2006年VOA标准英语-New Thai Government Banks on Political Stabilit

By Ron Corben
Bangkok
25 October 2006

Thailand's military-installed government has made political stability a priority for the next year rather than the pursuit of faster economic growth. Economists² warn any slide into political conflict will damage investor³ and consumer confidence - and ultimately economic growth.

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In a street market in Bangkok's financial and business district, merchants hope for better times after the uncertainties⁴ of Thai politics over the past year.

Business has slowed since the military ousted⁵ Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from power last month. The new prime minister, General Surayud Chulanont, was appointed earlier this month and has promised to stress local economic growth

Don, a seller of music compact disks, says he is willing to give Mr. Surayud time to put his policies in place. Don says the prime minister is new to the post so he needs time to improve the economic conditions. And, he adds, the economy is not expected to deteriorate⁶.

A Thai trader looks back to share prices on an electronic screen during morning stock trading in Bangkok (File photo)

Although consumer spending and tourism have slumped⁷ since the coup⁸, economists and business leaders say they expect little long-term damage.

Bob Broadfoot, from the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy in Hong Kong, says investors⁹ are still positive on the economic outlook.

"They've taken it in stride and given what happened to date I don't think there are going to be too many repercussions," he said. "But they are watching now."

The key was in the smooth transition of power after the bloodless coup on September 19.

Even before the coup, the economy had been healthy, despite months of political uncertainty¹⁰ and protests against Mr. Thaksin this year. Gross domestic product is expected to grow more than five percent this year.

Broadfoot says the economic resilience highlights the fact the coup was largely tied to politics, not the economy.

"Thailand's economic track record has been quite impressive. That is not the issue behind the fall of Thaksin. That's what makes this coup so unique - it was strictly¹¹ politics," said Broadfoot. "It had very, very little to do with the state of the economy. Mr. Thaksin did a relatively¹² good job."

But Mr. Thaksin, say political scientists, had divided the country because he used populist policies to play low-income groups against the urban middle-class and elites¹³.

Economists and political analysts¹⁴ say Mr. Surayud's main task will be to heal political rifts¹⁵.

Two key appointments may help do that. Business leaders have indicated they approve of the new finance minister, Pridiyathorn Divakul, who is the former central bank governor, and the new commerce secretary, Krirk-krai Jirapaet, a respected former senior servant in the ministry¹⁶.

"The priority is to bring in unity¹⁷ of the people because there is a lot of conflict among various classes, among regions and leave the economy in the hands of Khun [Mr.] Pridiyathorn [the finance minister]," said Arporn Chewakrengkai, chief economist¹ with the Thai government pension fund.

There were some immediate¹⁸ casualties from the coup. Consumer spending fell, with auto¹⁹ sales in particular dropping 10 percent in September. And hotels reported cancellations as news spread of tanks on the streets of the capital. But both sectors²⁰ are expected to recover.

Thailand is still under martial²¹ law although the tanks returned to barracks within two weeks of the coup. But should the military tighten²² control over the public or delay elections more than a year, there could be damage to the economy.

After the last coup in February 1991, there was little immediate economic reaction.

But a year later, when it became clear the armed forces wanted to maintain control, there were protests that the military brutally²³ crushed. The economy weakened sharply and business confidence took months to repair.

Shamika Sirimanne, a United Nations economist in Thailand, says political stability will be key to maintaining economic growth.

"The worse case scenario²⁴ is built on the assumption that there's no stability politically and that would create a huge drop in investor and consumer confidence," said Sirimanne. "If that happens that's going to take a great dip in growth numbers."

The U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia- Pacific warned that any long-term political trouble could cause investors to pull money out of Thailand. In the worst-case scenario, the report said, growth could fall to three percent, inflation could jump to 10 percent and the Thai baht might slide 20 percent against the dollar.

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

4 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

5 ousted   

驱逐( oust的过去式和过去分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• He was ousted as chairman. 他的主席职务被革除了。
• He may be ousted by a military takeover. 他可能在一场军事接管中被赶下台。

6 deteriorate   

v.变坏；恶化；退化

参考例句：

• Do you think relations between China and Japan will continue to deteriorate?你认为中日关系会继续恶化吗？
• He held that this would only cause the situation to deteriorate further.他认为，这只会使局势更加恶化。

7 slumped   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的过去式和过去分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Sales have slumped this year. 今年销售量锐减。
• The driver was slumped exhausted over the wheel. 司机伏在方向盘上，疲惫得睡着了。

8 coup   

n.政变；突然而成功的行动

参考例句：

• The monarch was ousted by a military coup.那君主被军事政变者废黜了。
• That government was overthrown in a military coup three years ago.那个政府在3年前的军事政变中被推翻。

9 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

10 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

11 strictly   

adv.严厉地，严格地；严密地

参考例句：

• His doctor is dieting him strictly.他的医生严格规定他的饮食。
• The guests were seated strictly in order of precedence.客人严格按照地位高低就座。

12 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

13 elites   

精华( elite的名词复数 )； 精锐； 上层集团； （统称）掌权人物

参考例句：

• The elites are by their nature a factor contributing to underdevelopment. 这些上层人物天生是助长欠发达的因素。
• Elites always detest gifted and nimble outsiders. 社会名流对天赋聪明、多才多艺的局外人一向嫌恶。

14 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

15 rifts   

n.裂缝( rift的名词复数 )；裂隙；分裂；不和

参考例句：

• After that, through the rifts in the inky clouds sparkled redder and yet more luminous particles. 然后在几条墨蓝色云霞的隙缝里闪出几个更红更亮的小片。 来自汉英文学 - 现代散文
• The Destinies mend rifts in time as man etches fate. 当人类想要再次亵渎命运的时候，命运及时修正了这些裂痕。 来自互联网

16 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

17 unity   

n.团结，联合，统一；和睦，协调

参考例句：

• When we speak of unity,we do not mean unprincipled peace.所谓团结，并非一团和气。
• We must strengthen our unity in the face of powerful enemies.大敌当前，我们必须加强团结。

18 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

19 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

20 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

21 martial   

adj.战争的，军事的，尚武的，威武的

参考例句：

• The sound of martial music is always inspiring.军乐声总是鼓舞人心的。
• The officer was convicted of desertion at a court martial.这名军官在军事法庭上被判犯了擅离职守罪。

22 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

23 brutally   

adv.残忍地，野蛮地，冷酷无情地

参考例句：

• The uprising was brutally put down.起义被残酷地镇压下去了。
• A pro-democracy uprising was brutally suppressed.一场争取民主的起义被残酷镇压了。

24 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。