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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
Johannesburg
13 November 2007
Next month, South Africa's African National Congress will hold its national conference to endorse1 policy decisions taken earlier this year and to elect leaders, including the party president who, since the end of apartheid, has gone on to become the president of the nation. VOA's Delia Robertson looks ahead to the conference.
Perhaps unlike any previous national gathering2 of the African National Congress, next month's deliberations will distill3 down to one major issue for delegates: the election of the party's leaders and, particularly, the party president for the next five years.
As analyst4 Aubrey Matshiqi of the independent Center for Policy Studies explains, becoming president of the ANC can be key in eventually becoming president of South Africa.
"So there is the expectation that the person who is elected president of the ANC in December, if that person is not Thabo Mbeki, who cannot seek re-election as head-of-state, in terms of our constitution, that person is likely to be head-of-state in 2009," said Matshiqi.
The battle lines for the presidential contest this December were already drawn5 in 2005, when President Thabo Mbeki fired Jacob Zuma from his post as deputy president of South Africa. Zuma's financial adviser6, Shabir Shaik, had been convicted on charges of corruption7, relating to money paid to Zuma.
At first, the decision seemed to deal a fatal blow to Zuma's presidential aspirations8. But if President Mbeki expected his ambitious deputy to quietly fade into political obscurity, he was wrong.
At a meeting of ANC leaders in 2005, Zuma outmaneuvered President Mbeki to retain his post of deputy president of the party. And, although he denies he has presidential ambitions, he has been engaged in a well-organized and well-funded campaign for the top party job and, by extension, the presidency9 of the country.
There is less clarity on why President Mbeki continues to compete for the party leadership. Some say it is because he is reluctant to give up his grip on power and wishes to remain as king-maker within the party. Others, like Mark Gevisser, the author of the just released biography, Thabo Mbeki, the Dream Deferred10, say it is because he does not feel his work to free and redeem11 his people is done. Gevisser says it is also because President Mbeki does not trust Zuma with the future of South Africa.
"I think he is genuinely, he and the people around him, are genuinely absolutely horrified12 about what might happen if a Zuma presidency were to take over," he said. "I think they think that, if Jacob Zuma becomes president of South Africa, it will be a dream shattered, never mind deferred."
Complicating13 Zuma's aspirations is the possibility corruption charges will be reinstated against him. He denies the charges which flow from the 2005 conviction of his former financial advisor14. The judge in that case said Zuma intervened to secure business contracts for his advisor and that the only way he could do that was to use his political office. Zuma says the allegations are part of a conspiracy15 to keep him from higher office, and that the money he got was a gesture between good friends.
The contest between these two individuals has become increasingly bitter and has caused unprecedented16 divisions in the ANC, so much so that, in recent weeks, some party elders have broken with the tradition of solving problems behind closed doors. Instead, they have publicly entreated17 the protagonists18 to step aside and allow others, such as businessman Cyril Ramaphosa, to step forward.
Professor Sipho Seepe of Henley Management College says it is a view fast winning favor among ANC members, who fear an unseemly spectacle at the conference and who are asking what long-term impact it would have on the ANC.
"When they do that, it will come down to the notion that Mbeki's presidency and Zuma's behavior in the past are part of the divisive elements within the top leadership in the ANC," said Seepe. "And, what we are seeing is a very strong indication that another candidate must be sought other than these two."
Zuma, a populist leader, draws much of his support from the Congress of South African Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party, the ANC's alliance partners.
They oppose Mr. Mbeki's economic policies, which they say have enriched the elite19 and are not friendly to workers or the poor, a view disputed by some economic analysts20. Analyst Seepe notes that, at the ANC's June policy conference, delegates already agreed to strengthen existing welfare elements within in the ruling party's economic framework.
"There is a view around especially the economic policy that it did seem to express what was already happening, more of an interventionist type of government that will intervene on the side and in the interests of the poor; which the government has actually done," he added.
But, as analyst Matshiqi notes, few dispute the deepening links between political power and wealth that Zuma's supporters believe are the result of Mr. Mbeki's economic policies.
"And, what this means is that, unlike in the past, access to political power is no longer an end in itself, but has become the means toward the achievement of personal interests of an economic nature," continued Matshiqi. "And, for me, this is the major complication, this change in the relationship between the ANC and its members on one hand and state power, on the other."
Like Zuma, some of his supporters in the labor21 movement have also benefited from the financial largesse22 of powerful business leaders. However, they do not seem to be troubled by the apparent incongruity23 between these gifts and their opposition24 to Mr. Mbeki's policies. Analysts say it will be interesting to see which conference delegates seek to fine-tune those policies to prevent such conflicts of interest arising in the future and which seek a major overhaul25 of the government's economic policies.
1 endorse | |
vt.(支票、汇票等)背书,背署;批注;同意 | |
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2 gathering | |
n.集会,聚会,聚集 | |
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3 distill | |
vt.蒸馏,用蒸馏法提取,吸取,提炼 | |
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4 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
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5 drawn | |
v.拖,拉,拔出;adj.憔悴的,紧张的 | |
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6 adviser | |
n.劝告者,顾问 | |
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7 corruption | |
n.腐败,堕落,贪污 | |
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8 aspirations | |
强烈的愿望( aspiration的名词复数 ); 志向; 发送气音; 发 h 音 | |
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9 presidency | |
n.总统(校长,总经理)的职位(任期) | |
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10 deferred | |
adj.延期的,缓召的v.拖延,延缓,推迟( defer的过去式和过去分词 );服从某人的意愿,遵从 | |
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11 redeem | |
v.买回,赎回,挽回,恢复,履行(诺言等) | |
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12 horrified | |
a.(表现出)恐惧的 | |
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13 complicating | |
使复杂化( complicate的现在分词 ) | |
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14 advisor | |
n.顾问,指导老师,劝告者 | |
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15 conspiracy | |
n.阴谋,密谋,共谋 | |
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16 unprecedented | |
adj.无前例的,新奇的 | |
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17 entreated | |
恳求,乞求( entreat的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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18 protagonists | |
n.(戏剧的)主角( protagonist的名词复数 );(故事的)主人公;现实事件(尤指冲突和争端的)主要参与者;领导者 | |
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19 elite | |
n.精英阶层;实力集团;adj.杰出的,卓越的 | |
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20 analysts | |
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 ) | |
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21 labor | |
n.劳动,努力,工作,劳工;分娩;vi.劳动,努力,苦干;vt.详细分析;麻烦 | |
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22 largesse | |
n.慷慨援助,施舍 | |
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23 incongruity | |
n.不协调,不一致 | |
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24 opposition | |
n.反对,敌对 | |
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25 overhaul | |
v./n.大修,仔细检查 | |
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