VOA科学技术2023--Study: Part of Antarctica to Experience ‘Unavoidable’ Melt

Study: Part of Antarctica to Experience ‘Unavoidable’ Melt

A new study says that no matter how much the world cuts back on carbon emissions³, a large and important part of Antarctica is expected to disappear.

Researchers used computer models to predict the future melting of protective⁴ ice around Antarctica's Amundsen Sea in western Antarctica. They said the "unavoidable" melting will take hundreds of years. It will slowly add nearly 1.8 meters to sea levels. And it will be enough to reshape where and how people live in the future.

The study was published recently in Nature Climate Change. It found that even if future warming was limited to just a few tenths of a degree more, it would have "limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse⁵ of the West Antarctic¹ Ice Sheet."

Many scientists say the goal of just a few tenths of a degree of warming is unlikely⁶ to be met.

"Our main question here was: How much control do we still have over ice shelf melting? How much melting can still be prevented by reducing emissions?" said study lead writer Kaitlin Naughten. She is an expert on oceans at the British Antarctic Survey.

She said their research suggests that Earth is set on the path to a quick increase in the rate of ocean warming and ice shelf melting over the rest of the century.

While past studies have talked about how serious the situation is, Naughten was the first to use computer modeling to study how warm water from below will melt the ice.

The study looked at four different cases in how much carbon emissions the world produces. In each case, ocean warming was just too much for this area of the ice to survive, the study found.

Naughten looked at melting, floating areas of ice that hold back glaciers⁸. Once these areas of ice melt, there is nothing to stop the glaciers behind them from flowing into the sea.

The study also looked at what would happen if future warming was limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius⁹ over mid-19th century levels: the international goal. They found the runaway¹⁰ melting process in this case as well.

The world has already warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times and much of this summer went past the 1.5 degrees mark.

Naughten's study looked at the part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that is most at risk from melting from below, near the Amundsen Sea. It includes the very large Thwaites ice shelf that is melting so fast it is called "the Doomsday Glacier⁷."

That part of Antarctica "is doomed," said University of California Irvine ice scientist ice scientist Eric Rignot. He was not part of the study. He added, "The damage has already been done."

Naughten does not like to use the word "doomed," because she said 100 years from now, the world might not just stop but drive back carbon levels in the air and climate change. But she said what is happening now on the ground is a slow collapse that cannot be stopped, at least not in this century.

Words in This Story

emission² – n. the act of producing or sending out something (such as energy or gas) from a source

shelf – n. a flat area of rock, sand, or ice, especially underwater

glacier – n. a very large area of ice that moves slowly down a slope or valley or over a wide area of land

runaway – adj. operating, running, or increasing in a fast and dangerous way that cannot be controlled

doom¹¹ – n. very bad events or situations that cannot be avoided

1 Antarctic   

adj.南极(区)的；n.(the A-)南极洲，南极圈

参考例句：

• The Antarctic is a mountainous area.南极洲是一个多山的地区。
• It is well known that penguins live in the Antarctic.企鹅生活在南极洲是众所周知的。

2 emission   

n.发出物，散发物；发出，散发

参考例句：

• Rigorous measures will be taken to reduce the total pollutant emission.采取严格有力措施，降低污染物排放总量。
• Finally,the way to effectively control particulate emission is pointed out.最后，指出有效降低颗粒排放的方向。

3 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

4 protective   

adj.防护的，保护的

参考例句：

• A mother naturally feels protective towards her children.做母亲的天生要保护自己的孩子。
• We feel safe with a protective device in the house.我们因为家里有了防护装置而感到安全。

5 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

6 unlikely   

adj.未必的，多半不可能的；不大可能发生的

参考例句：

• It was very unlikely that he would do that.他不见得会做那种事。
• It is unlikely that she will come. 她不大可能来了。

7 glacier   

n.冰川，冰河

参考例句：

• The glacier calved a large iceberg.冰河崩解而形成一个大冰山。
• The upper surface of glacier is riven by crevasses.冰川的上表面已裂成冰隙。

8 glaciers   

冰河，冰川( glacier的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Glaciers gouged out valleys from the hills. 冰川把丘陵地带冲出一条条山谷。
• It has ice and snow glaciers, rainforests and beautiful mountains. 既有冰川，又有雨林和秀丽的山峰。 来自英语晨读30分（高一）

9 Celsius   

adj.摄氏温度计的，摄氏的

参考例句：

• The temperature tonight will fall to seven degrees Celsius.今晚气温将下降到七摄氏度。
• The maximum temperature in July may be 36 degrees Celsius.七月份最高温度可能达到36摄氏度。

10 runaway   

n.逃走的人，逃亡，亡命者；adj.逃亡的，逃走的

参考例句：

• The police have not found the runaway to date.警察迄今没抓到逃犯。
• He was praised for bringing up the runaway horse.他勒住了脱缰之马受到了表扬。

11 doom   

n.厄运，劫数；v.注定，命定

参考例句：

• The report on our economic situation is full of doom and gloom.这份关于我们经济状况的报告充满了令人绝望和沮丧的调子。
• The dictator met his doom after ten years of rule.独裁者统治了十年终于完蛋了。