2007年VOA标准英语-Study Says US Should Plan for Iraq Civil War

By Meredith Buel
Washington
30 January 2007

A new report by an independent policy and research organization says Iraq is rapidly descending¹ into an all-out civil war and urges U.S. officials to begin planning how to contain such a conflict to avoid what the authors call a catastrophe² in the Middle East. The report, written by security and regional specialists at the Brookings Institution, says such a war will lead to a humanitarian³ tragedy in Iraq and has the potential to destabilize neighboring countries. VOA correspondent Meredith Buel has more in this background report from Washington.

Iraqi army moves in after clashes north of Najaf, 28 Jan. 2007

The report's authors say President Bush's new strategy to send more than 20,000 additional troops to Iraq is what they call a last-chance effort to quell⁴ the fighting and jumpstart a process of reconciliation⁵ and economic reconstruction⁶.

A co-author of the report, Kenneth Pollack, a senior analyst⁷ of Middle East policy at the Brookings Institution, says U.S. and Iraqi officials need to prepare for what the report calls an irrevocable slide into civil war. "All-out civil war in Iraq would be a tragedy, but allowing the instability from an all-out civil war in Iraq to spread beyond it could be a catastrophe," he said.

The report is the result of a year-long study, which examined civil wars in places like Afghanistan, Lebanon and the former Yugoslavia, to see if lessons can be learned to minimize what the authors call the spillover from a potential large-scale civil war in Iraq.

If there is a total collapse⁸ in Iraq the report estimates that hundreds of thousands of Iraqis will die, millions of refugees will flee the fighting, a new breeding ground for terrorists will be created, and American influence in the Middle East will be "drastically diminished."

Dan Byman, a co-author of the report and the director of Georgetown University's Security Studies Program, says the United States has a unique responsibility if such a dire⁹ situation does occur. "The humanitarian consequences are staggering and they are even more painful I would argue because this was initiated¹⁰, these problems began, because of the U.S. invasion. I think in American eyes, to say nothing of the eyes of the world, or the region or Iraq, this is a problem created by the United States and as a result the United States has a special responsibility," he said.

If there is an all-out civil war the report recommends that U.S. troops pullback from Iraqi population centers, and refocus American efforts from preventing the conflict to containing it.

The authors recommend setting up safe havens¹¹ along Iraq's borders to protect refugees and limit the flow of terrorists and foreign fighters trying to enter the country.

Analyst Kenneth Pollack says the U.S. should not completely withdraw its troops from the country. "If the president's plan fails I do not see how we stay. But if we walk away from it, we could wind up with civil war spreading beyond Iraq's borders, or civil war in Iraq devolving into a massive regional war, either of which could destabilize the region, threaten the world's oil supplies and cause havoc¹² in any number of other ways," he said.

The authors say their strategy requires a continued large-scale U.S. military commitment, which they concede runs counter to growing American opposition¹³ to the war.

Dan Byman predicts the conflict will influence American foreign policy for many years to come. "The troubles we are experiencing in Iraq are going to have such a profound affect that U.S. policymakers of any [political] party, of any administration, are going to be dealing¹⁴ with this, we believe for at least the next 10 years, perhaps as the primary driver of U.S. policy in the region, whether we like it or not," he said.

The report concludes that trying to contain the spillover from an all-out civil war in Iraq will be costly¹⁵, painful and bloody¹⁶. It says that ignoring the possibility and failing to plan for such a scenario¹⁷ will make the conflict even worse.

1 descending   

n. 下行 adj. 下降的

参考例句：

• The results are expressed in descending numerical order . 结果按数字降序列出。
• The climbers stopped to orient themselves before descending the mountain. 登山者先停下来确定所在的位置，然后再下山。

2 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

3 humanitarian   

n.人道主义者，博爱者，基督凡人论者

参考例句：

• She has many humanitarian interests and contributes a lot to them.她拥有很多慈善事业，并作了很大的贡献。
• The British government has now suspended humanitarian aid to the area.英国政府现已暂停对这一地区的人道主义援助。

4 quell   

v.压制，平息，减轻

参考例句：

• Soldiers were sent in to quell the riots.士兵们被派去平息骚乱。
• The armed force had to be called out to quell violence.不得不出动军队来镇压暴力行动。

5 reconciliation   

n.和解，和谐，一致

参考例句：

• He was taken up with the reconciliation of husband and wife.他忙于做夫妻间的调解工作。
• Their handshake appeared to be a gesture of reconciliation.他们的握手似乎是和解的表示。

6 reconstruction   

n.重建，再现，复原

参考例句：

• The country faces a huge task of national reconstruction following the war.战后，该国面临着重建家园的艰巨任务。
• In the period of reconstruction,technique decides everything.在重建时期，技术决定一切。

7 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

8 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

9 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

10 initiated   

n. 创始人 adj. 新加入的 vt. 开始，创始，启蒙，介绍加入

参考例句：

• He has not yet been thoroughly initiated into the mysteries of computers. 他对计算机的奥秘尚未入门。
• The artist initiated the girl into the art world in France. 这个艺术家介绍这个女孩加入巴黎艺术界。

11 havens   

n.港口，安全地方( haven的名词复数 )v.港口，安全地方( haven的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Your twenty havens would back out at the last minute anyhow. 你那二十个避难所到了最后一分钟也要不认帐。 来自辞典例句
• Using offshore havens to avoid taxes and investor protections. 使用海面的港口避免税和投资者保护。 来自互联网

12 havoc   

n.大破坏，浩劫，大混乱，大杂乱

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city.地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• This concentration of airborne firepower wrought havoc with the enemy forces.这次机载火力的集中攻击给敌军造成很大破坏。

13 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

14 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

15 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

16 bloody   

adj.非常的的；流血的；残忍的；adv.很；vt.血染

参考例句：

• He got a bloody nose in the fight.他在打斗中被打得鼻子流血。
• He is a bloody fool.他是一个十足的笨蛋。

17 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。