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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
By Bill Rodgers
Washington
15 March 2006
The latest sectarian violence in Iraq has raised questions about the future of the U.S. mission to establish a secure and democratic country, three years after U.S. troops invaded Iraq to overthrow1 dictator Saddam Hussein. As part of our series marking the third anniversary of the invasion, VOA's Bill Rodgers reports on the challenges ahead for the United States and Iraq.
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It was called "Shock and Awe," the overwhelming force used in the March 2003 invasion of Iraq that enabled U.S. troops to quickly achieve their objectives. The regime of Saddam Hussein easily collapsed2 and the former dictator was captured some months later, hiding ignominiously3 in a hole in the ground.
Other successes followed when Iraqis went to the polls in three separate elections despite terrorist threats. Iraqis voted in the first election in January 2005 to elect a transitional assembly. They went to the polls again last October to approve a constitution, and in December they voted for a parliament. These last two elections attracted large numbers of Sunni Arabs who had boycotted4 the January 2005 vote.
An Iraqi holds up his ink-stained finger showing he voted in election
Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute says the significance of these elections should not be minimized.
"At this point, a new political system is taking root, we've had three successive polls, elections, and Iraqis, the vast majority of them, are looking forward to getting on with their lives," he said.
But insurgent5 violence threatens this progress, with suicide bombings and other attacks taking a heavy toll6 on Iraqi civilians7. Between 28,000 to 32,000 Iraqi civilians have been killed in the conflict over the past three years, according to the Iraq Index compiled by the Brookings Institution in Washington.
Iraqi soldiers patrol Baghdad
To curb8 the violence, the U.S. strategy is to train Iraq's military and police, a force now numbering some 230,000, to assume a greater role in maintaining security. The Pentagon says the training is going well, and that the Iraqi army is increasingly capable of taking on the insurgents9.
But analyst10 Tamara Wittes of the Brookings Institution says training alone will not be enough.
"For an Iraqi army to be effective at the function of defending the Iraqi people, of fighting a counterinsurgency, it is not enough if you have trained men with weapons on the ground, they have to have the whole infrastructure12 of government behind them," she said. "They have to have effective decision-making, they have to have reliable budgets to pay salaries and purchase equipment and get it to where it needs to be, and they have to have an effective chain of command that's not tainted13 by political squabbling or corruption14. So if the government institutions aren't working, the army can't work either."
Forming a permanent, inclusive government will be key for Iraq's future. Last December's vote was largely along sectarian lines, and while Shiite and Kurdish coalitions15 won the most seats in the 275-member parliament, they do not hold an absolute majority needed to govern. The United States, through its ambassador in Iraq, has been pressing for the creation of a national unity16 government that would include Sunni representatives.
But James Jeffrey, the State Department's special Iraq coordinator17, tells VOA the effort has encountered resistance.
"People who have power don't want to give it up," he said. "The Shia did very well in both elections, but particularly in the first of them which is why they have so many positions in the current government. The Sunni Arabs did very well for hundreds of years dominating a country whose population is largely not Sunni Arab. But all of these folks have to learn they are going to have to share power with other people in something equal to their proportion of power in the population."
Iraqis gather at ruins of Shrine18 in Samarra
However, attempts at unity were undermined by the February 22 bombing of the sacred Shiite mosque19 in Samarra, which unleashed20 the worst sectarian violence in Iraq since the downfall of Saddam Hussein. Retaliatory21 attacks were carried out against Sunni mosques22 while bodies of Shiite and Sunni civilians piled up at morgues, many of them killed execution style.
Militias23, most drawn24 up on ethnic25 or religious lines or even under seeming official cover, are believed responsible for some of the recent violence, especially the executions of civilians. Experts say the militias have emerged because U.S. troops and Iraq's security forces have been unable to impose their authority on the whole country.
Tamara Wittes warns they pose a danger for Iraq's future.
"While the issue of sectarian tension had not been fueling the insurgency11 up until recently, it may happen now that local communities which had been keeping some distance from the insurgency are being forced into their arms, because they feel threatened by the militias representing other communities," she said. "That is very unfortunate. It reminds me, in some ways, of the situation in the former Yugoslavia in the early 90's where communities did not support the extreme, nationalist claims of the militias felt compelled to embrace them and enjoy their protection, because there was no larger authority that could provide them with safety and security."
