2006年VOA标准英语-US Intelligence Report Leaked to Press a Mix of

By Gary Thomas
Washington
27 September 2006

The leak to American newspapers of a secret National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism prompted President Bush to make public portions of the estimate itself. The NIE, as it is known, is the product of collaboration¹ of all the U.S. intelligence agencies. Producing the intelligence estimate is a trying task.

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Portions of the still-classified NIE that surfaced in several American newspapers said the war in Iraq had exacerbated² the fight against terrorism. 

Michael Scheuer   
  
Former CIA officer Michael Scheuer, who once headed the unit hunting Osama bin³ Laden⁴, tells VOA the work has been in progress for some time, and agrees that its leaking was politically motivated. "When I resigned in 2004, one of the last briefings I did was for the national intelligence officer who was in charge of preparing this estimate. So it's been under way for the better part of two years, at least 18 months. And so that it came now, it's not surprising that it's finished. But it looks like the leak and the counter-publication by the administration are clearly politically motivated," he said.

Discussing newly declassified⁵ portions of the estimate at a Washington forum⁶, U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte said the NIE covered far more than just Iraq.

John Negroponte  
  
"As you can see, this is a very broad summary of trends in global terrorism. But that is the point. An NIE provides a comprehensive assessment⁷ of major issues facing the United States, providing the best intelligence that we can develop for policymakers," he said.

A National Intelligence Estimate is the highest collaborative product of all the country's intelligence agencies. At the request of a policymaker, or on their own initiative, officers from the 16 agencies get together to examine an issue or geographic⁸ area in depth. The director of national intelligence then signs off on the estimate and presents it to the president.

Bill Nolte, the former deputy assistant director of central intelligence for analysis, who has worked on up to 30 NIEs in his career, said in an interview, the judgments⁹ in the final product can be one of consensus¹⁰ or conflict, depending on how much the different agencies can agree.

"I worked on an estimate years ago, I won't mention the country, where you could almost see the blood on the floor in terms of it was all over the place with, 'we disagree on this, and most people think this but State thinks this way and CIA thinks that way.' I always thought that was a wonderful estimate because the policymakers got a sense that this was a difficult issue that was not going to lend itself to immediate¹¹ consensus," he said.

Analysts¹² say the declassified findings of the terrorism NIE are not particularly surprising. Director Negroponte says, for example, that al-Qaida has been significantly harmed by counter-terrorism efforts.

"United States-led counter-terrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qaida and disrupted its operations. However, we judge that al-Qaida will continue to pose the most significant threat to the homeland and U.S. interests abroad by any single terrorist group," he said.

But Scheuer says there is no clear, workable criteria¹³ for measuring success against al-Qaida.

"I think that speaks to a problem that we've had for a decade now in that we really don't have any tool or any method of measuring progress against al-Qaida. We have a body count of those people that we've killed and captured, and we extrapolate from that to say, well, we've gotten this many bodies, we must have hurt them. Well, I think that's an assumption, but I'm not at all confident that that's a metric of any kind of reliability," he said.

The estimate also says that the nature of al-Qaida has changed from the organization it was in 2001 to a more decentralized one, with operations carried out by independent sympathizers rather than centrally directed by bin Laden and his associates.

Scheuer says that highlights bin Laden's own vision of himself as an instigator¹⁴ and inspiration for the jihadist movement, rather than as a kind of chief executive officer for a global terrorist movement. He says bin Laden's role of inspirational figure is "monumental," and underscores why he must be killed.

1 collaboration   

n.合作，协作；勾结

参考例句：

• The two companies are working in close collaboration each other.这两家公司密切合作。
• He was shot for collaboration with the enemy.他因通敌而被枪毙了。

2 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 bin   

n.箱柜；vt.放入箱内；[计算机] DOS文件名:二进制目标文件

参考例句：

• He emptied several bags of rice into a bin.他把几袋米倒进大箱里。
• He threw the empty bottles in the bin.他把空瓶子扔进垃圾箱。

4 laden   

adj.装满了的；充满了的；负了重担的；苦恼的

参考例句：

• He is laden with heavy responsibility.他肩负重任。
• Dragging the fully laden boat across the sand dunes was no mean feat.将满载货物的船拖过沙丘是一件了不起的事。

5 declassified   

adj.解密的v.对（机密文件等）销密( declassify的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Thousands of classified documents have now been declassified. 数以千计的保密文件现在被解密了。
• The software used for Siemens S7-300 encryption logic block declassified. 此软件用于对西门子S7-300加密逻辑块解密。

6 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

7 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

8 geographic   

adj.地理学的，地理的

参考例句：

• The city's success owes much to its geographic position. 这座城市的成功很大程度上归功于它的地理位置。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Environmental problems pay no heed to these geographic lines. 环境问题并不理会这些地理界限。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

9 judgments   

判断( judgment的名词复数 )； 鉴定； 评价； 审判

参考例句：

• A peculiar austerity marked his judgments of modern life. 他对现代生活的批评带着一种特殊的苛刻。
• He is swift with his judgments. 他判断迅速。

10 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

11 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

12 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

13 criteria   

n.标准

参考例句：

• The main criterion is value for money.主要的标准是钱要用得划算。
• There are strict criteria for inclusion in the competition.参赛的标准很严格。

14 instigator   

n.煽动者

参考例句：

• It is not a and differs from instigator in nature. 在刑法理论中，通常将教唆犯作为共犯的一种类型加以探究。 来自互联网
• If we are really the instigator, we are awaiting punishment. 如果我们真的是煽动者，那我们愿意接受惩罚。 来自互联网