华盛顿邮报 特朗普爱荷华州取得压倒性胜利(6)（在线收听）

So, in the primary, um, I'm supporting Nikki Haley.

我在初选支持尼基·黑利。

I think she is -- brings a lot of the substantive policy analysis that we saw from Asa, but is also, like, a viable candidate.

我觉得她带来了我们从阿萨(Asa Hutchinson)身上看到的很多实质性的政策分析，但她也是一个有望当选的候选人。

And I think that's just another part of how persuasive she is in her town halls, is because she treads such a careful line between being too much of one thing, and a lot of voters can hear themselves in what she says.

我认为，她在市政厅有说服力也会有另一方面，因为她在小心翼翼地处理、平衡每一件事，很多选民可以从她的演讲中听到自己的声音。

So when she talks about abortion, for example, I've asked people afterwards like, "What do you think she believes in? Like, imagine a Nikki Haley presidency. And what do you think is the abortion law of the land?"例如，当她谈到堕胎时，我后来问人们，“你认为她信仰什么? 想象一下，如果尼基·黑利担任总统，你觉得这个国家的堕胎法会是怎样的?”

And I get wildly different answers.

我得到了截然不同的答案。

I'll get people who say, like, "I think there will be a federal ban because she said she's pro-life."我听到有人说：“我认为会有联邦禁令，因为她说她反对堕胎。”

And then I will get people who say, "She wouldn't pass an abortion ban. She said that she respects women's right to choose."我也听到有人说：“她不会通过堕胎禁令。她说她尊重女性的选择权。”

Which I think -- Yeah, that really reflects the fact that even the party and the base can't figure out what the consensus is on this issue.

我认为——是的，这确实反映了一个事实--即使是政党和基层也无法在这个问题上达成共识。

But, like, you know, Michael, I guess, does this mean that Nikki Haley is doing well in this race? Is she doing good?

迈克尔，这是否意味着尼基·黑利在这场竞选中表现不错? 她表现好吗?

I mean, if you're coming second in any kind of a primary, I would imagine that wouldn't be seen as a success, but as 2024 is happening, it's, of course, an unconventional year. So is this a successful campaign?

如果你在任何一场初选中获得第二名，我认为这都不会被视为成功，但随着2024年的到来，这当然是不寻常的一年。那么，这是一次成功的活动吗?

Well, right now, yeah, Nikki is having the most successful campaign next to Trump.

现在，尼基竞选活动所获得的成功仅次于特朗普。

We don't know what that means yet.

我们还不知道这意味着什么。

I mean, historically, the winner of the Iowa caucus on the Republican side does not become the president.

从历史上看，爱荷华州共和党党团会议的获胜者不会成为总统。

It's a very evangelical, rural state that the rest of the Republican electorate doesn't always follow.

爱荷华州是一个非常福音派的乡村州。其他共和党选民并不总是关注这个州。

Really? So that's not actually a good measure of success later on in the campaign?

真的吗? 爱荷华州的竞选结果并不能很好地衡量竞选后期的成功吗?

No, I mean, you can think back to the past winners.

不能衡量，你可以回想一下过去的胜选者。

Mike Huckabee did not win in 2008. Rick Santorum did not go on to become the Republican nominee.

麦克·哈克比没有赢得2008年大选。里克·桑托勒姆没有成为共和党总统候选人。

Rick Santorum won the Iowa caucus?

里克·桑托勒姆赢得了爱荷华州的党团会议?

Yeah, that's right. But it can be a springboard. And there is a real precedent here.

是的，没错。但爱荷华州也可以充当一个跳板。这是有先例的。

And this is what Nikki is gaming at, that she's right now in some polls less than double digits behind Trump in New Hampshire.

这就是尼基在玩的游戏，她目前在新罕布什尔州的一些民调中落后特朗普不到两位数。

New Hampshire is the last major contest before her home state of South Carolina, which will come in late February. There's about a month in between there.

新罕布什尔州是她在家乡南卡罗来纳州之前的最后一场主要初选活动。南卡罗来纳州的初选活动将于2月底举行。这中间大概有一个月的时间。

So she is hoping for an above-expectations win in Iowa, if she comes in second, if she ties DeSantis.

她希望在爱荷华州取得超出预期的胜利，如果她获得第二名，如果她与德桑蒂斯的选票并列。

I mean, right now the polls are basically even for DeSantis and Haley in Iowa.

现在在爱荷华州，德桑蒂斯和黑利的支持率基本持平。

If she can beat expectations, that will give her a boost going into New Hampshire.

如果她能超出预期，这将给她进入新罕布什尔州带来助力。

That will hurt DeSantis, who is not really a factor right now in New Hampshire.

这将会打击德桑蒂斯。他目前在新罕布什尔州并没有真正的影响力。

Chris Christie just got out. And she has a real shot in New Hampshire, I think, of either basically tying or coming very close to Trump or beating Trump.

克里斯·克里斯蒂刚出狱。我认为她在新罕布什尔州很有可能追上特朗普，或者非常接近特朗普，或者击败特朗普。