2006年VOA标准英语-Experts: Israeli-Hezbollah Fighting Could Conti

By Meredith Buel
Washington
27 July 2006

Fierce fighting between Israeli troops and Hezbollah militants¹ has entered its third week, in a conflict that has killed more than 400 Lebanese and at least 50 Israelis.  Middle East analysts³ and Israeli military commanders are predicting the battle could last several more weeks and have an impact on the entire region.

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An Israeli tank crosses the border into Lebanon, July 27, 2006 
  
Backed by warplanes, Israeli tanks and troops are continuing efforts to create a buffer⁴ zone in southern Lebanon in an effort to stop Hezbollah guerillas from firing rockets into cities and towns in the northern part of the Jewish state.

Middle East analyst² Aaron David Miller⁵, who spent 20 years at the State Department working on the Arab-Israeli conflict, says it is not likely Israel will be able to completely disarm⁶ Hezbollah.

"There is no doubt that the Israelis set about, whether they will achieve their objectives is arguable in the extreme, set about to restore their sense of deterrence⁷, to punish Hezbollah and to raise the costs of a similar operation in the future and that clearly has made this a much more complicated process," he said.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says Iran and Syria are backing Hezbollah's attacks against Israel as part of a larger campaign to block the spread of democracy in the Middle East.

UN soldiers and Lebanese army soldiers clear rubble⁸ from destroyed building that was attacked by Israeli warplane missiles    
  
Middle East analysts say Hezbollah receives about $100 million a year from Tehran, and its Iranian-supplied weaponry is transported through Syria to Hezbollah's stronghold in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah's incursion into Israel and the capture of two Israeli soldiers July 12 sparked the current crisis.

Their kidnapping came at the same time there is mounting international pressure on Iran to halt uranium enrichment in its nuclear program in return for a package of incentives⁹ offered by the U.N. Security Council and Germany.

U.S. officials say Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program, something Tehran denies.

Barbara Slavin, the senior diplomatic reporter for the newspaper USA Today, is currently writing a book about U.S. relations with Iran.

Slavin says the latest fighting in Lebanon is likely to lead the Bush administration to put more pressure on the Tehran government to curb¹⁰ its nuclear program.

"Americans are going to see this as another excuse to try to isolate¹¹ Iran, another excuse to push harder at the Security Council for sanctions, for punishment to insist to the Europeans, the Russians and the Chinese that they hold firm on insistence¹² that Iran suspend enrichment as a price for negotiations," she said.

Tehran University Law And Political Science Professor Hadi Semati is a visiting scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.  He says while some conservative analysts in Iran support Hezbollah's decision to fire hundreds of rockets into Israel, more progressive commentators¹³ say the organization did not anticipate such a massive military response from the Jewish state.

"This has been a strategic blunder by Hezbollah," said Professor Semati.  "Some of the reformist press are arguing about that and writing extensively on that, that Hezbollah made a huge miscalculation and by this operation basically exposed itself, reduced the deterrence value of its assets, ultimately weakening the strategic position of Iran in the region and against the U.S. and against Israel."

Middle East analyst Aaron David Miller says although the main elements of a possible cease-fire are emerging, he expects it will take weeks before the fighting stops.

"I think this will be resolved sometime in the next two to three weeks," he said.  "The elements are all there for a deal.  A buffer zone, a prisoner swap¹⁴ sometime down the road, and an international force of some kind, undetermined as of yet, to create a measure of buffer between Israel and Hezbollah.  It will not produce the disarming¹⁵ of Hezbollah and it will certainly not produce an extension of Lebanese central authority and effectiveness in the south."

Miller says many Lebanese perceive Hezbollah as the last remaining line of defense¹⁶ against Israel.

He says Hezbollah is likely to emerge from the current conflict as a weakened resistance group, but one that remains¹⁷ a critically important armed faction¹⁸ in Lebanon.

1 militants   

激进分子，好斗分子( militant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The militants have been sporadically fighting the government for years. 几年来，反叛分子一直对政府实施零星的战斗。
• Despite the onslaught, Palestinian militants managed to fire off rockets. 尽管如此，巴勒斯坦的激进分子仍然发射导弹。

2 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 buffer   

n.起缓冲作用的人(或物)，缓冲器；vt.缓冲

参考例句：

• A little money can be a useful buffer in time of need.在急需时，很少一点钱就能解燃眉之急。
• Romantic love will buffer you against life's hardships.浪漫的爱会减轻生活的艰辛。

5 miller   

n.磨坊主

参考例句：

• Every miller draws water to his own mill.磨坊主都往自己磨里注水。
• The skilful miller killed millions of lions with his ski.技术娴熟的磨坊主用雪橇杀死了上百万头狮子。

6 disarm   

v.解除武装，回复平常的编制，缓和

参考例句：

• The world has waited 12 years for Iraq to disarm. 全世界等待伊拉克解除武装已有12年之久。
• He has rejected every peaceful opportunity offered to him to disarm.他已经拒绝了所有能和平缴械的机会。

7 deterrence   

威慑，制止； 制止物，制止因素； 挽留的事物； 核威慑

参考例句：

• An extreme school of "disarmers" pronounced stable deterrence was a dangerous deception. “裁军论者”中的极端派声称，稳定的威摄是一种危险的骗局。
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。

8 rubble   

n.（一堆）碎石，瓦砾

参考例句：

• After the earthquake,it took months to clean up the rubble.地震后，花了数月才清理完瓦砾。
• After the war many cities were full of rubble.战后许多城市到处可见颓垣残壁。

9 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

10 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

11 isolate   

vt.使孤立，隔离

参考例句：

• Do not isolate yourself from others.不要把自己孤立起来。
• We should never isolate ourselves from the masses.我们永远不能脱离群众。

12 insistence   

n.坚持；强调；坚决主张

参考例句：

• They were united in their insistence that she should go to college.他们一致坚持她应上大学。
• His insistence upon strict obedience is correct.他坚持绝对服从是对的。

13 commentators   

n.评论员( commentator的名词复数 )；时事评论员；注释者；实况广播员

参考例句：

• Sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 体育解说员翻来覆去说着同样的词语，真叫人腻烦。
• Television sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 电视体育解说员说来说去就是那么几句话，令人厌烦。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 swap   

n.交换；vt.交换，用...作交易

参考例句：

• I will swap you my bicycle for your radio.我想拿我的自行车换你的收音机。
• This comic was a swap that I got from Nick.这本漫画书是我从尼克那里换来的。

15 disarming   

adj.消除敌意的，使人消气的v.裁军( disarm的现在分词 )；使息怒

参考例句：

• He flashed her a disarming smile. 他朝她笑了一下，让她消消气。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• We will agree to disarming troops and leaving their weapons at military positions. 我们将同意解除军队的武装并把武器留在军事阵地。 来自辞典例句

16 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

17 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

18 faction   

n.宗派，小集团；派别；派系斗争

参考例句：

• Faction and self-interest appear to be the norm.派系之争和自私自利看来非常普遍。
• I now understood clearly that I was caught between the king and the Bunam's faction.我现在完全明白自己已陷入困境，在国王与布纳姆集团之间左右为难。