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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
By Delia Robertson
Johannesburg
08 March 2006
Population growth in most of Africa is expected to rise sharply over the next 50 years. But, in southern Africa, AIDS is cutting a deadly swath through two major segments of the population - the most productive group aged1 between 19 and 45, and society's youngest - those under five years of age.
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"Yes - I like to play soccer but I don't have a chance," says 15-year-old Bongani, who no longer has a chance to play soccer because he must now take care of his two younger siblings2, aged 11 and 9.
Their mother, a single parent, died just months ago from complications of AIDS. Instead of joining his friends in their daily game of after-school street soccer, now Bongani must oversee3 his siblings' homework, prepare an evening meal, and clean the house. His schoolwork receives attention only after his charges are asleep.
AIDS orphan4 Kelebogile Moloi attends prayer service on World AIDS Day in Soweto, South Africa, Dec. 1, 2005
Bongani is one of 10 million children orphaned5 by AIDS in southern Africa, and among millions forced to take on the role of parent to younger siblings. Others, perhaps more fortunate, now live under the care of a grandparent - usually a grandmother. But Professor Clifford Odimgegwu of the University of the Witwatersrand, says the senior generation is consequently being denied the natural fruits of a long life.
"A pattern that is emerging, that grandparents now are taking care of the orphans6, their orphans, grandsons and daughters who are left by their mothers and fathers. Now instead of the reverse, the normal African system whereby children take care of grandparents, grandparents are now the people who are taking care of orphans," he said.
Odimegwu, a social demographer7 who coordinates8 the university's demography9 and population studies unit, told VOA that, in southern Africa, the pandemic has already upset what he calls the population pyramid. It is a pyramid, he says, based on an emerging generation of infants and toddlers, topped by a pre-adult generation - a productive generation - and senior citizens.
Odimegwu says AIDS is decimating two important layers in the pyramid, those under five years old who, as the emerging generation, should be the long-term future of the region's population. And, 19 to 45-year-olds, those who must sustain and build economies for the future. He says alarm bells should be ringing throughout the governments of the region.
"The implication of this really is that the future of this region, if proper care is not taken, the future of this region is in jeopardy," he said.
By 2010, in some countries, such as South Africa and Botswana, most deaths of children under five will be the result of AIDS. In the same period, life expectancy10 at birth will drop by at least 39 years. Odimegwu says the impact of the disease, whether caused by illness, death or bereavement11, affects every sector12 of societies and economies in the region.
Even without AIDS, most of the regions' health systems were functioning far below the World Health Organization recommended ratio between patient and health professional. Instead of one doctor per 5,000 people, most countries in the region have less than one doctor per 20,000. And most southern African countries have just 10 percent of the nurses per patient that developed nations do.
Now, some experts say, the region's health systems are already buckling13 under the impact of the epidemic14. And Soraya Elloker, an official with the People's Health Movement, says that not only are health workers ill, dying and bereaved15 but that the disease has added to the demands on their time.
"They have also indicated there [are] a lot of additional services they are providing . . . The prevention of mother to child transmission program is added. HIV services is added. We have never had those before. They see more sick children, more children with pneumonia16, with diarrhea," she said. "They are also finding that a lot of children are not being cared for by their biological parents because of the epidemic. There are a lot of social problems."
Elloker tells VOA the impact on health workers affects every aspect of their work and that doctors and nurses worry that they are often not able to maintain high standards, such as spending time obtaining detailed17 patient histories. Also, she says, they are forced to make ethical18 decisions, such as who to treat first, in highly pressured, fraught19 working environments.
Education systems are also already reeling under the impact of AIDS. Carol Coombe, an independent education specialist who often advises regional governments, says that, for 20 years, educators and government officials assumed that teachers would impart knowledge about the disease to students and teach them life-skills to avoid becoming infected.
But Coombe says the problem for education systems is much more complex. She says regional governments need to know how to sustain such systems while tens of thousands of teachers die and the already huge number of orphans becomes bigger. She says they also need to learn how to respond to the high levels of trauma20 being experienced by both teachers and learners.
Beyond that, says Coombe, governments need to know how to manage these issues.
"In no country, including South Africa, could we say that we had a management structure and sufficient skills to meet the challenge of HIV/AIDS - we simply we could not do it," she continued. "So although I think at the moment we know more or less what needs to be done . . . the question remains21, are we able to do it. And, for some some of us the answer is, certainly as far as governments are concerned, and some of their closest partners, no."
The challenges faced by the health and education sectors22 in southern Africa are replicated23 throughout these societies, from public services, to mining, to banking24, to agriculture.
In his recent book, Buckling, researcher Hein Marais likens the impact of AIDS on South Africa's population to that of the plague in 14th century Europe. Marais predicts that, like the plague, the consequences of AIDS will be both widespread and far-reaching, causing collapse25 in some sectors of society, and regeneration in others.
1 aged | |
adj.年老的,陈年的 | |
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2 siblings | |
n.兄弟,姐妹( sibling的名词复数 ) | |
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3 oversee | |
vt.监督,管理 | |
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4 orphan | |
n.孤儿;adj.无父母的 | |
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5 orphaned | |
[计][修]孤立 | |
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6 orphans | |
孤儿( orphan的名词复数 ) | |
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7 demographer | |
n.人口统计学家 | |
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8 coordinates | |
n.相配之衣物;坐标( coordinate的名词复数 );(颜色协调的)配套服装;[复数]女套服;同等重要的人(或物)v.使协调,使调和( coordinate的第三人称单数 );协调;协同;成为同等 | |
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9 demography | |
n.人口统计,人口学 | |
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10 expectancy | |
n.期望,预期,(根据概率统计求得)预期数额 | |
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11 bereavement | |
n.亲人丧亡,丧失亲人,丧亲之痛 | |
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12 sector | |
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形 | |
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13 buckling | |
扣住 | |
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14 epidemic | |
n.流行病;盛行;adj.流行性的,流传极广的 | |
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15 bereaved | |
adj.刚刚丧失亲人的v.使失去(希望、生命等)( bereave的过去式和过去分词);(尤指死亡)使丧失(亲人、朋友等);使孤寂;抢走(财物) | |
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16 pneumonia | |
n.肺炎 | |
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17 detailed | |
adj.详细的,详尽的,极注意细节的,完全的 | |
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18 ethical | |
adj.伦理的,道德的,合乎道德的 | |
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19 fraught | |
adj.充满…的,伴有(危险等)的;忧虑的 | |
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20 trauma | |
n.外伤,精神创伤 | |
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21 remains | |
n.剩余物,残留物;遗体,遗迹 | |
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22 sectors | |
n.部门( sector的名词复数 );领域;防御地区;扇形 | |
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23 replicated | |
复制( replicate的过去式和过去分词 ); 重复; 再造; 再生 | |
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24 banking | |
n.银行业,银行学,金融业 | |
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25 collapse | |
vi.累倒;昏倒;倒塌;塌陷 | |
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