2006年VOA标准英语-Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia

By Meredith Buel
Washington
28 February 2006

A leading specialist on ethnic¹ minorities in the Russian Federation² says within the next several decades Russia will become a country with a Muslim majority. Paul Goble, a university professor and senior research associate currently based in Estonia, spoke³ Tuesday at the Washington headquarters of Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty.

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For 25 years Paul Goble worked for the U.S. government as an expert on minorities in the former Soviet⁴ Union.

He has been closely tracking what he describes as a huge demographic shift in Russia, a shift he says will have a major impact on the nation's relations with western countries.

"Within most of our lifetimes the Russian Federation, assuming it stays within current borders, will be a Muslim country," he said. "That is it will have a Muslim majority and even before that the growing number of people of Muslim background in Russia will have a profound impact on Russian foreign policy. The assumption in Western Europe or the United States that Moscow is part of the European concert of powers is no longer valid⁵."

Goble, currently the Vice⁶ Dean of Social Sciences and Humanities at Concordia-Audentes University in Tallinn, Estonia, says when the Soviet Union collapsed⁷, most western countries looked at influencing Russia from a European perspective.

He says, however, Muslim countries viewed the opportunity for migration⁸ and the spread of Islam from the Caucuses⁹ or the newly created states in Central Asia.

"The Muslim growth rate, since 1989, is between 40 and 50 percent, depending on ethnic groups," he said. "Most of that is in the Caucuses or from immigration from Central Asia or Azerbaijan."
 

Man prays in a Moscow mosque¹⁰
(2005 file photo)   
  
Goble says in 1991 there were about 300 mosques¹¹ in Russia. Today there are at least 8,000. He says about half of those were built with money donated from abroad, much of it from Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Goble says the number of Russians going on the Hajj, or pilgrimage to Mecca each year, has jumped from 40 in 1991 to 13,500 last year.

He says there were no Islamic religious schools in Russia 15 years ago. Today, Goble says, there are between 50 and 60 teaching as many as 50,000 students.

He says the growing influence of Islam in Russia has led to mounting discrimination.

"At the popular level, prejudice against Muslims is way up," he said. "It is perceived that prejudice against Muslims is acceptable, it is something you won't get in big trouble for."

Goble says if the Russian government supports a hostile policy toward Islam and the continued suppression of Islamic militants¹² in the troubled republic of Chechnya, the Muslims he predicts could come to power in Moscow will be, as he puts it, "anti-western, radical¹³ and dangerous."

Goble says, however, if there is an open dialog with moderate Muslims and an isolation¹⁴ of the small percentage of Islamic radicals¹⁵, a non-threatening government could emerge.

In any case, Goble quotes one Russian commentator¹⁶ in Moscow as predicting that within the next several decades there will be a mosque on Red Square.

1 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

2 federation   

n.同盟，联邦，联合，联盟，联合会

参考例句：

• It is a federation of 10 regional unions.它是由十个地方工会结合成的联合会。
• Mr.Putin was inaugurated as the President of the Russian Federation.普京正式就任俄罗斯联邦总统。

3 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

4 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

5 valid   

adj.有确实根据的；有效的；正当的，合法的

参考例句：

• His claim to own the house is valid.他主张对此屋的所有权有效。
• Do you have valid reasons for your absence?你的缺席有正当理由吗？

6 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

7 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

8 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

9 caucuses   

n.（政党决定政策或推举竞选人的）核心成员( caucus的名词复数 )；决策干部；决策委员会；秘密会议

参考例句：

• Republican caucuses will happen in about 410 towns across Maine. 共和党团会议选举将在缅因州的约410个城镇进行。 来自互联网

10 mosque   

n.清真寺

参考例句：

• The mosque is a activity site and culture center of Muslim religion.清真寺为穆斯林宗教活动场所和文化中心。
• Some years ago the clock in the tower of the mosque got out of order.几年前，清真寺钟楼里的大钟失灵了。

11 mosques   

清真寺； 伊斯兰教寺院，清真寺； 清真寺，伊斯兰教寺院( mosque的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Why make us believe that this tunnel runs underneath the mosques? 为什么要让我们相信这条隧洞是在清真寺下？
• The city's three biggest mosques, long fallen into disrepair, have been renovated. 城里最大的三座清真寺，过去年久失修，现在已经修复。

12 militants   

激进分子，好斗分子( militant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The militants have been sporadically fighting the government for years. 几年来，反叛分子一直对政府实施零星的战斗。
• Despite the onslaught, Palestinian militants managed to fire off rockets. 尽管如此，巴勒斯坦的激进分子仍然发射导弹。

13 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

14 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

15 radicals   

n.激进分子( radical的名词复数 )；根基；基本原理；[数学]根数

参考例句：

• Some militant leaders want to merge with white radicals. 一些好斗的领导人要和白人中的激进派联合。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The worry is that the radicals will grow more intransigent. 现在人们担忧激进分子会变得更加不妥协。 来自辞典例句

16 commentator   

n.注释者，解说者；实况广播评论员

参考例句：

• He is a good commentator because he can get across the game.他能简单地解说这场比赛，是个好的解说者。
• The commentator made a big mistake during the live broadcast.在直播节目中评论员犯了个大错误。