2007年VOA标准英语-Political Uncertainty, Policy Changes Unnerve I

By Ron Corben
Bangkok
16 January 2007

Thai worker stands next to a sign calling for increased minimum wage in Thailand (File photo)

Political and policy uncertainties¹ cloud the economic outlook for Thailand this year. As Ron Corben reports from Bangkok, the military-installed government faces problems, some self-inflicted, that have led to confusion among foreign investors³, charges of mismanagement and an erosion of confidence.

The Thai economy has had a shaky start to 2007.

Bomb blasts in Bangkok on New Year's Eve, which killed three people, along with controversial new investment rules imposed by the military-installed government have hurt business confidence.

The blasts came three months after a bloodless coup⁴ that ousted⁵ elected Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Mr. Thaksin, now in exile, had been accused of abuse of power and corruption⁶.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, says the bombings have shaken the country.

"The bomb blasts on New Year's Eve were profound. We've never had bomb blasts, multiple bomb blasts, in central Bangkok like that. To me, the bomb attacks suggest that the military does not have the situation under control and it shows that the coup has gone wrong," said Thitinan.

Confidence in the junta⁷, known as the Council of National Security, was initially⁸ dented⁹ in December, when the central bank set new rules to discourage investors from pouring large amounts of overseas money into Thai investments. The goal was to keep the baht from rising, because the government fears a stronger currency will make Thai exports more expensive and uncompetitive on world markets.

But the unintended result was an immediate¹⁰ 15 percent plunge¹¹ in stock market prices, as investors raced to sell shares because they feared they soon would not be able to take their profits out of the country. Although authorities quickly lifted the parts of the rules that applied¹² to stocks, the main index is still down more than 11 percent from its mid-December level.

The government was criticized at home and abroad first for the heavy-handed and sudden way it changed the rules, and then for the rapid retreat. Many market analysts¹³ say the government appeared indecisive and as if it had not fully¹⁴ thought out its actions.

Further uncertainty¹⁵ came this month, with a tightening¹⁶ of the Alien Business Law, which governs foreign investment.

"On the economy we are seeing haphazard¹⁷ public policy and mismanagement over the baht appreciation¹⁸. Now the amendments¹⁹ to the Alien Business Law are going to be a cause of concern for investors. So on all fronts, both the military and the government, appear embattled," added Thitinan.

The changes limit foreigners to owning no more than 50 percent of a company in Thailand. They were prompted by the controversial sale last year of Mr. Thaksin's family company to a Singapore investment conglomerate²⁰.

Gary Woollacott, president of the Australian Thai Chamber²¹ of Commerce in Bangkok, says investors may look to other countries in light of the new rules and uncertainties.

"People will have to reconsider whether they come and invest in Thailand. None of us wants that to happen - we're all quite strong believers in Thailand, that's why we've chosen to locate ourselves here," said Woollacott.

Thai Finance Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula has tried to calm fears by saying the new law will affect far fewer companies than many investors think.

But Arporn Chewekrengkai, chief economist²² with the Government Pension Fund, says even if that is true, the policy moves have already damaged investor² sentiment.

"The damage has been done," said Arporn. "I think it will take quite some time to restore this confidence because it is the wrong signals that are clearly out. It is quite difficult."

Arporn fears the economy will weaken because she expects lower exports, reduced domestic consumption and reduced investor confidence.

She also fears the political atmosphere could sour further if opponents of the current government take to the streets in protest.

Another casualty of the uncertainty is the lucrative²³ tourism industry. Several countries have issued warnings to their nationals about the possible dangers of traveling to the "Land of Smiles," as Thailand calls itself, because of the recent bombings and the political uncertainty.

Despite the problems and policy changes, some analysts remain upbeat about the economy. Shamika Sirimanne is a senior economist with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific in Bangkok.

"Good prospects²⁴ going into 2007. We predicted it will grow about 4.7 percent - this is the same prediction we had after the [September 19] coup. So we still maintain these predictions. Thailand still looks pretty good - good macro-economic fundamentals so it gives confidence to someone entering the country," said Sirimanne.

However, Sirimanne says Thailand's government must restore confidence and boost investment to keep the economy growing.

Some market analysts warn that potential foreign investors may put plans on hold until an elected government comes to power, possibly by the first quarter of 2008.

Such delays, they say, will slow growth and undermine confidence in the government's ability to sustain a healthy economy.

1 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

2 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 coup   

n.政变；突然而成功的行动

参考例句：

• The monarch was ousted by a military coup.那君主被军事政变者废黜了。
• That government was overthrown in a military coup three years ago.那个政府在3年前的军事政变中被推翻。

5 ousted   

驱逐( oust的过去式和过去分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• He was ousted as chairman. 他的主席职务被革除了。
• He may be ousted by a military takeover. 他可能在一场军事接管中被赶下台。

6 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

7 junta   

n.团体；政务审议会

参考例句：

• The junta reacted violently to the perceived threat to its authority.军政府感到自身权力受威胁而进行了激烈反击。
• A military junta took control of the country.一个军政权控制了国家。

8 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

9 dented   

v.使产生凹痕( dent的过去式和过去分词 )；损害；伤害；挫伤（信心、名誉等）

参考例句：

• The back of the car was badly dented in the collision. 汽车尾部被撞后严重凹陷。
• I'm afraid I've dented the car. 恐怕我把车子撞瘪了一些。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

11 plunge   

v.跳入，(使)投入，(使)陷入；猛冲

参考例句：

• Test pool's water temperature before you plunge in.在你跳入之前你应该测试水温。
• That would plunge them in the broil of the two countries.那将会使他们陷入这两国的争斗之中。

12 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

13 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

14 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

15 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

16 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

17 haphazard   

adj.无计划的，随意的，杂乱无章的

参考例句：

• The town grew in a haphazard way.这城镇无计划地随意发展。
• He regrerted his haphazard remarks.他悔不该随口说出那些评论话。

18 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

19 amendments   

（法律、文件的）改动( amendment的名词复数 )； 修正案； 修改； （美国宪法的）修正案

参考例句：

• The committee does not adequately consult others when drafting amendments. 委员会在起草修正案时没有充分征求他人的意见。
• Please propose amendments and addenda to the first draft of the document. 请对这个文件的初稿提出修改和补充意见。

20 conglomerate   

n.综合商社，多元化集团公司

参考例句：

• The firm has been taken over by an American conglomerate.该公司已被美国一企业集团接管。
• An American conglomerate holds a major share in the company.一家美国的大联合企业持有该公司的大部分股份。

21 chamber   

n.房间，寝室；会议厅；议院；会所

参考例句：

• For many,the dentist's surgery remains a torture chamber.对许多人来说，牙医的治疗室一直是间受刑室。
• The chamber was ablaze with light.会议厅里灯火辉煌。

22 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

23 lucrative   

adj.赚钱的，可获利的

参考例句：

• He decided to turn his hobby into a lucrative sideline.他决定把自己的爱好变成赚钱的副业。
• It was not a lucrative profession.那是一个没有多少油水的职业。

24 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。