2006年VOA标准英语-Russia's Gazprom Threatens Belarus with Huge Ga

By Andre de Nesnera
Washington
29 December 2006

Russia's state-controlled gas monopoly Gazprom says it will dramatically increase natural gas prices for Belarus. In this report from Washington, VOA Senior Correspondent André de Nesnera discusses the ramifications¹ of this move for the two countries.

 
Belarusian worker at gas compressor station of Yamal-Europe pipeline² near Nesvizh, some 130 km southwest of Minsk, 27 Dec 2006
Gazprom wanted initially³ to quadruple natural gas prices for Belarus beginning January 1. Gazprom was seeking $200 per 1,000 cubic meters - but later said it would consider cutting that amount in half in exchange for a 50 percent share in a pipeline that carries Russian gas through Belarus to parts of Europe. Talks between Russia and Belarus have failed to resolve the issue, prompting Gazprom to threaten Belarus with a gas cut-off at the start of the new year.

Experts say this dispute highlights an increasing chill in relations between Moscow and Minsk which are joined in a loose federation⁴. Russia is one of the last allies of Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko, considered by many western leaders as the last dictator in Europe.

 
Alexander Lukashenko
Robert Legvold, a Russia expert at Columbia University, says this latest argument indicates that the Russian leadership is not so committed to Mr. Lukashenko.

"Which, from my perspective, means that the Putin government is prepared to signal to Lukashenko that they have leverage⁵ in this relationship and that their interests, both economic and political, need to be respected," he said. "I don't think it means that they are about to begin forcing Lukashenko to transform the situation politically within Belarus, but I think it's a clear signal that they have their own separate interests and they are not about to simply give him large gifts because they want to be close."

Some analysts⁶ say Moscow is now more than ever willing to use its vast oil and gas resources as a foreign policy tool.

Marshall Goldman, a Russia expert with Harvard University, says that trend started several years ago.

"Suddenly in 1999, oil prices begin to rise, oil production begins to go up, the country begins to develop a trade surplus, people want its energy, the energy situation tightens⁷ because of new entrants such as China and India beginning to become big demanders of energy," he said. "And so Russia now finds itself with a very valuable commodity that brings it money, that brings it power, that brings it prestige, that brings it leverage that it didn't have before. And so now it's in a position to be very assertive⁸."

At the beginning of this year, Russia made good on a threat to cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine in another dispute with Gazprom over prices - a quarrel that was eventually resolved. That move briefly⁹ disrupted deliveries to Europe and brought about international condemnation¹⁰.

But Robert Legvold, from Columbia University, says he doesn't see Russia using its oil to exert pressure on Europe.

"At the macro [economic] level Europe is now probably 30 to 35 percent dependent on Russian gas for their supply," he said. "But Russia is dependent on Europe for 80 percent of its export market in gas. So on the one side, you've got supply dependency on the part of the Europeans - particularly the central Europeans - where their dependency on Russian gas rises to 75, 80 percent. And on the other hand, you've got market dependency on the part of the Russians. They have no way to easily shift this gas to any of their other potential buyers, such as the Asians - there are no pipelines¹¹ to take it to Asia at this point."

Legvold says he sees no reason why Russia would want - from a political point of view - to cut off gas to Europe and discredit¹² itself as a reliable supplier in the international market. He says that would send a very negative message especially to the potentially lucrative¹³ energy markets of China and India - markets that Russia covets¹⁴.

1 ramifications   

n.结果，后果( ramification的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• These changes are bound to have widespread social ramifications. 这些变化注定会造成许多难以预料的社会后果。
• What are the ramifications of our decision to join the union? 我们决定加入工会会引起哪些后果呢？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

3 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

4 federation   

n.同盟，联邦，联合，联盟，联合会

参考例句：

• It is a federation of 10 regional unions.它是由十个地方工会结合成的联合会。
• Mr.Putin was inaugurated as the President of the Russian Federation.普京正式就任俄罗斯联邦总统。

5 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

6 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

7 tightens   

收紧( tighten的第三人称单数 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• One set of provisions tightens emission standards. 一套使排放标准更加严格的规定。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Requires no special tools or fittings; hand tightens to relief valve outlet. 不需要专用工具或管件；用手将其紧固到安全阀上即可。

8 assertive   

adj.果断的，自信的，有冲劲的

参考例句：

• She always speaks an assertive tone.她总是以果断的语气说话。
• China appears to have become more assertive in the waters off its coastline over recent years.在近些年，中国显示出对远方海洋的自信。

9 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。

10 condemnation   

n.谴责; 定罪

参考例句：

• There was widespread condemnation of the invasion. 那次侵略遭到了人们普遍的谴责。
• The jury's condemnation was a shock to the suspect. 陪审团宣告有罪使嫌疑犯大为震惊。

11 pipelines   

管道( pipeline的名词复数 )； 输油管道； 在考虑（或规划、准备） 中； 在酿中

参考例句：

• The oil is carried to the oil refinery by pipelines. 石油通过输油管输送到炼油厂。
• The oil carried in pipelines. 石油用管道输送。

12 discredit   

vt.使不可置信；n.丧失信义；不信，怀疑

参考例句：

• Their behaviour has bought discredit on English football.他们的行为败坏了英国足球运动的声誉。
• They no longer try to discredit the technology itself.他们不再试图怀疑这种技术本身。

13 lucrative   

adj.赚钱的，可获利的

参考例句：

• He decided to turn his hobby into a lucrative sideline.他决定把自己的爱好变成赚钱的副业。
• It was not a lucrative profession.那是一个没有多少油水的职业。

14 covets   

v.贪求，觊觎( covet的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• It is the kind of TV news coverage every president covets. 所有总统都垂涎这类电视新闻报导。 来自互联网
• She covets her sister's house. 她对她姐姐的房子垂涎三尺。 来自互联网