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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
By Matt Steinglass
Hanoi
08 November 2006
As Vietnam prepares to host the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit later this month, it can boast one of the world's fastest growing economies and imminent1 membership in the World Trade Organization. Ten years after communist Vietnam's first wave of capitalist euphoria ground to a halt, the country is booming again. But some analysts2 warn that certain weaknesses could once again bring growth to a halt.
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When Vietnam's new prime minister addressed the country's National Assembly in October, he had a lot to be proud of.
Nguyen Tan Dung
Nguyen Tan Dung says Vietnam has achieved its yearly targets in every sector3 and he forecast growth for the next year at more than eight percent.
Mr. Dung is not the only one to be optimistic.
Peter Ryder is CEO of Indochina Capital, which manages nearly $600 million in Vietnamese equities4 and real estate. He says foreign investors6 could not be more bullish on Vietnam.
"There's obviously enormous amounts of offshore7 interest. Domestic investment's way up. … No matter how you look at the economy, it's quite a rosy8 picture," he said.
Foreign direct investment exceeded $5 billion in the first nine months of this year and Vietnam's exports doubled between 2002 and 2005, to more than $32 billion.
Foreign companies are flocking to the country, with computer and office equipment manufacturers Intel and Canon among those to build factories here.
But some are cautioning Vietnam's government against too much exuberance9.
Workers prepare a flower display in preparation for upcoming APEC summit in Hanoi
This is not the first time Vietnam has seen a wave of investor5 enthusiasm. Indochina Capital's Ryder was here in the mid-1990s, when it became clear investor expectations were unsustainable.
"…It was very quickly being touted10 as the next Asian Dragon," he said. "There was this very blank canvas with enormous human resource, natural resource, et cetera potential - that had utterly11 no infrastructure12. Either physical or soft, as in banking13 systems, legal systems, finance systems."
As foreign investors realized how difficult it was to do business in Vietnam, many pulled out.
Pete Peterson, a former U.S. Air Force pilot who spent nine years as a prisoner of war in Hanoi, became America's first ambassador to Vietnam after relations were normalized in 1995.
He says Vietnam has made tremendous progress in structural14 reform, business laws and banking infrastructure are now far more sophisticated than a decade ago but problems remain.
"There is a huge deficit15 in transportation infrastructure. The rail structure is just pathetic," he said.
Many major exporters agree. In September, foreign companies with Vietnamese operations, including Nike and The Gap, warned the government they were running out of port capacity.
Exporters say by next year they could be experiencing significant delays, a critical problem in industries like garments and seafood16.
Infrastructure improvements have been slowed by corruption17. A huge scandal in Vietnam's Ministry18 of Transportation this year brought highway construction in the north to a virtual halt.
Vietnam's economy also remains19 dominated by huge state-owned firms.
Nguyen Hoang Luu, vice20 chairman of the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, says the government is failing to promote small private businesses that are the true engines of growth.
Luu says government officials favor big state firms with credit and land, and harass21 small businesses with demands for bribes22.
Scott Cheshier is an economist23 at the United Nations Development Program in Hanoi. He says problems occur when government companies, like Vietnam Post and Telegraph, or VNPT, both regulate and do business in the same industry.
"For instance, VNPT set regulations for the telecom sector and operated within those regulations it set," he said. "So there were conflicts of interest."
But Cheshier says the government is now moving to privatize state-owned firms as part of reforms mandated24 by Vietnam's entry into the World Trade Organization on November 7.
The country has had to stop subsidizing its textile industry, and its domestic gasoline prices. It is also having let even more foreign firms into Vietnamese markets.
Bui Hong Ky, 35, works for a Vietnamese express mail company, and is nervous about what new competition will bring.
"In the future when regulations change, a lot of forwarders, a lot of airlines or shipping25 lines, can join Vietnam," he said. "And at that time private companies can't bear with the difficulties."
But others are looking forward to the changes. Tran Duc Nghia is a manager at software company FPT, which has partnership26 agreements with Microsoft.
"When Vietnam accedes27 to the WTO, we think that we have more chance in order to work.," he said.
At the new Vincom Towers mall in Hanoi, signs of Vietnam's growing wealth are everywhere, from Benetton and Prada franchises28 to Vietnam's first full-fledged multiplex movie theater.
Phuong Dung, 23, a student at Hanoi's Foreign Trade University, is out shopping. Her optimism is typical of Vietnam's urban youth.
Phuong Dung says she's happy that her job opportunities are so much better than in her parents' generation. And she thinks Vietnam is only going to keep getting richer.
1 imminent | |
adj.即将发生的,临近的,逼近的 | |
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2 analysts | |
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 ) | |
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3 sector | |
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形 | |
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4 equities | |
普通股,股票 | |
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5 investor | |
n.投资者,投资人 | |
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6 investors | |
n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 ) | |
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7 offshore | |
adj.海面的,吹向海面的;adv.向海面 | |
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8 rosy | |
adj.美好的,乐观的,玫瑰色的 | |
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9 exuberance | |
n.丰富;繁荣 | |
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10 touted | |
v.兜售( tout的过去式和过去分词 );招揽;侦查;探听赛马情报 | |
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11 utterly | |
adv.完全地,绝对地 | |
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12 infrastructure | |
n.下部构造,下部组织,基础结构,基础设施 | |
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13 banking | |
n.银行业,银行学,金融业 | |
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14 structural | |
adj.构造的,组织的,建筑(用)的 | |
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15 deficit | |
n.亏空,亏损;赤字,逆差 | |
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16 seafood | |
n.海产食品,海味,海鲜 | |
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17 corruption | |
n.腐败,堕落,贪污 | |
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18 ministry | |
n.(政府的)部;牧师 | |
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19 remains | |
n.剩余物,残留物;遗体,遗迹 | |
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20 vice | |
n.坏事;恶习;[pl.]台钳,老虎钳;adj.副的 | |
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21 harass | |
vt.使烦恼,折磨,骚扰 | |
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22 bribes | |
n.贿赂( bribe的名词复数 );向(某人)行贿,贿赂v.贿赂( bribe的第三人称单数 );向(某人)行贿,贿赂 | |
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23 economist | |
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人 | |
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24 mandated | |
adj. 委托统治的 | |
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25 shipping | |
n.船运(发货,运输,乘船) | |
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26 partnership | |
n.合作关系,伙伴关系 | |
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27 accedes | |
v.(正式)加入( accede的第三人称单数 );答应;(通过财产的添附而)增加;开始任职 | |
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28 franchises | |
n.(尤指选举议员的)选举权( franchise的名词复数 );参政权;获特许权的商业机构(或服务);(公司授予的)特许经销权v.给…以特许权,出售特许权( franchise的第三人称单数 ) | |
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