VOA新闻杂志--美国气象机构预测今夏美国将迎来超正常水平的飓风季

US Agency¹ Predicts Busy Hurricane Season

A leader of the U.S. government-run weather agency said he expects a record-setting hurricane season this summer for the Atlantic Ocean.

Rick Spinrad is the administrator² for NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric³ Administration⁴. He told the Associated Press that the summer season in the Atlantic will produce from 14 to 21 large storms. About half of them will become the powerful storms known as hurricanes. Three to six of them will turn into major hurricanes with winds measuring about 200 kilometers per hour.

The number of damaging storms changes over long periods of time. Over 30 years, the number of large storms was about 14. But in 2020, there were 30 and last year there were 21.

The strength of a hurricane is shown by its category. Category 5 storms have the highest measured wind speeds. Spinrad said, in the past five years, the number of Category 4 or 5 storms that reached land in the United States was more than all such storms in the 50 years before that.

He said this year will be "similar" to past years and warned "if you fail to plan around this outlook⁵, you're planning to fail."

He said people who own homes or land in the coastal⁶ areas usually affected⁷ by storms need to protect their property.

Matthew Rosencrans predicts storms for NOAA. He said all of the things that go into producing big hurricanes are present this year. That includes a heavy rainy season in West Africa. A cooling pattern in the Pacific Ocean known as La Nina that affects weather around the world is another predictor. And warmer ocean temperatures caused by climate change are another.

Other weather experts not associated with NOAA agreed that there will be a higher number of damaging storms this year. They said the La Nina weather event reduces a kind of wind that can lower the strength of hurricanes. As countries around the world reduce pollution, the air has become cleaner, they said. This increases sunlight that makes water temperature rise.

Deanne Criswell is director of FEMA, the Federal⁸ Emergency Management Agency. The agency helps people after disasters.

"We're seeing these storms happen more frequently," she said at a news event in New York City. "They're lasting⁹ longer."

Criswell said the change in the number of storms that come from climate change is "dramatic¹⁰."

NOAA said 13 people died in 2021 when Hurricane Ida flooded many cities in the northeastern U.S. Eleven people in New York City who lived in below-ground housing¹¹ died because of the floods. This year is also the 10-year anniversary¹² of Sandy, a large storm that caused a loss of power and flooding in much of New York City.

NOAA said there is a 65 percent chance that this year's storm season will be "above normal."

Phil Klotzbach researches hurricanes at Colorado State University. He said six straight years with a high ACE¹³, a measure of storm strength, is a record, and "really strange."

Ten other weather teams agree with NOAA. The groups come from the government, universities and private weather companies. The average of their predictions suggests there will be 20 big storms and eight hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes are expected to be major ones.

NOAA predicts the Pacific Ocean will be quieter because of the influence of cool La Nina conditions.

Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1.

Words in This Story

category – n. a group of things that are similar

pattern– n. something that happens in a repeated way

frequent- adj. happening often

dramatic- adj. sudden, extreme, or claiming a lot of attention

1 agency   

n.经办；代理；代理处

参考例句：

• This disease is spread through the agency of insects.这种疾病是通过昆虫媒介传播的。
• He spoke in the person of Xinhua News Agency.他代表新华社讲话。

2 administrator   

n.经营管理者，行政官员

参考例句：

• The role of administrator absorbed much of Ben's energy.行政职务耗掉本很多精力。
• He has proved himself capable as administrator.他表现出管理才能。

3 atmospheric   

adj.大气的，空气的；大气层的；大气所引起的

参考例句：

• Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation are strongly coupled.海洋表面温度与大气环流是密切相关的。
• Clouds return radiant energy to the surface primarily via the atmospheric window.云主要通过大气窗区向地表辐射能量。

4 administration   

n.经营，管理；行政，行政机关，管理部门

参考例句：

• Who is in charge of the administration of your company?你们公司的行政工作由谁负责？
• The teachers are responsible to the school administration.教师向学校行政负责。

5 outlook   

n.观点，见解；展望，前景

参考例句：

• The outlook for the economy is bright.经济前景光明。
• Her outlook gradually widens.她的眼光渐渐开阔了。

6 coastal   

adj.海岸的，沿海的，沿岸的

参考例句：

• The ocean waves are slowly eating away the coastal rocks.大海的波浪慢慢地侵蚀着岸边的岩石。
• This country will fortify the coastal areas.该国将加强沿海地区的防御。

7 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

8 federal   

adj.联盟的；联邦的；(美国)联邦政府的

参考例句：

• Switzerland is a federal republic.瑞士是一个联邦共和国。
• The schools are screaming for federal aid.那些学校强烈要求联邦政府的援助。

9 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

10 dramatic   

adj.引人注目的；戏剧的；演戏的

参考例句：

• She plays a very dramatic woman with flashing eyes.她饰演一位双眼闪光的引人注目的妇人。
• His speech was dramatic.他的演说激动人心。

11 housing   

n.房屋，住宅；住房建筑；外壳，外罩

参考例句：

• Do you think our housing sales will turn around during this year?你认为今年我们的住宅销路会好转吗？
• The housing sales have been turning down since the summer.入夏以来，房屋的销售量日趋减少。

12 anniversary   

n.周年(纪念日)

参考例句：

• They celebrate their wedding anniversary annually.他们每年庆祝一番结婚纪念日。
• Today is my parents'30th wedding anniversary.今天是我父母结婚30周年纪念日。

13 ace   

n.A牌；发球得分；佼佼者；adj.杰出的

参考例句：

• A good negotiator always has more than one ace in the hole.谈判高手总有数张王牌在手。
• He is an ace mechanic.He can repair any cars.他是一流的机械师,什么车都会修。