VOA新闻杂志2022--俄乌冲突影响世界经济

Russia-Ukraine Conflict Affects Worldwide Economy

There was so much oil in April 2020 that the price of a barrel of oil in the American state of Texas fell below $0 for a short time. Sellers had to pay buyers to take it.

Less than two years later, the international price of a barrel of oil rose above $100 Thursday. The increase followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And it came at a time when the world's economy is slowly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Russia and Ukraine together produce less than two percent of the world's gross domestic product - the total market value of both countries' finished goods and services. But the conflict has increased existing inflation. This has frightened investors¹ and affected² everyone from Europe to Asia and Africa.

Higher fuel prices

Russia is the world's third-biggest oil producer and is a major exporter of natural gas. Ukraine's farms provide food for millions of people around the world.

Europe receives about 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia. The price of gas is now four times higher than it was at the start of 2021. And Germany, on Tuesday, suspended approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline³ as part of Western nations' economic sanctions against Russia.

A mild winter and liquefied natural gas from the United States have helped ease some of Europe's concerns about a possible loss of Russian gas supplies.

High gas prices, however, have led to higher costs for home heating fuel and cutbacks by heavy industrial users. The yearly rate of inflation also rose to 5.1 percent in January in the 19 countries that use the euro. That is the highest rate since record-keeping began for the group in 1997.

Reduced wheat export

Ukraine is the world's fifth-largest wheat exporter. The threat to farms in eastern Ukraine and exports through Black Sea ports could reduce wheat supplies at a time when food prices are at their highest level since 2011. Some countries are suffering from food shortages.

Agriculture expert Alex Smith wrote about the threat in the publication Foreign Policy last month. Many countries that depend on Ukraine's wheat, he wrote, "already face food insecurity from ongoing⁴ political instability or outright⁵ violence." Yemen, for example, imports 22 percent of its wheat from Ukraine, Libya about 43 percent and Lebanon about half.

Inflation

Rising energy and food prices will increase pressure on policymakers and central banks struggling to control inflation. The London-based research firm Capital Economics estimated that the Ukraine crisis could force higher natural gas prices and send oil prices up to as much as $140 a barrel.

That combination would add two percentage points to yearly inflation in the world's rich countries, Capital Economics said.

In the United States, prices of goods, not including energy and food, rose at a rate of 7.5 percent for the 12 months ending in January. It was the highest yearly increase in 40 years.

On Tuesday, American President Joe Biden announced several new sanctions against Russian banks and powerful leaders for what he called "the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine." Biden also warned Americans, "As I said last week, defending freedom will have costs, for us as well and here at home."

As of Thursday, the American Automobile⁶ Association said the national average gasoline price in the U.S. is $3.54 a gallon, about 3.8 liters. A gallon of gasoline cost $2.66 just one year ago.

Lower stock prices

The values of stocks, however, dropped in most financial markets around the world.

In Russia, the Moscow stock exchange dropped nearly 45 percent Thursday following President Vladimir Putin's announcement of a "military operation" against Ukraine. And the nation's currency, the ruble, dropped to a record low against the American dollar.

Market indexes in Europe, Asia and the U.S. all fell. In the face of international political worries, Michael Taylor, managing director at Moody's Investors Service, warned that investors may switch to safe investments. If that happens, it could drive up the costs of borrowing for riskier⁷ businesses.

"Chinese property developers would be particularly exposed to this risk" as they try to deal with large amounts of foreign debt this year, Taylor said.

Some fear that financial markets could become riskier if the U.S. bans Russia from the worldwide financial payment network SWIFT. The network links thousands of banks and permits them to exchange payments around the world.

Such a move would cut off oil payments to Russia which add up to 40 percent of the country's revenue. But it could also hurt U.S. and European companies that do business with Russian companies.

Elina Ribakova is an economist⁸ with the Institute of International Finance in Washington, D.C. She said risk is not limited to Russia.

"There is a risk for global finance as much as there is for Russia," said Ribakova.

Words in This Story

sanctions – n.(pl.) actions taken to force a country to obey international law by limiting or stopping trade or cutting economic aid

instability –n. the state of being likely to change

expose –v. to be affected by something; to experience something

add up to –v. to put together or count (the number or amount of something) to find the total

revenue –n. money that is made by or paid to a business or an organization

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

3 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

4 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

5 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

6 automobile   

n.汽车，机动车

参考例句：

• He is repairing the brake lever of an automobile.他正在修理汽车的刹车杆。
• The automobile slowed down to go around the curves in the road.汽车在路上转弯时放慢了速度。

7 riskier   

冒险的，危险的( risky的比较级 )

参考例句：

• Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
• The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来：RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。