VOA慢速英语20060213a

DEVELOPMENT REPORT - How Bad Will Malaria¹ Season Be? New System Could Help TellBy Jill Moss²

Broadcast: Monday, February 13, 2006

This Is Shep O'Neal with the VOA Special English Development Report.

Scientists have what they say is a better early warning system for the spread of malaria. The system uses computer programs from Europe to study climate conditions.

Changes in climate and rainfall influence the spread of malaria. The risk of a severe outbreak increases after a season of heavy rain.

The disease³ is caused by a parasite⁴ carried by mosquitoes. Mosquitoes lay their eggs in water. So more water means more places for the insects to reproduce⁵.




The World Health Organization estimates⁶ that more than one million people every year die from malaria. Most are young African children. Hundreds of millions of other people get sick.

The new system is called Demeter. The scientists say it can help show countries with malaria what the weather will be like several months into the future. The computer models combine information on ocean warming, sea surface temperatures, wind and rainfall levels.

The scientists described the new system in a report in the journal⁷ Nature. They tested it with climate information from Botswana from between nineteen eighty-two and two thousand two.

The models were most successful at predicting years with very low outbreaks of malaria. The scientists say Demeter was correct eighty-five percent of the time.

The work involved scientists from Britain, the United States and Botswana.

Tim Palmer led a team in England at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. He says the system will give health officials more time to try to limit the spread of malaria. Other early warning systems used in parts of Africa provide only several weeks to prepare.

More time to prepare would mean more time to supply people with anti-malaria drugs and bed nets treated with insect poison. It would also mean more time to cover water supplies and areas where rainwater collects.

Demeter is being used now to help countries in southern Africa. Simian⁸ Mason from the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York is involved in the project. He says the findings⁹ so far suggest that the next malaria season should not be especially bad.

He says there was a risk of a little higher rainfall than normal. But he says the scientists did not feel this would mean a big increase in the risk of malaria epidemics¹⁰ this year.

This VOA Special English Development Report was written by Jill Moss. Read and listen to our reports at www.unsv.com. This is Shep O'Neal.

1 malaria   

n.疟疾

参考例句：

• He had frequent attacks of malaria.他常患疟疾。
• Malaria is a kind of serious malady.疟疾是一种严重的疾病。

2 moss   

n.苔，藓，地衣

参考例句：

• Moss grows on a rock.苔藓生在石头上。
• He was found asleep on a pillow of leaves and moss.有人看见他枕着树叶和苔藓睡着了。

3 disease   

n.疾病，弊端

参考例句：

• The doctors are trying to stamp out the disease.医生正在尽力消灭这种疾病。
• He fought against the disease for a long time.他同疾病做了长时间的斗争。

4 parasite   

n.寄生虫；寄生菌；食客

参考例句：

• The lazy man was a parasite on his family.那懒汉是家里的寄生虫。
• I don't want to be a parasite.I must earn my own way in life.我不想做寄生虫，我要自己养活自己。

5 reproduce   

v.生育，繁殖，复制，重做

参考例句：

• The machine can reproduce a key in two minutes.这机器能在两分钟内复制一把钥匙。
• The picture will reproduce well.这照片会印得很清楚。

6 estimates   

估计

参考例句：

• Unofficial estimates put the figure at over two million. 非官方的估计数字为200万以上。
• We got estimates from three different contractors before accepting the lowest. 我们得到3个承包商的报价后，接受了最低的报价。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 journal   

n.日志，日记；议事录；日记帐；杂志，定期刊物

参考例句：

• He kept a journal during his visit to Japan.他在访问日本期间坚持记日记。
• He got a job as editor of a trade journal.他找到了一份当商业杂志编辑的工作。

8 simian   

adj.似猿猴的；n.类人猿，猴

参考例句：

• Ada had a wrinkled,simian face.埃达有一张布满皱纹、长得像猿猴的脸。
• Curiosity is the taproot of an intellectual life,the most valuable of our simian traits.好奇是高智生命的根源，也是我们类人猿特征中最有价值的部分。

9 findings   

n.发现物( finding的名词复数 )；调查（或研究）的结果；（陪审团的）裁决

参考例句：

• It behoves us to study these findings carefully. 我们理应认真研究这些发现。
• Their findings have been widely disseminated . 他们的研究成果已经广为传播。

10 epidemics   

n．流行病

参考例句：

• Reliance upon natural epidemics may be both time-consuming and misleading. 依靠天然的流行既浪费时间，又会引入歧途。
• The antibiotic epidemics usually start stop when the summer rainy season begins. 传染病通常会在夏天的雨季停止传播。