欧洲－马期哈多夫之死影响车臣和平进程

Chechen Peace Prospects¹ Said to Dim in Aftermath of Maskhadov Killing²

 

Recent Chechen history has brought to prominence³ two separatist leaders who have been fighting Russian forces for about a decade.

 

One was Aslan Maskhadov, former elected president of Chechnya, considered by many experts to be a moderate figure willing to negotiate with Russia. The other is Shamil Basayev, a far more radical⁴ leader, willing to use terrorist tactics to achieve his goal of full independence from Russia. Last month, Russian forces killed Mr. Maskhadov as he was pinned down in a bunker north of Chechnya's capital, Grozny.

 

Experts on the Chechen crisis say one cannot draw a parallel between the two separatist leaders. Marshall Goldman, from Harvard University, has been a long-time observer of the Russian scene.

 

Marshall Goldman: The important thing about Maskhadov was that he kept talking about the need to mediate⁵, to work out some kind of arrangement with the Russian government. His problem was that he couldn't control everybody in Chechnya, so he could say one thing, but then the Basayevs and others would act on their own.

 

Experts say another difference between the two is that Mr. Maskhadov has condemned⁶ terrorist acts while Mr. Basayev has claimed responsibility for some of the worst acts of terrorism in post-Soviet Russia. They included the seizure⁷ of a Moscow theater in October 2002 and last September's raid on a school in Beslan, North Ossetia where more than 330 people were killed, half of them children. However Russian President Vladimir Putin considers both men terrorists and his fight against Chechen separatists as part of the international war on terrorism.

 

Yo'av Karny is a scholar who has written extensively on Chechnya.

 

Yo'av Karny: To think of Maskhadov as an Osama bin⁸ Laden⁹ character, hiding in the cares of Chechnya, is truly laughable and, as it has been all along, self-serving in terms of Russian rhetoric¹⁰. Sometimes I confess to not being sure whether the Russians pretend to think he was a terrorist, or are convinced that he was and in either case, that would suggest a certain detachment from reality on the part of the Russians.

 

Analysts¹¹ say another key difference between the two men is that Mr. Maskhadov was willing to negotiate with Russian authorities while Mr. Basayev rejected any notion of talks.

 

John Russell is an expert on Chechnya from Bradford University. He says Mr. Maskhadov's death allows the Russian government to continue its policy of refusing to talk with Chechen separatists.

 

John Russell: What it does do, of course, is it allows Putin to say to the international community: who is there left to negotiate with? You may not agree that we have rubbed out an international terrorist, but you must agree that the only person left is an international terrorist, Basayev. So that by elevating Maskhadov to the same degree of diabolical¹² international terrorism, they have actually provided a scenario¹³ in which the international community can't really insist that they [i.e., the Russians] sit down and talk with the remaining elements of the Chechen opposition¹⁴.

 

Mr. Russell says given the current situation, there is no chance of talks between the Russians and Chechen separatists.

 

John Russell: Maskhadov would have represented a body of moderate opinion that would have settled for less than outright¹⁵ Chechen independence. Basayev, I think, would not, and that's the difference, in some ways. There would be no obvious outcome of negotiations¹⁶ between the Russians and Basayev. There could have been a positive outcome for all concerned, if Maskhadov had survived to enter into negotiations.

 

Experts say the future for any peaceful solution to the Chechen conflict is gloomy. They say Russian forces will continue to hunt down Mr. Basayev. Analysts also say there is no doubt that he will engage in more terrorist acts.

 

Yo'av Karny sees another outcome, now that Mr. Maskhadov is dead.

 

Yo'av Karny: Disintegration¹⁷ of the independence movement. We should expect some violent spasms¹⁹ here and there, perhaps on a dramatic scale, perhaps more terrorism. But the independence movement as an organized entity²⁰ is no longer. It cannot claim to speak on behalf of anyone other than its own warlords.

 

Chechen separatists have named Abdul-Khalim Saidullayev, a local religious leader, to succeed Aslan Maskhadov. Experts say very little is known about Mr. Saidullayev but they all agree that he neither has Aslan Maskhadov's stature²¹ nor his following.

 

For Focus, I’m Andre de Nesnera.

