亚洲发展银行称禽流感将重创亚洲及至世界经济

Asian Development Bank Says Economic Impact of Bird Flu on Asia, World Could be Massive

亚洲发展银行称禽流感将重创亚洲及至世界经济

 

The Asian Development Bank estimates that a bird flu pandemic would have a massive impact on Asian economies, causing as much as $297 billion in damage, and possibly forcing the entire world into recession.

 

The ADB report bases its projections² in part on the impact of the SARS epidemic³ in 2003, which began in Southern China, and spread as far as North America and South America. The ADB estimates the economic impact of SARS in East Asia alone was around $18 billion.

 

The SARS epidemic lasted only for several months, infected about 8,000 people and killed 800 worldwide.

 

But a bird flu pandemic involving the H5N1 strain of the virus is forecast to be much more damaging in human and economic terms. The ADB report quotes the World Health Organization as estimating that between two and seven million people could die worldwide. Other estimates are much higher.

 

Erik Bloom, the ADB economist⁴ who was the lead author of the report, sees two possible economic scenarios⁶ in a bird flu pandemic.

 

Erik Bloom: In the first scenario⁵ we're looking at a relatively⁷ short psychological impact lasting⁸ about two quarters [six months]. And in this case we would expect to see demand, and in particularly the trade in services, to decline significantly, for about two quarters. In the second scenario we consider a much longer psychological impact in which consumption and the trade in services declines for about a year. Under the second scenario, the economic impact is substantially more severe.

 

In the first case, the ADB says Asia could suffer a total of about $113 billion in losses. In the second case, it says, the figure jumps to about $297 billion, while the global trade in goods and services would shrink by around 14 percent - the equivalent of $2.5 trillion. This would likely force the world into a recession.

 

Mr. Bloom notes that the psychological impact of such a disease is much greater than the direct results of sick workers and lost production.

 

Erik Bloom: The fact that people panic, that their consumption declines, is much more important economically than the actual impact of the disease. And this is something we saw with SARS as well. Very few people were actually affected⁹ by SARS, and yet it caused a significant slowdown in economic growth.

 

Mr. Bloom says economies would suffer from a decline in activities that require personal contact, such as dining out, movies, domestic travel and trade shows. He noted¹⁰ that this was the case in Hong Kong and Singapore, two major Asian business centers, during the SARS outbreak.

 

Since 2003, more than 60 people have died from the H5N1 strain of bird flu in Southeast Asia. So far most of the victims have contracted the virus from infected poultry¹¹. Authorities fear the H5N1 virus could mutate into a form that passes easily from person to person, which could cause a pandemic.

 

Mr. Bloom says there is a significant need for outside contributions for countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia that could be hard hit. A donors¹²' conference is set for November 7 to 9 at WHO headquarters in Geneva to assess the specific needs of countries.

 

Douglas Bakshian for VOA news, Manila.

 

注释：

massive [5mAsiv] adj. 重大的

recession [ri5seFEn] n. 工商业之衰退，不景气

projection¹ [prE5dVekFEn] n. 预测

shrink [FriNk] v. 收缩，缩短

slowdown [slEudaun] n. 降低速度，减速

1 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

2 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

3 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

6 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

7 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

8 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

9 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

10 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

11 poultry   

n.家禽，禽肉

参考例句：

• There is not much poultry in the shops. 商店里禽肉不太多。
• What do you feed the poultry on? 你们用什么饲料喂养家禽?

12 donors   

n.捐赠者( donor的名词复数 )；献血者；捐血者；器官捐献者

参考例句：

• Please email us to be removed from our active list of blood donors. 假如你想把自己的名字从献血联系人名单中删去，请给我们发电子邮件。
• About half this amount comes from individual donors and bequests. 这笔钱大约有一半来自个人捐赠及遗赠。 来自《简明英汉词典》