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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
By Meredith Buel
Washington
24 August 2006
United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan meets with European foreign ministers Friday in Brussels where he is expected to encourage them to send armed forces to southern Lebanon to help enforce the truce1 between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas. Some Middle East analysts3 are expressing doubts that the international peacekeeping force will be able to succeed in its mission.
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French soldiers of UNIFIL prepare their vehicles to be painted white at UN headquarters near southern border of Lebanon, Aug. 24, 2006
Earlier this month the U.N. Security Council approved resolution 1701 that led to the current ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
The resolution calls for the expansion of the 2,000-strong U.N. force already in southern Lebanon to 15,000 soldiers.
The resolution calls on Israel to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon and authorizes4 15,000 Lebanese soldiers to work with the enhanced U.N. force to monitor the truce.
Retired5 U.S. Army Lieutenant6 General Daniel Christman, who participated in diplomatic and peacekeeping missions in the Middle East and the Balkans, says no operation is likely to succeed for the long term in Lebanon because there is no political solution in sight to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
"I fear that from a mission success standpoint this peacekeeping, this peace enforcement mission, however it will unfold, will be doomed7 to mission failure. This is in my judgment8 an underlying9 political problem which is yet to be resolved," he said.
An Indian unit from UNIFIL on top of an armored carrier patrols a road near the southern border town of Taibe, Lebanon, Aug. 23, 2006
The expanded U.N. force in southern Lebanon is expected to consist mostly of soldiers from European countries, although some have expressed reluctance10 to send troops until the rules of engagement are clear.
General Christman says armed forces in many countries are already stretched thin by military commitments around the globe.
"The U.N. now has 17 missions and over 85,000 troops deployed11 in U.N. missions around the globe. You add East Timor to that, you add Darfur to that, and you easily crest12 100,000. Nations don't have those assets available," he said.
Resolution 1701 stresses that the Lebanese government must take control over all its territory and disarm13 Hezbollah.
Emile El-Hokayem, a Lebanese analyst2 currently with the Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington, says the government in Beirut is not currently in a position to remove weapons from Hezbollah fighters.
"I just want to be clear about what the Lebanese government can do at this point," he said. "It can constrain14 and restrain Hezbollah. It currently lacks, and will for a long time lack, the political and military capability15 to disarm it. Disarming16 Hezbollah right now is not a realistic option for the government. So to be honest the debate right now is more about weapons management than disarmament. The question is whether Israel can live with that."
The director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Michael Eisenstadt, says a critical component17 of any peacekeeping force will be engineers and other soldiers who can rapidly assist with the reconstruction18 of the war-torn country.
"We learned from our experience in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere there is a golden hour," he said. "If you get in on the ground early and start with reconstruction activities, you have a much better chance of success than if the reconstruction efforts are delayed."
Eisenstadt predicts in the short-term both Israel and Hezbollah will avoid any major violations19 of the ceasefire and U.N. forces with Lebanese troops will be able to keep the peace in the near future.
Eisenstadt says, however, the recent war still left many issues unresolved, and he predicts in the future there will be a revival20 of the conflict in southern Lebanon.
1 truce | |
n.休战,(争执,烦恼等的)缓和;v.以停战结束 | |
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2 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
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3 analysts | |
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 ) | |
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4 authorizes | |
授权,批准,委托( authorize的名词复数 ) | |
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5 retired | |
adj.隐退的,退休的,退役的 | |
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6 lieutenant | |
n.陆军中尉,海军上尉;代理官员,副职官员 | |
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7 doomed | |
命定的 | |
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8 judgment | |
n.审判;判断力,识别力,看法,意见 | |
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9 underlying | |
adj.在下面的,含蓄的,潜在的 | |
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10 reluctance | |
n.厌恶,讨厌,勉强,不情愿 | |
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11 deployed | |
(尤指军事行动)使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 ); 施展; 部署; 有效地利用 | |
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12 crest | |
n.顶点;饰章;羽冠;vt.达到顶点;vi.形成浪尖 | |
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13 disarm | |
v.解除武装,回复平常的编制,缓和 | |
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14 constrain | |
vt.限制,约束;克制,抑制 | |
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15 capability | |
n.能力;才能;(pl)可发展的能力或特性等 | |
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16 disarming | |
adj.消除敌意的,使人消气的v.裁军( disarm的现在分词 );使息怒 | |
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17 component | |
n.组成部分,成分,元件;adj.组成的,合成的 | |
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18 reconstruction | |
n.重建,再现,复原 | |
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19 violations | |
违反( violation的名词复数 ); 冒犯; 违反(行为、事例); 强奸 | |
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20 revival | |
n.复兴,复苏,(精力、活力等的)重振 | |
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