James Jeffrey of the State Department says the outbreak of sectarian violence is of grave concern, but doubts the situation in Iraq will deteriorate26 into civil war. He notes some of the violence has diminished and Iraqi security forces have been effective in curbing27 some of the attacks. However, he warns if there is widespread sectarian violence, it could affect any U.S troop withdrawal28 plans.
"What we have said, if the conditions permit, and I underline that, there could well be further withdrawals29 in the course of this year," he noted30. "But there's been no decision taken, there's no level of concreteness to possible plans or possible force levels, and again everything is dependent upon the conditions on the ground."
One of those conditions will be quelling31 the insurgency, made up mainly of disaffected32 Sunnis but also of foreign fighters led by terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. This task may be long and arduous33 as the United States learned in Vietnam.
And some observers, such as Marina Ottoway of the Carnegie Endowment, have become pessimistic overall about the U.S. mission in Iraq.
"If we look at what has been happening, there does not seem to be much progress in forming a government and sectarian violence is increasing in the country, so that suggests we are not following a winning strategy," she said.
The Bush administration clearly thinks otherwise, and remains34 determined35 to give the Iraqi government time to strengthen all of its institutions, including its security forces, to ensure stability.
1 overthrow | |
v.推翻,打倒,颠覆;n.推翻,瓦解,颠覆 | |
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2 collapsed | |
adj.倒塌的 | |
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3 ignominiously | |
adv.耻辱地,屈辱地,丢脸地 | |
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4 boycotted | |
抵制,拒绝参加( boycott的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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5 insurgent | |
adj.叛乱的,起事的;n.叛乱分子 | |
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6 toll | |
n.过路(桥)费;损失,伤亡人数;v.敲(钟) | |
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7 civilians | |
平民,百姓( civilian的名词复数 ); 老百姓 | |
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8 curb | |
n.场外证券市场,场外交易;vt.制止,抑制 | |
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9 insurgents | |
n.起义,暴动,造反( insurgent的名词复数 ) | |
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10 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
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11 insurgency | |
n.起义;暴动;叛变 | |
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12 infrastructure | |
n.下部构造,下部组织,基础结构,基础设施 | |
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13 tainted | |
adj.腐坏的;污染的;沾污的;感染的v.使变质( taint的过去式和过去分词 );使污染;败坏;被污染,腐坏,败坏 | |
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14 corruption | |
n.腐败,堕落,贪污 | |
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15 coalitions | |
结合体,同盟( coalition的名词复数 ); (两党或多党)联合政府 | |
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16 unity | |
n.团结,联合,统一;和睦,协调 | |
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17 coordinator | |
n.协调人 | |
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18 shrine | |
n.圣地,神龛,庙;v.将...置于神龛内,把...奉为神圣 | |
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19 mosque | |
n.清真寺 | |
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20 unleashed | |
v.把(感情、力量等)释放出来,发泄( unleash的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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21 retaliatory | |
adj.报复的 | |
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22 mosques | |
清真寺; 伊斯兰教寺院,清真寺; 清真寺,伊斯兰教寺院( mosque的名词复数 ) | |
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23 militias | |
n.民兵组织,民兵( militia的名词复数 ) | |
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24 drawn | |
v.拖,拉,拔出;adj.憔悴的,紧张的 | |
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25 ethnic | |
adj.人种的,种族的,异教徒的 | |
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26 deteriorate | |
v.变坏;恶化;退化 | |
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27 curbing | |
n.边石,边石的材料v.限制,克制,抑制( curb的现在分词 ) | |
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28 withdrawal | |
n.取回,提款;撤退,撤军;收回,撤销 | |
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29 withdrawals | |
n.收回,取回,撤回( withdrawal的名词复数 );撤退,撤走;收回[取回,撤回,撤退,撤走]的实例;推出(组织),提走(存款),戒除毒瘾,对说过的话收回,孤僻 | |
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30 noted | |
adj.著名的,知名的 | |
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31 quelling | |
v.(用武力)制止,结束,镇压( quell的现在分词 ) | |
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32 disaffected | |
adj.(政治上)不满的,叛离的 | |
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33 arduous | |
adj.艰苦的,费力的,陡峭的 | |
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34 remains | |
n.剩余物,残留物;遗体,遗迹 | |
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35 determined | |
adj.坚定的;有决心的 | |
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