VOA科学技术2024--Study: US Hurricanes Much Deadlier Than Government Estimates

 

A new study says hurricanes in the United States are hundreds of times deadlier than government estimates say. In fact, the research finds, they result in more American deaths over the long term than car accidents or wars.

The study found the average storm that hits the U.S. contributes to the early deaths of 7,000 to 11,000 people over a 15-year period.

Solomon Hsiang is a climate economist¹ at Stanford University in California. Hsiang co-wrote the study with Rachel Young of the University of California Berkeley.

"After each storm there is sort of this surge of additional mortality in a state that's been impacted that has not been previously² documented or associated with hurricanes in any way," Hsiang said.

Nature magazine published the study.

Researchers take a wider look

The research considers hurricane deaths in a new way: through examination of long-term public health and economic effects of what is called excess mortality. The investigators³ looked at individual state death rates following 501 separate storms in the United States between 1930 and 2015. Their research shows a sudden rise or "bump" in death rates after each storm.

Similar examinations are done for heat waves and other health threats like pollution and disease, Hsiang said. They compare death rates to pre-storm times while accounting⁴ for other influences that could be causing change to those rates, he said.

Hsiang said additional research is needed to learn how storms contribute to deaths after the bad weather passes. But he theorized that storms cause major stress as well as environmental changes, including the spread of poisonous substances. He also said the economic cost of storms can leave people unable to pay for health care and other necessities.

Early deaths

"When someone dies a few years after a hurricane hit them, the cause will be recorded as a heart attack, stroke or respiratory failure," said Texas A&M University climate scientist Andrew Dessler. He was not part of the study but has done similar research on heat and cold deaths.

Hsiang said he and Young were surprised when they examined hundreds of bumps and found they stretch out over 15 years.

It's "almost like a trickle⁵ of mortality, like each month we're talking about five to 10 individuals who are dying earlier than they would have otherwise," Hsiang said.

These deaths are of people who did not realize their health issues were connected to storms that took place years earlier. But, Hsiang said, that is what the data shows: "They would not have died at those times had the storm not arrived."

The numbers proved so high that the researchers kept looking for mistakes in their work. "It took years for us to really fully⁶ accept that this was happening," Hsiang said.

How big are the numbers?

Storms are a factor in between 55,000 to 88,000 excess deaths each year, the study found. Over the 85 years included in the study, the team found that between 3.6 million and 5.2 million people died in connection with storm experience. That is more than the two million car accident deaths over that same period, the study said.

Hsiang said he and Young saw a trend of increasing hurricane-connected deaths, mostly as a result of population growth. Beginning in 2000, there was a big jump in the total volume of storms hitting large populations, he said.

Words in This Story

contribute - v. to have a part in bringing about something

mortality - n. the death of large numbers (as of people or animals)

previously - adv. going before in time or order

associate - v. to link or connect

trickle - n. to move or go one by one or little by little

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

3 investigators   

n.调查者，审查者( investigator的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• This memo could be the smoking gun that investigators have been looking for. 这份备忘录可能是调查人员一直在寻找的证据。
• The team consisted of six investigators and two secretaries. 这个团队由六个调查人员和两个秘书组成。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

5 trickle   

vi.淌，滴，流出，慢慢移动，逐渐消散

参考例句：

• The stream has thinned down to a mere trickle.这条小河变成细流了。
• The flood of cars has now slowed to a trickle.汹涌的车流现在已经变得稀稀拉拉。

6 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。