2006年VOA标准英语-US Military Planners Examine Possible Iran

By Andre de Nesnera
Washington
20 April 2006
 
  
  
As Iran continues to defy the United Nations Security Council by enriching uranium -- a process that could lead to building nuclear weapons -- the international community is looking at ways to prevent Tehran from continuing its enrichment program.  The Security Council might consider sanctions when it meets April 28. André de Nesnera looks at another possible move, a U.S. military strike against Iran.

-----------------------------------------------

Last week, the Iranian government announced that it has successfully enriched uranium at its Natanz nuclear facility.  Enriching uranium is a process that can be used either for civilian¹ or military purposes.

Iranian officials have said for years their program is meant only for peaceful purposes, such as generating electricity.  But the United States and Europe believe Tehran's ambitions are ultimately to build a nuclear arsenal².
 

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad (l) and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki  
  
Iran's latest announcement came as the United Nations Security Council prepares to meet next week to decide what actions to take, if any, against Tehran.  Experts say the decision to enrich uranium is in clear defiance³ of the Security Council, which has called on Iran to suspend such activities.

The Iranian statements also coincide with a debate in Washington generated by recent news reports that the United States may be considering military attacks -- including possible nuclear strikes -- against Iranian facilities.

Senior U.S. administration officials have dismissed these reports and President Bush says diplomacy⁴ is the way to proceed. 

President Bush  
  
"We want to solve this issue diplomatically and we're working hard to do so," Mr. Bush said.

At the same time, President Bush said "all options are on the table."  And at a recent White House briefing, spokesman Scott McClellan said President Bush is "skeptical⁵" that the confrontation⁶ between the international community and Iran can be resolved peacefully.

Joseph Cirincione is a nuclear expert with the Council on Foreign Relations.  Citing Defense⁷ Department sources, Cirincione says some U.S. officials have already settled on the military option.

"Senior officials inside the administration have already decided⁸ that they want to hit Iran, that the whole point is to overthrow⁹ the regime in Iran," Cirincione said.  "The nuclear issue is just one of the issues for them, perhaps the issue they can use to justify¹⁰ the action.  But in their view, the object of the exercise is to continue the process of regime change that they believe they started with the war in Iraq.  I don't believe there is a consensus¹¹ in the administration over this.  I think there is a debate over this.  What I don't see is any senior official strongly arguing for the negotiation¹² path.  That's what worries me."

Cirincione says he hears the same rhetoric¹³ today as he did several years ago in the run-up to the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

"That's why it worries me when I see this coordinated¹⁴ campaign with the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, the vice-president, the president, the 'national security strategy' -- all coming out talking about the imminent¹⁵ threat from Iran:  that it's our central challenge, that it is the chief but state sponsor of terrorism, that we reinforce the notion of pre-emptive attacks, that we specifically keep targeting Iran as our major problem.  It is not our major problem," Cirincione said.  "Iraq is our major problem.  Iran isn't even our major nuclear problem.  That's North Korea.  They already have nuclear material."

A number of military analysts¹⁶ have written about a possible U.S. attack on Iran.  One of them is Paul Rogers from Bradford University in England [north-east of Manchester].  He says the military assault would come from the air.

"You would probably have anywhere between one and four days of raids," Rogers said. "The most intensive ones, coming at the start, would be the ones directed at the air defenses and the nuclear-related sites.  And it would be a combination, principally, of air strikes and the very considerable use of cruise missiles -- both [air-to-surface] standoff missiles launched from aircraft also sea-launched cruise missiles from cruisers, destroyers and submarines at sea.  One of the key components¹⁷ on the U.S. side would be the use of the B-2 stealth bomber¹⁸, because that has an extraordinary capability¹⁹ to deliver precision-guided munitions²⁰ with very little risk of any planes being shot down by the Iranian air defenses."

Rogers believes to cripple Iran's nuclear power program, the targets should not only be buildings or factories.

"There would be the need to try and kill as many as possible of the scientists, technicians, engineers, mathematicians²¹ who are involved in the process because, in some ways, one sets back a program much more by killing²² the personnel," Rogers said.

There is also a debate among military analysts whether or not the United States should consider using tactical nuclear weapons -- so-called 'bunker-busting bombs' - against Iran.  Some experts say that is one of the options considered by military planners.  But it doesn't automatically mean nuclear weapons will be used.

Ivan Oerlich, from the Federation²³ of American Scientists, says nuclear weapons shouldn't even be considered in the planning process.

"The argument always is:  'Well, you want to give the president options in a crisis.'  But in fact, there are some options we don't give the president.  We don't give the president the option to use chemical weapons," Oerlich said. "We've decided that we are not going to have chemical weapons.  And we don't give the president the option to use biological weapons.  And I think that we ought to not include nuclear weapons, even if these plans are hypothetical, 'what if' kinds of planning exercises."

Analysts say the military option should be considered as a last resor, when all diplomatic efforts have failed.

1 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

2 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

3 defiance   

n.挑战，挑衅，蔑视，违抗

参考例句：

• He climbed the ladder in defiance of the warning.他无视警告爬上了那架梯子。
• He slammed the door in a spirit of defiance.他以挑衅性的态度把门砰地一下关上。

4 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

5 skeptical   

adj.怀疑的，多疑的

参考例句：

• Others here are more skeptical about the chances for justice being done.这里的其他人更为怀疑正义能否得到伸张。
• Her look was skeptical and resigned.她的表情是将信将疑而又无可奈何。

6 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

7 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

8 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

9 overthrow   

v.推翻，打倒，颠覆；n.推翻，瓦解，颠覆

参考例句：

• After the overthrow of the government,the country was in chaos.政府被推翻后，这个国家处于混乱中。
• The overthrow of his plans left him much discouraged.他的计划的失败使得他很气馁。

10 justify   

vt.证明…正当(或有理)，为…辩护

参考例句：

• He tried to justify his absence with lame excuses.他想用站不住脚的借口为自己的缺席辩解。
• Can you justify your rude behavior to me?你能向我证明你的粗野行为是有道理的吗？

11 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

12 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

13 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

14 coordinated   

adj.协调的

参考例句：

• The sound has to be coordinated with the picture. 声音必须和画面协调一致。
• The numerous existing statutes are complicated and poorly coordinated. 目前繁多的法令既十分复杂又缺乏快调。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

15 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

16 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

17 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

18 bomber   

n.轰炸机，投弹手，投掷炸弹者

参考例句：

• He flew a bomber during the war.他在战时驾驶轰炸机。
• Detectives hunting the London bombers will be keen to interview him.追查伦敦爆炸案凶犯的侦探们急于对他进行讯问。

19 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

20 munitions   

n.军火，弹药；v.供应…军需品

参考例句：

• The army used precision-guided munitions to blow up enemy targets.军队用精确瞄准的枪炮炸掉敌方目标。
• He rose [made a career for himself] by dealing in munitions.他是靠贩卖军火发迹的。

21 mathematicians   

数学家( mathematician的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Do you suppose our mathematicians are unequal to that? 你以为我们的数学家做不到这一点吗？ 来自英汉文学
• Mathematicians can solve problems with two variables. 数学家们可以用两个变数来解决问题。 来自哲学部分

22 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

23 federation   

n.同盟，联邦，联合，联盟，联合会

参考例句：

• It is a federation of 10 regional unions.它是由十个地方工会结合成的联合会。
• Mr.Putin was inaugurated as the President of the Russian Federation.普京正式就任俄罗斯联邦总统。