2007年VOA标准英语-Vietnam's Stock Market Roars Skyward

By Matt Steinglass
Hanoi
17 January 2007

The Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange has been chalking up extraordinary numbers. The VNIndex is up about 31 percent since the start of this year. The market's enthusiasm reflects Vietnam's strong economy, but some experts have warned of "irrational¹ exuberance²". In Hanoi, Matt Steinglass has more.

Investors3 crowd Saigon Securities Incorporation4 (SSI)'s trading floor in Ho Chi Minh city " hspace="2" src="/upimg/allimg/070516/1559510.jpg" width="197" vspace="2" border="0" />

Investors crowd Saigon Securities Incorporation (SSI)'s trading floor in Ho Chi Minh City

Vietnam's stock market had a spectacular year in 2006, with the main index up 144 percent to close at 751 points at year's end. In the new year, it has only gotten stronger. The VNIndex topped 800 on January 5, and 900 on January 12. This week, it has neared 1,000.

At the Bao Viet Securities Company in Hanoi, which trades shares listed on the Ho Chi Minh City exchange, trader Tran Sy Tiep says he has never been so busy.

Tiep says the traders have no free time at all lately. He says they get home from work at midnight every night.

The rising index partly reflects the strength of Vietnam's economy, which grew eight percent last year. The country joined the World Trade Organization on January 11, signaling that its export-driven economy should continue to grow.

Dominic Scriven is the managing director of Dragon Capital, which manages over a billion dollars in Vietnamese assets and securities. Scriven says Vietnam's growing economy is awash with cash.

"So liquidity⁵ needs to find a home. And given that the real estate market is not quite as active as some people had hoped it might be, it's easy to see that liquidity can flow into markets for other assets, like financial assets," said Scriven.

But many observers feel the economy's fundamentals cannot account for the extraordinary rise. Vietnam's stock market is still small, with just 106 companies listed. Some stocks are already trading at price-to-earnings⁶ ratios of 30 to one. That means the price of one share is more than 30 times the company's earnings per share. In most markets, ratios over 20 are considered high and a sign that a market is nearing its top.

In a report issued in mid-December, the International Monetary⁷ Fund's Hanoi office cautioned investors against what it called "irrational exuberance". At the time, the VNIndex stood in the mid-700s. It has risen over 200 points since.

The governor of Vietnam's State Bank has warned that the prices of some shares involved "illusory factors." He said that many Vietnamese companies release misleading financial statements.

"Yes, there is a kind of element of overexcitement, in a way going beyond the capacity of the market, going beyond the capacity of the regulatory authority at this moment. The market development is too fast, in a way," said Noritaka Akematsu, the lead financial economist⁸ at the World Bank's office in Hanoi.

Noritaka says the exchange's infrastructure⁹ has improved, but is still inadequate¹⁰ to handle the volume of trading. He says the Vietnamese authorities cannot ensure that companies report their earnings accurately¹¹, or that trades are properly settled. Investors, he says, should be careful.

"With inadequate transparency, it is difficult to do fundamental analysis," he said.  "I hope they will invest more on the fundamentals of individual stocks, rather than just going like a casino, or a game."

Some of the exuberance has seen in other parts of Asia, where exports have driven economic growth higher. Most of the region's stock markets rose sharply last year. In China, where economic growth was more than 10 percent, Shanghai's main stock index more than doubled last year. Mumbai's index was up more than 50 percent, as the economy expanded by more than eight percent. 

Dragon Capital's Scriven says while the risks are real, they are inevitable¹² in a young market like Vietnam's.

"I think anybody who follows this equity¹³ market has got to raise their eyebrows¹⁴ slightly at the level of activity. Equally, I have a suspicion that it's possibly not that easy to avoid, because there are sort of growing pains, and you need to have bull markets [rising markets] and you need to have bear markets [falling markets]," he said.

At the moment, the Vietnamese market is as bullish as a bull market can be.

1 irrational   

adj.无理性的，失去理性的

参考例句：

• After taking the drug she became completely irrational.她在吸毒后变得完全失去了理性。
• There are also signs of irrational exuberance among some investors.在某些投资者中是存在非理性繁荣的征象的。

2 exuberance   

n.丰富；繁荣

参考例句：

• Her burst of exuberance and her brightness overwhelmed me.她勃发的热情和阳光的性格征服了我。
• The sheer exuberance of the sculpture was exhilarating.那尊雕塑表现出的勃勃生机让人振奋。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 incorporation   

n.设立，合并，法人组织

参考例句：

• The incorporation of air bubbles in the glass spoiled it.玻璃含有气泡，使它质量降低。
• The company will be retooled after the incorporation.合并之后的公司要进行重组。

5 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

6 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

7 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

10 inadequate   

adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的

参考例句：

• The supply is inadequate to meet the demand.供不应求。
• She was inadequate to the demands that were made on her.她还无力满足对她提出的各项要求。

11 accurately   

adv.准确地，精确地

参考例句：

• It is hard to hit the ball accurately.准确地击中球很难。
• Now scientists can forecast the weather accurately.现在科学家们能准确地预报天气。

12 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

13 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

14 eyebrows   

眉毛( eyebrow的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Eyebrows stop sweat from coming down into the eyes. 眉毛挡住汗水使其不能流进眼睛。
• His eyebrows project noticeably. 他的眉毛特别突出。