VOA常速英语2007年-Polling Propels Political Process

By Jeffrey Young
Washington
07 November 2007
 

Every presidential aspirant¹ uses opinion polling data to shape his or her campaign in the quest for the White House. In this segment of How America Elects, VOA's Jeffrey Young looks at the vital role of polls and pollsters in forging campaign strategies.

Who leads the race to the White House? What are the big issues voters care about? Political candidates and their parties get those answers from public opinion polling.

Political campaigns use polls to make critical strategy and resource decisions -- everything from where the candidate needs to make personal appearances to which campaign issues resonate with voters.

The Gallup Organization has conducted political polling since the 1930s. Gallup official Frank Newport says these surveys serve as blueprints². "Candidates today, or political parties, use polling to set the framework, to actually design their campaign," he explains. "Oftentimes, they will look to see what issues they should emphasize and what issues they shouldn't emphasize in their overall strategy. Then, campaigns and candidates and parties use the polling as a benchmark as the campaign continues to know how they're doing." 

Polls, like blueprints, must be accurate. That requires carefully constructing survey sample groups using proven formulas and principles. Zogby International's Michelle van Gilder³ explains, "It's all done through mathematical equations and rules of probability. You can get a sample that some may consider [to be] relatively⁴ modest if you are looking at a country with the [300 million] population of the United States -- of 1,000. But with that 1,000 [person sample size], which most pollsters use for your typical polls, that will give you a very high level of accuracy."

Major U.S. pollsters such as Zogby and Gallup operate telephone survey centers to reach the people selected to be in their sample groups. Only a small amount of this polling is done face-to-face, or over the Internet.

By asking a number of questions, pollsters get a sense of how each candidate's stance on significant election issues is supported by voters.

Polling also provides political parties with trends, such as how favorably voters view the Republicans versus⁵ the Democrats⁶ over a span of time.

But Frank Newport at Gallup says that candidates can also over-react to polling data, and by doing that, risk losing some of their support. "Some people criticize candidates if they go too far in changing their positions just to meet what polling shows what the public wants. So candidates have to be careful in how far they move in that direction," he said. 

Between now and election day scores of polls will be conducted, prompting endless analysis by both the campaigns and those who observe politics. But ultimately, the only poll that matters is the ballot⁷ box itself.

1 aspirant   

n.热望者；adj.渴望的

参考例句：

• Any aspirant to the presidency here must be seriously rich.要想当这儿的主席一定要家财万贯。
• He is among the few aspirants with administrative experience.他是为数不多的几个志向远大而且有管理经验的人之一。

2 blueprints   

n.蓝图，设计图( blueprint的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Have the blueprints been worked out? 蓝图搞好了吗？ 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• BluePrints description of a distributed component of the system design and best practice guidelines. BluePrints描述了一个分布式组件体系的最佳练习和设计指导方针。 来自互联网

3 gilder   

镀金工人

参考例句：

4 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

5 versus   

prep.以…为对手，对；与…相比之下

参考例句：

• The big match tonight is England versus Spain.今晚的大赛是英格兰对西班牙。
• The most exciting game was Harvard versus Yale.最富紧张刺激的球赛是哈佛队对耶鲁队。

6 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。