VOA慢速英语2014 Warning of Risks, Reports Predict Economic Gains in 2015

 

Warning of Risks, Reports Predict Economic Gains in 2015

From VOA Learning English, this is the Economics Report.

Two recent economic reports warn that, although the world economy is growing, complicating¹ issues like lower oil prices and conflict could hurt progress.

The International Monetary² Fund, or IMF, has reduced its prediction for world economic growth from 3.8 to 3.5 percent. That is still an improvement over 2014. But, the international lender says some major economies are facing economic struggles.

The price of oil is about half of what it was last June. The IMF’s chief economist³, Olivier Blanchard, says lower oil prices have helped many major economies, but investment has dropped in oil exporting countries.

“On the one hand, major economies are benefiting from the decline in the price of oil,” Blanchard says. “But on the other, in many parts of the world, lower long run prospects⁴ adversely⁵ affect demand.”

The United Nations also released a report called “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2015.” UN economists⁶ predict growth this year will be 3.1 percent. They point out that crises like the Ebola outbreak in West Africa and conflict in Ukraine could hurt a world economy showing signs of improvement.

Many see cost-cutting as a barrier to growth. High debt levels have limited opportunities for expansion in Europe. Alfredo Calcagno is an economist with the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development. He says austerity programs suppress economic recovery. Greece, he said, is one example.

The report predicts Africa’s growth rate will increase reaching 4.6 percent in 2015 and 4.9 percent in 2016. East-African countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda are doing well.

“In these countries, what you have is investment in other areas like telecommunication⁷, infrastructure⁸. You have a rising middle class that also is increasing its demands.”

But in Africa south of the Sahara Desert, IMF economists say growth expectations have weakened especially in Nigeria and South Africa. Falling prices of raw materials called commodities have also weakened expectations in Latin American and the Caribbean area.

Exchange rates can also influence economic growth. The value of the US dollar has strengthened while the euro and the yen⁹ have weakened. And that is not a bad thing for slowing European and Japanese economies says the IMF’s Olivier Blanchard.

“The depreciation¹⁰ of the euro and yen will give a much needed boost to demand in those two parts of the world, which very much need an increase in demand.”

The U.S. also is expected to show good growth of over three percent this year.

UN economists expect East Asia to remain the fastest growing area with economic expansion of almost five percent. However, both IMF and the UN economists expect China’s growth to be under seven percent in 2015.

Words in This Story

austerity-n. a situation in which there is not much money and it is spent only on things that are necessary

commodities-n. widely traded basic goods needed for food or industry

boost-v. to lift, to push up

1 complicating   

使复杂化( complicate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• High spiking fever with chills is suggestive of a complicating pylephlebitis. 伴有寒战的高热，暗示合并门静脉炎。
• In America these actions become executive puberty rites, complicating relationships that are already complicated enough. 在美国，这些行动成了行政青春期的惯例，使本来已经够复杂的关系变得更复杂了。

2 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

5 adversely   

ad.有害地

参考例句：

• We commented adversely upon the imbecility of that message of telegraphic style. 我们对着这条电报式的愚蠢的留言发泄了一通不满。
• Widely fluctuating exchange rates may adversely affect international trade. 浮动幅度很大的汇率可能会对国际贸易产生有害的影响。

6 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 telecommunication   

n.电信，远距离通信

参考例句：

• Telecommunication is an industry of service.电信业是一个服务型的行业。
• I only care about the telecommunication quality and the charge.我只关心通信质量和资费两个方面。

8 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

9 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

10 depreciation   

n.价值低落，贬值，蔑视，贬低

参考例句：

• She can't bear the depreciation of the enemy.她受不了敌人的蹂躏。
• They wrote off 500 for depreciation of machinery.他们注销了500镑作为机器折旧费。