VOA慢速英语2014 低出生率威胁韩国生存

 

AS IT IS 2014-09-03 Low Birthrate Threatens South Korea's Survival 低出生率威胁韩国生存

South Korea’s National Assembly Research Service says no one will be living in the country by 2750 if women there do not start having more children.

Last year, the birthrate was 1.19 children for every woman. The Research Service report says the country’s population will decrease from 50 million to 10 million by 2136 if the rate does not increase. The report says the population will continue to drop to three million by 2200, and to only one million by 2256. The research shows the country will be empty by 2750 if there is no change.

The report predicts the southern port city of Busan would be the first city to empty. It predicts 2413 as the year the last person will be born in the city. It says the capital Seoul will have its final birth in 2505.

David Coleman is a population expert, or demographer¹, at Oxford² University. The South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo says that Mr. Coleman warned of South Korea’s low birthrate back in 2006. He reportedly said it was so low that it could become the first country to lose its entire population.

According to the CIA Factbook, only one country and three major territories have a lower birthrate than South Korea. They are: Singapore, Macau, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Many Asian and European countries face dropping birthrates like South Korea. Japan’s birthrate is recorded at 1.4 per woman while Germany is a little higher at 1.43. The fall in birthrate is a more serious problem for Asian countries like South Korea and Japan where fewer immigrants arrive and fill in for the lost native population.

South Korea faces other problems.

In July, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported on a study by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics³ and Trade. The study predicted the country’s population competitiveness⁴ among the 29 member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. It said it would go from 17th place in 2010 to 21st place in 2030.

The main reason for the drop is the fast growth of the country’s aging population. Fewer children means the country must put in place a higher tax rate to support government payments to older people. This weakens the country’s economy.

The Wall Street Journal notes that South Korea began urging women to have fewer children in the early 1960s during the presidency⁵ of Park Chun-Hee. His oldest child -- Park Geun-hye -- is now the president.

1 demographer   

n.人口统计学家

参考例句：

• Professor Antonio Golini is a demographer at the University of Rome. 罗马大学安东尼奥教授是位人口统计学家。 来自互联网
• Demographer William Frey says immigrants with young families will help keep the United States competitive. 人口统计学家佛瑞表示这些年轻的家庭会帮助美国保持竞争力。 来自互联网

2 Oxford   

n.牛津（英国城市）

参考例句：

• At present he has become a Professor of Chemistry at Oxford.他现在已是牛津大学的化学教授了。
• This is where the road to Oxford joins the road to London.这是去牛津的路与去伦敦的路的汇合处。

3 economics   

n.经济学，经济情况

参考例句：

• He is studying economics,which subject is very important.他正在学习经济学，该学科是很重要的。
• One can't separate politics from economics.不能把政治与经济割裂开来。

4 competitiveness   

n.竞争能力

参考例句：

• At the same time shifts in international competitiveness were beginning to be felt. 与此同时，国际市场上的竞争能力也出现了变化。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• Their scientific know-how, innovation and technical capability are critical to maintaining the nation's competitiveness and productivity. 它们的科学知识、革新和技术能力对于保持本国的竞争力和生产率来说都是至关重要的。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件

5 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。