VOA名师答疑2023--Prediction and Projection

Prediction and Projection¹

Hello! This week on Ask a Teacher, we will answer a question about the difference between "projection" and "prediction."

Question:

Hello,

This is Mohammed from Libya. I would like to know the difference between "projection" and "prediction." How can I use them the right way?

Thanks!

Best regards,

Mohammed

Answer

Dear Mohammed,

Thanks for writing to us. These two words are similar and are often used to describe guesses about the future, but they have some interesting differences.

Let's start with "prediction."

Prediction

The word "prediction" is a noun² meaning a statement about what will happen in the future. Because people make predictions, they may or may not happen. "Predictions" are often made for the near future.

We often use this word's verb form, "predict," with events like the weather.

For example, in the Science and Technology Report "Study: Exxon Scientists Predicted Global Warming since 1970s," the word "prediction" is used in the plural³ form to talk about the possibility of world temperature changes in the 1970s.

"A new study says scientists at the oil company Exxon Mobile⁴ made accurate⁵ predictions about global warming starting in the 1970s."

A study by Harvard University researchers said that the "predictions" made by scientists in the 1970s became true. That means they believed something would happen in the future, and it happened that way.

Not only scientists make predictions about the weather. Groundhogs also make predictions. Groundhogs are large animals that live under ground.

On February 2nd in the United States, several groundhogs including Punxsutawney Phil in the state of Pennsylvania and French Creek⁶ Freddie in West Virginia, wake up and "predict" the weather for spring. The activities around these "predictions" are cultural traditions rather than real weather forecasts.

The tradition goes like this: If the groundhogs see their shadows, meaning that it is a sunny day with no clouds, the prediction is there will be six more weeks of winter.

If they do not see their shadows, meaning that it is cloudy and there is no sun, the groundhogs' prediction is there will be an early spring.

This year, Punxsutawney Phil's prediction is that there will not be an early spring because he did see his shadow.

Let's move onto "projection."

Projection

"Projection" is a noun. It has a similar meaning to "prediction," something that might happen in the future. But "projections⁷" can change depending on the situation or conditions.

"Projections" are created based on numbers and facts. But if that information changes, it is understood that the projection changes too. Projections are often made for longer periods.

For example, in 2019, projections for children finishing secondary⁸ education programs by 2030 were only at 60 percent worldwide. That was only if conditions stayed the same.

Since COVID-19 affected⁹ children's education, that projection has probably changed.

Here is another example:

Recently the United Nations reported a projection for the world's population increasing to 9.7 billion people by the year 2050.

And here is one additional¹⁰ note: The word projection is often used to describe information in a form that can be seen, like a graph¹¹ or chart. A prediction is a statement about the future, but, unlike a projection, it is not easily changed if the underlying¹² conditions change.

Please let us know if these explanations and examples have helped you, Mohammed!

Words in This Story

accurate –adj. free from mistakes or errors

weather forecast – n. a statement saying what the weather will be like the next day or for the next few days

shadow – n. an area of darkness created when a source of light is blocked

1 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

2 noun   

n.名词

参考例句：

• What kind of noun is this?这是哪类名词？
• This word is a collective noun.这个词是个集体名词。

3 plural   

n.复数；复数形式；adj.复数的

参考例句：

• Most plural nouns in English end in's '.英语的复数名词多以s结尾。
• Here you should use plural pronoun.这里你应该用复数代词。

4 mobile   

adj.可移动的，易变的，机动的；n.运动物体

参考例句：

• The old lady sits on a mobile chair every morning.那位老妇人每天上午坐在一把可携带使用的椅子上。
• She's much more mobile now that she's bought a car.自从她买了汽车后，活动量就大多了。

5 accurate   

adj.正确无误的；准确的，精确的

参考例句：

• He has made an accurate measurement of my garden.他准确地丈量了我的花园。
• He is always accurate in what he says and does.他说的和做的总是正确无误。

6 creek   

n.小溪，小河，小湾

参考例句：

• He sprang through the creek.他跳过小河。
• People sunbathe in the nude on the rocks above the creek.人们在露出小溪的岩石上裸体晒日光浴。

7 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

8 secondary   

adj.中级的，中等的，次要的；n.次要位置，副手

参考例句：

• It's a question of secondary importance.这是个次要的问题。
• Secondary school means junior school and high school.中学是指初中和高中。

9 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

10 additional   

adj.添加的，额外的，另外的

参考例句：

• It is necessary to set down these additional rules.有必要制定这些补充规则。
• I think we can fit in an additional room.我想我们可以再加建一间房子。

11 graph   

n.图表，图解，曲线图

参考例句：

• Such a graph is defined to be a contact network.我们把这样的图定义为一个接触网络。
• Our soundings are displayed in the form of a graph.我们的调查结果已用图表列出。

12 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。