快。

    Inflation was making it so that even if you did get a new job or maybe even if you were saddling two jobs, you still wouldn't be able to make ends meet.

    即使你找到了一份新工作，即使你同时承受两份工作，通货膨胀也会让你无法维持生计。