 

注释：

prominence [5prRminEns] n. 突出，明显的事物

separatist [5sepEreitist] n. 分离主义者，独立派

moderate [5mCdErit] adj. 中立的，缓和的

radical [5rAdikEl] adj. 激进的

pin down 镇压

parallel [5pArElel] n. 平行线，平行面

mediate [5mi:djEt] v. 仲裁，调停

Osama bin Laden 奥萨马·本·拉登

rhetoric [5retErik] n. 花言巧语

rub out 抹去，擦去，这里指消灭

diabolical [daiE5bClikEl] adj. 恶魔的

scenario [si5nB:riEu] n. 特定的情节

gloomy [5^lu:mi] adj. 黑暗的，阴郁的，令人沮丧的

disintegration [dis7inti5^reiFEn] n. 瓦解

spasm¹⁸ [5spAzEm] n. 一阵发作，痉挛，这里指不断的冲突事件

warlord [5wC:lC:d] n. 军阀，军阀式首脑

1 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

2 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

3 prominence   

n.突出；显著；杰出；重要

参考例句：

• He came to prominence during the World Cup in Italy.他在意大利的世界杯赛中声名鹊起。
• This young fashion designer is rising to prominence.这位年轻的时装设计师的声望越来越高。

4 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

5 mediate   

vi.调解，斡旋；vt.经调解解决；经斡旋促成

参考例句：

• The state must mediate the struggle for water resources.政府必须通过调解来解决对水资源的争夺。
• They may be able to mediate between parties with different interests.他们也许能在不同利益政党之间进行斡旋。

6 condemned   

adj. 被责难的, 被宣告有罪的 动词condemn的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He condemned the hypocrisy of those politicians who do one thing and say another. 他谴责了那些说一套做一套的政客的虚伪。
• The policy has been condemned as a regressive step. 这项政策被认为是一种倒退而受到谴责。

7 seizure   

n.没收；占有；抵押

参考例句：

• The seizure of contraband is made by customs.那些走私品是被海关没收的。
• The courts ordered the seizure of all her property.法院下令查封她所有的财产。

8 bin   

n.箱柜；vt.放入箱内；[计算机] DOS文件名:二进制目标文件

参考例句：

• He emptied several bags of rice into a bin.他把几袋米倒进大箱里。
• He threw the empty bottles in the bin.他把空瓶子扔进垃圾箱。

9 laden   

adj.装满了的；充满了的；负了重担的；苦恼的

参考例句：

• He is laden with heavy responsibility.他肩负重任。
• Dragging the fully laden boat across the sand dunes was no mean feat.将满载货物的船拖过沙丘是一件了不起的事。

10 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

11 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

12 diabolical   

adj.恶魔似的，凶暴的

参考例句：

• This maneuver of his is a diabolical conspiracy.他这一手是一个居心叵测的大阴谋。
• One speaker today called the plan diabolical and sinister.今天一名发言人称该计划阴险恶毒。

13 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

14 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

15 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

16 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

17 disintegration   

n.分散，解体

参考例句：

• This defeat led to the disintegration of the empire.这次战败道致了帝国的瓦解。
• The incident has hastened the disintegration of the club.这一事件加速了该俱乐部的解体。

18 spasm   

n.痉挛，抽搐；一阵发作

参考例句：

• When the spasm passed,it left him weak and sweating.一阵痉挛之后，他虚弱无力，一直冒汗。
• He kicked the chair in a spasm of impatience.他突然变得不耐烦，一脚踢向椅子。

19 spasms   

n.痉挛( spasm的名词复数 )；抽搐；（能量、行为等的）突发；发作

参考例句：

• After the patient received acupuncture treatment,his spasms eased off somewhat. 病人接受针刺治疗后，痉挛稍微减轻了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The smile died, squeezed out by spasms of anticipation and anxiety. 一阵阵预测和焦虑把她脸上的微笑挤掉了。 来自辞典例句

20 entity   

n.实体，独立存在体，实际存在物

参考例句：

• The country is no longer one political entity.这个国家不再是一个统一的政治实体了。
• As a separate legal entity,the corporation must pay taxes.作为一个独立的法律实体，公司必须纳税。

21 stature   

n.（高度）水平，（高度）境界，身高，身材

参考例句：

• He is five feet five inches in stature.他身高5英尺5英寸。
• The dress models are tall of stature.时装模特儿的身材都较高。