VOA科学技术2023--Economists Wonder If Few or Many Will Benefit from AI

Economists² Wonder If Few or Many Will Benefit from AI

Throughout history, technological³ progress has brought new wealth but has not always improved people's lives. Economists now say it is not clear whether artificial intelligence (AI) will help or hurt society.

Simon Johnson teaches economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology near Boston. He said AI has a lot of possibilities. But he added, "We are at a fork in the road." A fork in the road is an expression used to describe a situation where the outcome is uncertain.

Wealth, jobs and productivity

McKinsey is a business consulting company. It said AI could add between $14 trillion and $22 trillion of value to the world's economy.

Supporters say the technology will create wealth and improve living standards. Some go as far as saying AI will increase people's free time and help them be more creative.

But others are worried the technology will lead to lost jobs. They point to Hollywood writers and actors who are worried that they will be replaced by technology.

The internet arrived with a similar promise of more productivity, wealth and jobs. Last month, the French bank Natixis noted⁴ in its research that most of the wealth has gone to a few billionaires. And many of the jobs do not require highly paid, skilled workers.

The bank warned in its report, "We should be cautious when estimating the effects of artificial intelligence on labor⁵ productivity."

In July, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released its opinion research of 5,300 workers about AI. Some workers hope the technology will increase pay and job satisfaction. But they are also concerned that the technology could push people to work too hard.

Lessons from history

Such concerns are not unfounded. History has shown the economic impact of technological progress is generally uncertain, unequal and even harmful.

Johnson recently published a book, Power and Progress, with Daron Acemoglu, another economist¹ from MIT. They studied technological progress over the last 1,000 years including clothing production, train travel, and even food shopping.

The two economists looked at an invention called the spinning jenny that made it easier to turn cotton and wool into yarn⁶. They said the device helped clothing production and created wealth for many people in the late 1700s. However, it also increased the demand for cotton and led to longer hours for workers. The demand also led to the growth of slavery in the southern United States.

Johnson noted that it is easier to create something new than to make sure it works for everyone. His book shows how the arrival of rail travel improved the lives of many people in England in the 1800s. People were able to travel longer distances and eat fresh food because it could move faster from farms to cities.

On the other hand, Johnson said self-checkout technology at food stores does not lower the cost or make life easier for people. All it does is reduce the number of workers and help businesses lower labor costs.

As for AI technology, Johnson wonders if it will make existing inequalities worse, or "could it help us get back to something fairer?"

Words in This Story

outcome –n. the result of an event or choice

consulting –n. a business based on doing research and providing suggestions to another company about how to be more successful

standards –n. a level of quality

cautious –n. careful

yarn –n. fibers⁷ of plants or animal hair that a refined and used to make clothing, fabrics⁸ or floor coverings

self-checkout –n. a machine or system at a food store that permits customers to pay for items without help from anyone else

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

4 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

5 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

6 yarn   

n.纱，纱线，纺线；奇闻漫谈，旅行轶事

参考例句：

• I stopped to have a yarn with him.我停下来跟他聊天。
• The basic structural unit of yarn is the fiber.纤维是纱的基本结构单元。

7 fibers   

光纤( fiber的名词复数 )； （织物的）质地； 纤维，纤维物质

参考例句：

• Thesolution of collagen-PVA was wet spined with the sodium sulfate as coagulant and collagen-PVA composite fibers were prepared. 在此基础上，以硫酸钠为凝固剂，对胶原-PVA共混溶液进行湿法纺丝，制备了胶原-PVA复合纤维。
• Sympathetic fibers are distributed to all regions of the heart. 交感神经纤维分布于心脏的所有部分。

8 fabrics   

织物( fabric的名词复数 )； 布； 构造； （建筑物的）结构（如墙、地面、屋顶）：质地

参考例句：

• cotton fabrics and synthetics 棉织物与合成织物
• The fabrics are merchandised through a network of dealers. 通过经销网点销售纺织品。